For those of you, who have been following the ongoing drama and the sexual comings and goings of the senate, tune into the closing portion of today’s legislative session. We have it on good authority, a yet to be named DFL senator will rise for a point of personal privilege a a begin a conversation about the gamut of issues surrounding the senate’s liability regarding the wrongful dismissal suit being brought by Michael Brodkorb.

The full scope of this issue has yet to be aired and because it is an employment issue the members of the senate have been unusually closed-mouthed. We are expecting Senate Majority Leader Dave Senjem  (R-29, Rochester) to be asked a number of difficult questions regarding this matter. Some of those questions have already been broach in a letter to Senjem by Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook). You can see the back and forth dialogue in a piece posted by Mike Kaszuba on the Strib blog Hotdish. http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/138521474.html

Additionally, Sack put out a real telling cartoon today, which in a picture lays out many of the specifics of this story. http://www.startribune.com/opinion/138532849.html

As the details come known we will become knowledgeable to the full liability of Brodkorb’s case against the Senate. There is a price tag associated with his claims and the questions as to where the money is expected to come from need to be addressed. Since the Senate Republican Majority already resolved its budget shortfall at the expense of the Senate DFL Minority it is likely a second level of cuts could be handled in a similar fashion.

The focal point for this line of questioning is not actually Senjem, but rather Sen. Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina), because Michel was acting Senate Majority Leader at the time of Brodkorb’s dismissal. We expect ultimately Michel will be held accountable and will not be surprised if the issue results in a full blown Senate Ethics complaint.

Brodkorb justifiably feels wronged and he is seeking more than just a pound of flesh.  We are expecting more than just his name to come up as this matter get a full airing. Ironically, Brodkorb’s job, as the former Executive Assistant to the Senate Rules Committee, was to  make things difficult for the DFL Minority, he now is reliant on the DFL to get his case heard. This is more than a case of strange bedfellows and yes, we know the reference is not the deftest one we have made. Cringe if you must and giggle a little if you like.

If the ultimate goal is to put Michel on the hot seat and before an Ethics Committee then we expect his detractors will get their wish. Now the question we have yet to answer is who will make the second cut? Bakk has already left town and will not be on the floor for the session so this has put us to speculating. 

The person broaching the issue is Sen. Dick Cohen (DFL-64, St. Paul). 

The reputation of the senate has been sullied and not by any action by former Majority Leader Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) or Brodkorb, but rather the four boys who ambushed Koch and ran her out on a rail. Senators Michel, Senjem, David Hann (R-42, Eden Prairie) and Chris Gerlach (R-37, Apple Valley) all have something to account for. Sen. Claire Robling (R-35, Jordan) as involved in the original approach of Koch¸ but did not participate in the public burning, or make that press conference.          

We spoke with Rep. Linda Runbeck (R-53A, Circle Pines) and inquired as her drafting of legislation intended to eliminate the gift ban and legislator attendance at public events sponsored by advocacy organization and requiring legislator payment.  Since the creation of the Marty Laws authored by Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) in 1994.

It has been our contention the Marty Laws have been a bad thing for our state’s politics and have made the legislature as an institution a more hostile environment. Prior to 1994, legislators had the opportunity to break bread and hoist a beverage with their colleagues and not being forced to decide which events they want to attend and pay for.

Runbeck has secured the support of Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia) as a co-author. We do not know of a companion bill in the Senate.

Former Senator Ellen Anderson (DFL-St. Paul) was rejected for confirmation as Chir of the Public Utilities Commission on a party line vote of 29-37. Absent from the vote was Sen. Kathy Sheran (DFL-23, Mankato).

There are many claims this is not a partisan decision, but observers can see it as nothing but.

The rejection of former Sen. Ellen Anderson (DFL-St. Paul) will continue to set the table for a contentious legislative session. Anderson may have done nothing wrong as the Chair of the Public Utilities Commission, but she is still a high-profile target. Her past positions in the legislature are what put her at odds with the Republican majority. In spite of the hugs and kind words she received in her last day in the Senate Chamber, specifically, from Sen. Julie Rosen (R-24, Fairmont) she is expected to be cast aside for a political point.

This is the problem with divided; mean spirited government there is no instance where some is encouraged to be human to one and other.  It devolves to nothing more than a zero sum game of one-upmanship. The question is what is left for the legislature to do when compromise is off the table?   

In an even-year of the session with a balanced budget there is little for the legislature to on legislation unless they want to engage with the governor. The passage of constitutional amendments do not need a governor’s signature and because a bonding bill requires a 60% majority it is highly possible the Republican controlled legislature could do little in the way of legislating and let things sort out in the November election.

As the anti-government party, Republicans see few things from government they need. To many Republicans a bonding bill is just another long-term spending bill. In order to end the Special Session, the Republicans proposed the use of the tobacco monies as a means to finance the budget deficit. The result was an example where the state will pay twice for that money over the next 20 years, but because it was based on money coming in rather than an increase in taxes it is rationalized and justified.

Since this is a Presidential election year and Republicans, specifically those in the state senate—mainly due to the sexual impropriety and hypocrisy permeating its caucus—know the likelihood of their retention of the majority has fairly long-odds. If they are going out, why go out with a whimper rather than a bang?

Minnesota is a state with divergent political ideas between the major parties. There is little common ground and the only way to advance one’s agenda is to pummel one’s adversary. This proves politics is a contact sport and that elections have consequences.  The future of this state is in the hands of the electorate and actions of those in power should be what the election is decided on.

DFLers have made the decision in the past not to punish the previous majority in the House and that decision didn’t seem to matter when Republicans regained control, but will forcing a majority party that moving into the minority help anything? It’s clear this is doubtful. So it looks like our state politics has gone the same was as our national politics. To the victors go the spoils and to the losers all the toils.

Now we enter into the era of the perpetual campaign.

Legislating by constitutional amendment is lazy, opportunistic and in bad form. I brook’s no compromise and only perpetuates the problems in our system. Minnesota is not California where, important issues are not decided in Sacramento, but rather on the airwaves. The only saving grace is each question on our electoral ballot sees fall-off and those only motivated to vote for President become a no vote on constitutional amendments.

The total numbers of items we will see on the November ballot remain to be seen, but they seem to be breaking down into two camps; social/political and economic.

Social/Political

The Definition of Marriage Amendment was the first to pass last legislative session and will ask our citizen’s to follow the other 29 states in decided who can marry whom and enshrining discrimination in our state constitution.

We do not support defining marriage or even entitling any people to gaining advantages because of marriage at all. People should not be allowed to use their contractual or religious decisions to establishment their relationship with government it is a personal choice and should remain as such. There should be no marriage penalty or any marriage benefit.

We are expecting Voter-Id to be voted on and passed next. This will dramatically change the openness of our political system and place greater burdens on seniors, active military and college students. Interestingly enough two of the three of these groups could determine the outcome of this issue on the ballot and if they see their rights being taken away could overcome this issue. Creating impediments to active military members voting can be painted as unpatriotic and just as giving the right to vote to eighteen year olds, who were being asked to fight for their country was and issue in the 1960’s this could be an issue and rallying cry for today.

Last election, students out voted seniors for the first time in our history and if motivated to protect their rights could be a unifying issue for these two groups. An issue which links grandchildren and grandparents could be significant one.

Economic Issues

There is a short-sightedness for some of the groups organizing to oppose Right-to-Work or as it is being called the Employee Freedom Act. Trade labor groups see this as their Waterloo and seek to oppose it in order to prevent other issues like opposition to prevailing wage from being addressed.

The short-sightedness is in not as rigorously opposing the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights or the need for a super-majority vote in the legislature in order to have a tax increase. This will reduce regular spending on transportations projects and other governmental expenditures by reducing the money available each biennium. This is not just a matter for public employee unions to be concerned with, but all elements of organized labor and the state’s citizenry.

A focus on Right-to Work doesn’t take into account the entirety of the adverse impact to the operation of state government.  Instead of paying attention to the mountain they are only accounting for the molehill. 

If the three judge panel truly seeks to be non-partisan they will rely heavily on the Congressional redistricting plan submitted by the Association of Minnesota Counties, drawn up by Ramsey County Elections Assistant Director Joe Mansky. This plan is not one submitted by an organization with a vested interest in the outcome, but rather a logical approach to parsing the state into eight specific pieces. This map retains the 110 years of precedence recognizing a northeastern and northwestern congressional district.

If this plan is the crux for the final map it will change the composition of the 4th Congressional District and incorporate a larger portion of Washington County. Depending on what portion of Washington County is included will determine whether or not Congresswomen Betty McCollum (D-MN4) and Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) are drawn into the same district. As we pointed out last week, until Bachmann’s current address is truly known this remains a probability.

Because Bachmann’s district needs to lose approximately 90,000 votes it makes more sense for her district to contract away from either the St. Cloud/Stearns/Benton/Wright Counties or to lose the Washington County portion. The stalwart portion of the 6th Congressional District still remains to be Anoka County.

If the Mansky Map makes the cut, we are interested in what the 3rd Congressional District looks like. The DFL Plan calls for reconstituting the old 3rd from the time of former Congressman Bill Frenzel (R), which we have not seen since 2001. The way the court draws the lines of the suburban districts will determine who holds the suburbs for the next ten years.

Additionally, because the 5th Congressional District is over 30% minority this is the closest our state will have to a majority minority district.    

Today, we spoke with Geographic Information Services (GIS) Director Lee Meilleur and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s (R-MN6) Chief of Staff Brooke Bilke inquiring about the current address for Bachmann. The reason for the inquiry is because the address currently in the GIS database, which is the data every map is based on, lists Bachmann’s address as a property which was sold in 2008.

Questions about Bachmann’s address have been around for a number of years. When we spoke with Meilleur, he said, his office obtained the information from the state House Republican Caucus. We contacted the House Redistricting Committee Administrator Tom Freeman who said the information regarding confirmation on members of Congress residency was handled by GIS. He also relayed his belief of Bachmann residing north of 94 in Lake Elmo. After the sale of the property in 2008, Bachmann was thought to live in Hugo and other locations speculated are Lakeland and Woodbury.

When we asked her Chief of Staff Bilke, She first said, “That is a question for the campaign.” The when we pointed out the reason for the question on residency was to ensure the judicial panel had the most accurate information she confirmed Bachmann currently resides in Stillwater. We are unsure of the specific location, but her children Harrison, Lucas and Caroline last voted at a Stillwater address in 2010.        

If the judicial panel is given the most accurate information they will be able to design a map, which prevents the only two women in the Minnesota Congressional delegation from being drawn into the same Congressional District. If Bachmann lives again in Stillwater then the likely of the dividing line between the 6th and 4th Congressional Districts would be 94. This would leave northern Washington County to Bachmann and southern Washington County to Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D-MN4).      

Senate Majority Leader Dave Senjem (R-29, Rochester) surprised many when he operated with a heavy-hand on Tuesday in the Senate Rules and Administration Committee taking the bulk of the money to fill the Senate operating budget from the DFL Minority. We think his change in demeanor may be attributable to a few factors: One, his desire to be taken seriously by all parties; two, his decision to hire former House Speaker Steve Sviggum as the Executive Assistant to the Rules Committee.

We penned a story after Senjem’s internal caucus election comparing him to the current Congressional House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH8). Will Senjem Experience a Boehner Effect? (You need to be registered to follow this link otherwise it is still available on the page. Just go to http://checksandbalances.com).  Also the selection of Sviggum is a tactical maneuver which has much wisdom in it. One feature of Sviggum’s tenure as Speaker was his ability to prevent outliers from within his caucus. He was able to identify members who were soft in their support of issues within his caucus and get them to toe the caucus line.

Ellen Anderson

In our travels through the halls of the legislature, we have been asked on a few occasions what we are hearing regarding the approval of former Sen. Ellen Anderson (DFL-St. Paul) as head of the Public Utilities Commission. By our read Anderson’s future is in doubt and she will likely not be confirmed.

In a press conference held today Senate Assistant Majority Leader Julianne Ortman (R-34, Chanhassen) she said, the Senate will take up four confirmations including Anderson’s on Monday. Regarding the specifics on Anderson’s confirmation said, “I understand she did not fare well in committee. She is known to be a passionate advocate and she has a tough record to defend.” Many people believe Anderson will fall due paybacks for to the rejections of Lt. Governor Carol Molnau (R) as Transportation Commissioner and Cheryl Pierson Yecke as Education Commissioner.

At the end of the press conference Ortman answered another Anderson question and said, “

What This Means  

There seems to be a spirit shared by Republican Senators of “It’s our time.” We conclude this to mean Republicans Senators feel compelled to act on a wide array of issues changing the overall relationship between the public and state government.  Because Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) is of a different party the interest in legislating by fiat of the public is higher from Republican legislators through Constitutional Amendment.

By avoiding any action by the governor and taking issues directly to the electorate Republicans feel their view of the state will prevail. They also feel this will help them in the various elections by generating a larger base vote to support their candidates.

DFL Minority

In a follow-up press conference to the Majority, Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) challenged the data brought before the Senate Rules Committee as either inaccurate, misleading or false and characterized the staff cuts as purely partisan. He also commented on the pending confirmation of Anderson and asked what vote has she cast on the PUC puts her confirmation in doubt.

In response Ortman countered and called Bakk’s comments, “Extreme.”    

The House of Representatives opened the session with mostly procedure issues and a few speeches. Rep. Jim Abeler (R-48B, Anoka) talked about the loss of his son during the interim and DFL minority Leader Rep. Paul Thissen (DFL-63A, Minneapolis) called for job creation and not Constitutional Amendments. All-in-all it was a yawner, but such was not the case in the Senate.

The Senate opened with procedural issues as well mostly based on the need to formally elect a new Republican majority Leader. After Sen. Dave Senjem’s (R-29, Rochester) election to the post and the installation of the Assistant Republican majority Leaders things seemed to be headed for a fairly mundane start of session, which lasted until the Rules and Administration Committee meeting. In his acceptance speech on the floor Senjem seemed all accommodating toward the DFL minority expressing his desire to work with them to meet the needs of the state and called members of the senate “brothers and sisters.”

When the Rules Committee met it became clear the honeymoon had ended, the time for happy talk was over and the true face of the Senate Republican majority emerged and not surprisingly it looks the same as the old Senate Republican majority. The reason we can say this will such conviction is because of the activities which took place in Rules to address a forthcoming deficit in the Senate’s $2.67 million budget.

We have been awaiting this issue since the later part of the first session and inquired of then Rules Committee Executive Assistant Michael Brodkorb whether or not the Republican majority would be balancing the deficit at the expense of the DFL minority. To which he said, “That has not been decided at this time.” Interestingly enough, it has now been decided and the Republican majority did just that. Their proposal looks good on paper to the public. http://www.senate.mn/members/member_pr_display.php?ls=&id=4248 It shows a 5% across the board reduction bringing the inline, but when one looks past the numbers and understands the full implications it means the Republican majority will retain all of their partisan staff while the DFL minority losses 12-14 staff people at the close of session. The staff cuts of session only staff, Senate Council and Research and not compensating interns will not remove a single person from the Republican majority staff.

Now this is not a new concept the majority traditionally has the upper hand and its staff has had more luxury during election years to use vacation and comp time to work on campaigns while the minority usually has less money to work with and has its staff hired by their caucus campaigns. The difference is this go round this decision, usually left the leadership of the respective caucuses, and is now being made unilaterally by the party in control, the Republicans.

This precedent will be one not long forgotten especially if the DFL regains control of the Republican majority and then there will be hell to be paid. The last gasp of collegiality will then leave the senate and everything will be partisan all the time. If the concept of, you reap what you sow is to be witnessed it will be seen if the Republican majority changes hands.

Senjem was right in pointing out the DFL Senate Caucus has more senior staff than does the Republican Caucus. This is because the DFL was the party in control since the 1974 election. The DFL staff, in spite of being at will employees, had stability up until the 2010 election. Because of this fact a smaller allotment in the DFL minority budget is spread far thinner and employs fewer people because the average salary is higher due to seniority. It may be a cold hard fact, but DFL Senate Staff is now incentivized to work tirelessly to get the members of the caucus reelected and elect enough members to bring the DFL back into the Republican majority and had they done so in 2010 they would not be facing this situation. Complacency has no place in partisan politics and not working on campaigns and expending vacation during an election year doing so is being complacent.

It appears the Republican majority justified its actions as retribution for the decision by then Senate Republican majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) to enforce the senate hiring freeze on the DFL minority and disallowing the employment of a new Chief of Staff Cullen Sheehan. Senjem made this point clear during the debate.

There were alternatives discussed. Sen. Dick Cohen (DFL-64, St. Paul) attempted to amend the motion to call for a reduction of the permanent Republican majority staff from two down to one at the end of session, but that motion failed on a 7-4 party line vote. He also brought up the idea of reducing per diem for all members of the caucus, but failed to put that in the form of a motion.

There was one attempt at accommodation by Sen. Claire Robling (R-35, Jordan) Finance Committee Chair. She acknowledge her Committee Administrator from last session, Amy Walstien, had left for another job and she was going to attempt to share a Committee Administrator with another committee. This decision would then help reduce the majority staff by one.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) tried to bring some rationality into the discussion when he asked what the unemployment compensation costs the Senate Caucus would need to bear if this number of people were to be laid off. During this conversation Senate Secretary Cal Ludeman conveyed a figure which when fully accounted for only recognizes around a $195 million cost savings. The decision is not any way shape of form an example of shared sacrifice. It is solely born on the shoulders of the DFL Senate Minority.

The reality is this, the Republican majority recognizes due to its current troubles of sexual peccadilloes between members and staff along with the other known situations which have not yet been exposed, they will face a tough reelection year. They understand the need to retain their staff on government payroll throughout the campaign because they will need every dollar they raise to protect incumbents and if the state can pay for some of the freight for the people working on campaigns so be it. The fact is it will be hard for the Senate Republicans to raise money.

Ironically, the anti-government party turns to government jobs when it’s convenient. The reductions on the DFL staff side will mean Mike Kennedy, DFL Senate Caucus Director will become an important seasonal employer. There is a significant difference between the Republican and DFL campaigns as well. The DFL provides benefits for their campaign staff while the Republicans traditionally have not. This means Kennedy will need to fund-raise even more this legislative session and during the election year. Because it is a presidential election year and with U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) up for reelection there will be more federal money flowing into the state, which will be good for the DFL. This also means the DFL Senate Caucus staff will be far more wedded to the DFL Party than ever before.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-6MN) will seek a fourth term of office in November. She has proven to be a voracious fundraiser and lightning rod for social conservatives. Her performance in her quest to be President came with both its highlights and lowlights and has show to the entire United States the content of her character.

She was seen as a shining star for social conservatives and this election in a new district will show her appreciation or lack there of here in Minnesota. So was quick to point out her Iowa roots and now she will need to reestablish her Minnesota credentials. 

The thrum is increasing about a possible departure of Rep. Steve Smith (R-33A, Mound) from the House Republican Caucus. We have been hearing this thought for months. This potential move would come as no surprise because, the House Leadership stripped Smith of two committee chairmanships (Ethics and Judiciary Policy and Finance) over an alleged inappropriate relationship with a House staffer in late summer.  Smith, who is unmarried, has disagreed with the characterization as inappropriate.

Our inquiries into the Republican House Caucus have generated a variety of responses. Bill Walsh, Executive Assistant to the Majority Leader said, “The caucus has not had contact with him (Smith) in months.” Smith's situation did not draw as much attention as did Sen. Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) and the bevy of allegations about more extramartial affairs in the House Republican Caucus is on the rise.

Smith, a lawyer by profession, has not been a lockstep member of the Republican Caucus. He  was one of two House Republican votes against the Defense of Marriage Constitutional Amendment.  Smith’s relationship to his caucus has a familiar feel with that of former Rep. Ron Erhardt (R-Edina). Ironically, these two individuals were in the same freshmen class first elected in 1991. We have spotted Erhardt at a number of DFL events since, the last one being a December fundraiser for Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) at the home of Tom Borman.

Smith could take a path like Erhardt did and self-define as an Independent and caucus with the DFL Minority or he could make and outright switch to the DFL. The question is whether or not he would be embraced by the DFL Party and then be supported to seek reelection as a DFLer in November.

Smith is thought to be facing some health concerns and many of his detractors are taking about his social activities. It is speculated political circles experience higher divorce rates, extra-marital affairs and other societal problems such as substance abuse than does the general public.

There is speculation Republicans are trying to purge Smith from their caucus or at least ostracize him. We know he is likely to be a target for the more aggressive Republican support groups. We know this legislative session is a focal point for groups who have helped finance the Republican legislative majorities and are expecting to see legislation they support. The Freedom Club is currently meeting with Republican legislative leadership and seeking support for Right-to-Work legislation, which is now being dubbed the Employee Freedom Act.

Smith may be a target for the Freedom Club and anti-Gay Marriage forces. This triumvirate could create the perfect storm and expedite his departure from Republican ranks. If he goes the question is who will get the credit for jettisoning him from the Republican boat. Republicans who are seen as outliers are not likely to welcome into the GOP “Big Tent.” If this is true then, the people should question the actual size of the Big Tent.  

Party switching is not regular occurrence though when internal party disputes arise it often is an idea broached and does seem to be a harbinger in some elections. Recent significant party switchers include: Sen. Dean Johnson (R-DFL, Willmar), Sen. Bob Lessard (DFL-IP) and Sen. Charlie Berg (IR-DFL-I-R).

Johnson after his ouster as Senate Minority Leader in 1993 switch to the DFL Party in 1994 and subsequently has the unique distinction of being both the Senate Minority Leader and Majority Leader from different parties.

Lessard (DFL-I, International Falls) lost his chairmanship of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee mainly due to his public endorsements of Republican statewide candidates (Norm Coleman for U.S. Senate).  He switched parties and caucused as the sole member of the Independence Party Caucus in 2001. After leaving the legislature he still held some sway and is considered the father of the 2008 Legacy Amendment.

Berg (IR-DFL-I-R, Chokio) started out as a Conservative, but because there was not party designation was listed as Non-Partisan the after the change to partisan seats he was an Independent Republican switching parties to the DFL in 1986. In 1997, he claimed Independent-No Party affiliation until 2000, when he was again elected as a Republican.      

We understand Daniel Fanning will be suspending his campaign for 8th Congressional District. We have obtained a copy of the following email he sent out to supporters.

Confidential E-Mail, End of Year Review

 

Good Afternoon -

 

From the moment I began thinking about running for Congress, I always promised all of you - my good friends, wonderful family members, strongest supporters and closest advisers, that I would always be honest and forthright and would do what I thought was the overall right thing to do. I hope you would all agree that I've kept that promise. It has led me to be the only candidate that was unwilling to have blind loyalty to an irresponsible mining proposal unless and until it proved it could meet current environmental standards (which it currently does not) even if others falsely accused me of being anti-jobs or anti-mining. I also turned down a few contributions from folks very closely associated with the PolyMet Mining Proposal because I wanted them to know that my values are NOT for sale. Believe it or not, my decision to have the courage to ask tough questions and demand standards be met has already cost me several so called DFL supporters and some big contributions, as well as gotten me quite a lot of flack from my own party - even though environmental responsibility is suppose to be a staple of our party platform. Yet that is just one example. I've also been told, by some top party officials, that my stance against corporate personhood is too strong, my views on cutting wasteful military spending is too aggressive, and that some of my other deeply held values- such as supporting women's reproductive rights- are just too progressive for our district. Nevertheless, I've stayed true to myself and my beliefs and quite frankly, knowing many of you, that's why I think most of you have been supportive of me. As a candidate, and even more importantly as a progressive, I can't tell you how much I appreciate your support AND willingness to also stand up for the values you believe in. THANK YOU! (I know it sounds simple, but if the last few months and really years have taught me anything, it's that most people lack the courage to really stand up for what they believe in)

 

Having said all of that, I also now have to be honest and forthright with all of you, and myself, as we head into 2012 and assess the campaign and race. The new year and the 3 month mark are perfect time to step back and see where we and where we should be:

Over the past three months, I've traveled more than 10,000 miles and met with thousands of folks all throughout the district. I've always put all my cards on the table, stood up for what I believe in and outlined my vision and plan to move our district forward. I've been fairly well received. Our campaign signed up thousands of volunteers/folks willing to follow our campaign. We've picked up some impressive support and have some momentum. We have a fairly impressive base of grassroots support throughout the district, but its' not quite growing as rapidly as we need it to. In the last few days and weeks, I've made hundreds of phone calls seeking additional people's support and contributions. Tomorrow is the end of the financial quarter and our fundraising numbers are well below the minimal goals I set out a couple months ago. Just as importantly, if not more importantly, I've been calling through the list of previous caucus goers it is becoming increasingly clear that Rick Nolan has much more support that I originally expected. 

 

Many people indicate that have been impressed with our campaign and we would be their second choice, but they see Nolan as the guy that can secure the nomination, beat Clark in the primary (which is now inevitable) and then go on to defeat Cravaack in the General. I can't tell you how many people tell me how much they appreciate my knowledge and stances on the issues but think I should wait and run again in a few years. Along the same lines, one of the most frustrating things that I often hear is that folks agree I would be the best candidate to take on Cravaack BUT that I simply cannot secure the DFL endorsement this year so they're going to support Nolan (who they see as a lock for the endorsement) and then hope "the younger generation" gets involved in his campaign and helps him beat Clark and then Cravaack. It's frustrating, but that's the reality that I hear several times a day from folks who will be delegates again this year. The caucuses are now barely over a month away and my own call time and travels, as well as two recent polls, suggest Nolan has enough support to secure the nomination, I'm second, and Anderson and Clark are in the far distance. This is exactly how the first straw poll played out in late October as well. Many people dismissed that straw poll, for good reasons, but reality is I think a larger straw poll of DFLers would likely yield very similar results right now.

 

So, frankly, my point is that things are not looking good. The most important resources in politics are time and money and we don't have either of those working for us. Not only does our campaign not have much money, as many of you know I'm not a rich man myself either. Quite frankly, that's one of my greatest strengthens and weaknesses. Folks, myself included, like the idea of having a less than wealthy member of Congress for a change. However, it also means I have to be smart about how I use my own limited money. As many of you know, I had to leave my federal position with Senator Franken's office in order to run for office. I'm not dipping into the my own (very limited) savings/retirement account which will only last so long. Over the last few years my priorities have shifted considerably as I feel in love with a beautiful woman, who also happens to have two beautiful daughters who I now love like my own. I have to keep them in mind through this process as well. As I said in my kickoff speech, they were part of the reason it was hard to make decision to run in the first place. Part of me didn't want to because of them and how much I love being with them and knowing the risk it meant for us. However, one of the biggest reasons I did decide to run was because I think I owe those two girls everything I have to try to make their future better. It's a chance and risk I understood and was willing to take, with their support. Having said that, I also knew, as a relatively late entrant into the race, that my campaign was completely dependent on a very strong start right out of the gate and an immediate ground swell. It would have to take off fast, or it wouldn't really take off like we needed it to. We've had an impressive showing, but it's simply fallen short of what was needed. Several folks who were going to be involved with the campaign haven't been able to be as involved as they wanted to be for a variety of understandable reasons, and some folks who pledged to give money simply haven't been able to. It's a tough time for a lot of people right now, I understand. A variety of things just didn't work out like I had hoped. At the end of the day, I have nobody to blame but myself.  Some will say I waited too long to jump in, which may be accurate, and I wish I had more of an organization in place prior to jumping in. By the time we made our decision we just hit the ground running, trying to organize a campaign as we went. If we had more time and/or money, we may have even pulled it off. Others will say I didn't stay in long enough and people didn't have a chance to vote. Ideally, I would love to stay in until at least Feb 7th. However, in order to continue and do as well as we would need to in the Feb 7th caucuses we would need to hire at least two full time staff and quite frankly we don't have the resources for that right now. Even if we were somehow able to hang on until then, I fear (and actually know) many within the party have already made their minds up and will support Nolan. I don't see that changing much in the next month. Also, people have had the option of voting with their wallets for the past few months. I'm so grateful for contributions we have received. However, it simply hasn't been enough. We need to pull more from different bases and it's been harder than I expected. I know the 4th Quarter is traditionally a tough quarter to raise money, but at the end of the day we simply needed to do better than we did, period. Many who were supporting me did so because I could relate to them or actually talked about issues that impacted them such as lower income and working class families - so I never expected to be the top fundraiser or even close. However, the disappointment was in those who could give, who chose not to because they didn't want to be a public supporter of mine yet as to not offend someone else. Sadly, many folks wanted to support me (or so they claim) but wouldn't do so publicly until after I got the endorsement, which I couldn't get without their support and contributions. I need to persuade them to get involved earlier and I wasn't able to.  

 

As much as it pains me to say this: unless any of you can convince me otherwise, I really see no logical reason to continue. We don't have the money and we're running out of time. The most important thing is that we defeat Cravaack next November. Right now, Nolan seems like the only one that can do that. The fact that Clark (and Anderson) isn't going to abide by the endorsement means whoever gets the endorsement (which would be between me and Rick, and is looking much better for Rick at this point) will face her in what will be a very expensive and likely somewhat dirty primary. I know some folks are dismissing Clark, but I think that's a mistake. She'll have more money than Rick, and Rick will struggle to gain a lot of traction beyond the typical DFL base since he's 69 years old, very wealthy and a former Congressman from a different district. I think Nolan can defeat her, but it won't be easy and it will be VERY expensive. If I could somehow stay in the race a little longer, it seems all I would do at this point is divide the DFL base for a little longer but it will very likely eventually go to Rick anyway. The 8th District DFL is obviously very much favoring him and I simply don't have the time or money to overcome that right now. So, I believe it would be the best thing for the party to have get out now, let Rick have an even larger caucus victory and go in as the clearly endorsed candidate and take on Clark with the full backing of the DFL party. I don't think Rick is perfect, however I couldn't support Clark and nobody has personally disappointed me more than Jeff Anderson and the people he is surrounding himself with. I absolutely could not support him for any elected office anymore, especially Congress.  Rick is the only candidate I could even consider bringing myself to support. 

 

So, there it is. I don't like it. Nobody is as disappointed as I am! As Melissa knows more than anyone, I've had many sleepless nights over the past several days and weeks as it's become increasingly clear that it's not going to workout for us this time. The money and time just aren't there right now. I could stay on and wait it out, but I'll need to find a job and it's going to be hard to do so as a congressional candidate. If things were going well, I'd be more willing to continue to dip into our limited savings, jeopardizing our family's finances, but with things not going as well as I had hoped it's becoming more difficult to do so. The numbers just aren't there to justify that. Also, another thing that keeps me up at night is knowing I may have disappointed many of you. Again, I can't express how grateful I am for your support and help over the past few months. This experience has reminded me of what I already knew, I have the most amazing family and friends a guy could ever hope for. Melissa, the girls, my mom, dad, aunt, grandmother, brother, uncles, so many of my friends from all around the district have been amazing (if you're getting this e-mail, this means YOU!) Many gave a lot of their own time and money to help our cause and I'm forever grateful. From volunteering their time at events with me, to helping organize around the campaign, making calls, hosting hose parties, helping with social media and the website, advocating on our behalf, etc.. Thank you all so much! I love you all and could never thank you enough for giving me the this chance to chase this dream. I'll be reaching out to each of you individually but I also feel like I'm letting many of you down and that pains me. I'm letting myself down too. However, know that I've looked at this from every angle I can look at it from (and please call me asap if you have a better idea) and it keeps coming down to to this: Hey,we gave it a hell of a shot. We gave it our all for three months. No other candidate worked harder than I did in that time. I'm proud that we gave it a try because in a lot of ways we never know until we try, and I wouldn't have been able to live with myself if I hadn't tried. However, unfortunately, in this case the timing just wasn't on and the money just isn't there. I needed to make a bigger splash to overcome some of our obstacles within our own party.

 

I think we've raised the bar and we can all be proud of that. A few weeks ago I was at a forum with Jeff and Rick and I was the only one who came out and flatly said I oppose Corporate Personhood. Rick said he opposed it too, but was soft on his answer. Jeff, as usual, didn't take a position and said he needed to learn more about the issue. A week or two later he helped Duluth become the first city in MN to publicly oppose corporate personhood. Sure it was political pandering by Jeff during his last city council meeting, but we can take some credit for that. :) Other candidates have backtracked a bit on PolyMet and now talk more about environmental standards as well. They also talk about Native American Issues and issues re: low income families, which I've been talking a lot about and at first nobody else was. There are other ways in which I know we've already influenced this race and I'm proud of that, and know I couldn't have done it without you all. But, the truth is, that wasn't the goal. The goal was to win. Unfortunately, I can no longer see that happening at this point and I'm sorry we weren't able to pull it off but I am proud that we tried!

 

I can second guess a lot of things. Perhaps we should have started sooner, should have secured more money earlier on, been less vocal about some positions, etc.. but there isn't anything I can do about those things now. I wouldn't change my position on anything, because all I've been is honest. Timing was a big factor and perhaps I misjudged it. Nolan got in sooner and secured more support that I originally assumed. Some folks were on the fence between me and him up until recently, as the two progressives in the race, but now seem more likely to lean his way somewhat thanks to Clark being in the race and doing as well as she is with funds. Damn, I hate how important money is in politics but it's sadly the reality. I can't compete this time. I campaign doesn't have the funds and I don't personally have the ability to do what some of the others do and use my own money. I can't afford two houses, I can't afford to pay staff directly off the record, I can't afford much at all and sadly that puts me at a major disadvantage. That's not the only issue, but it's a big one.

 

Anyway, sorry for the long e-mail. I wanted to lay it all out there for you all because you deserve to hear what I'm thinking. I know that many of you have put a lot of your own time and resources into this campaign - and words cannot express how grateful I am-  so I didn't want to do anything thing without telling you first. With that in mind, out of respect for you and many others, I have a hard time continuing to ask people for their hard-earned money and valuable time if I know the numbers just aren't on our side. In fact, I haven't deposited the several checks we've received in the last few days as I've been waiting to see how many we'd get. So if we do pull the plug you can cancel your checks and save your money. We have enough to pay all our bills and leave debt free right now. I know something anything could happen, hang on a little longer. I wish I could stick around for a while longer but more than anything our fundraising isn't there which leaves us with little choice. We have some money, but we needed a lot more. We had some great help and enthusiasm (thanks to all of you!), but we needed a lot more from some new blood (some of which just wasn't willing to publicly support us when we needed them to). We have support, but simply not enough.  So, again unless anyone can think of something that I haven't thought of I feel it would be in the overall best interest if I bowed out gracefully soon and start the New Year on a fresh foot, look for a new job, be able to spend a little more time with my family and still look for ways to contribute to our shared values and help our shared causes. If you think I'm wrong, or if you have other ideas, please tell me. Otherwise, I'll make it public sooner rather than later.  

 

PLEASE keep all this very confidential until we make a final decision, and please delete after reading. This is only going out to about 20-30 of my most trusted friends and family members who have been involved, who have been part of our kitchen cabinet, or who might come from a different vantage point, to see if you have any thoughts prior to making a final decision. I would much rather have this conversation in person, but I know folks are busy with the holidays and are spread out throughout the district and state so it made more sense to put it all out there in an e-mail and I trust that you'll delete this after reading. I'll put out a much shorter, public statement in the next few days unless anything changes. Call or write back if you have thoughts prior to anything becoming official. Again, words can't express my gratitude for all of you enough. THANK YOU all for everything.

 

Politics aside, I wish you all a very Happy New Year. I hope 2012 is an amazing year of positive change for all of us!

 

Thanks, Daniel

The political future on the national stage for Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) appears quite bleak.  As we are writing this Bchmann is preparing to announce her withdrawal. Her 6th place finish with 5% of the support from Iowa caucus goers is a blanket rejection of her candidacy for President. She now becomes a minor footnote in the annals of Presidential politics. She successfully supplanted Sen. Phil Gramm’s (R-TX) 1988 position of 9% for poor performance by the victor of the Iowa Straw Poll.

Bachmann’s inability to generate any support from the Evangelical community is a testament to the weakness of her message for a national audience. She was even outperformed in her hometown of Waterloo, IA. The community which should have been quick to embrace her refused and in turn supported a Catholic in former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA).  The 25% support Santorum secured could have bolstered Bachmann’s campaign into New Hampshire and onto to South Carolina.

The person who should be kicking himself is former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) had he remained in the race he would have been well positioned to capture the Evangelical Iowa vote.  He converted from Catholicism in his twenties to Evangelical Lutheran. Had he remained, as the various factions repositioned themselves, it is likely his star could have risen instead of Santorum’s. Santorum proved his ability to build support with a limited campaign treasury, but it would have required a lot of hard work and determination, which are not characteristics associated with Pawlenty.

Granted, we acknowledge this is a great deal of Monday morning quarterbacking, but we found it hard to believe the Iowa Evangelical would go so far as to support a Catholic over a field of Protestants.  Additionally, the Evangelicals also rejected Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), largely because he snubbed them by announcing his candidacy in South Carolina the day of the Iowa Straw Poll and Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX-14) who is a Baptist.   

For the record we at Checks & Balances harbor no ill will toward the incoming Majority Leader David Senjem (R-29, Rochester). We have always found him to be an amiable and approachable individual. In our last article, entitled “Will Senjem Experience the Boehner Effect?” we questioned his ability to guide his caucus in any direction they are not already headed.

In the article we misstated one point which Sen. Senjem emailed us to correct. He did not contend for the Majority Leader’s position after the 2010 election. We were wrong.  In spite of comments to the contrary we apologize for any misstatement. It is always hard to glean information from a closed meeting like a legislative caucus meeting and even those who try to tell what occurred have a specific motive for spinning the results in their own favorable fashion.

In order to correct this error, we will publish the entire email from  Senate Majority Leader Senjem.

“Interesting but we need to get the history right. Did not run against Koch in 2010.  Hann did.  Winning the Majority was my huge and forever gratifying reward!  Absolutely did not want the ML job, ever!  Out of gas after all out candidate recruitment, election, and $ raising efforts, and was not ready to do the same again in 2012 and 2016.  Had 4 years in the leader box.  It was time to pass the torch.

Tuesday I won on the first ballot with a refilled gas tank.   

Dave”

During the negotiations with President Barack Obama (D) over extension of the payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH8 )lacked credibility once he cut a deal and failed to convince his caucus to support the agreement. The Congressional Republican Conference has a number of extreme, vocal members who can influence their fellow members and effectively block decisions with which they disagree. We are calling the inability to gain caucus support for a prior negotiated agreement the Boehner Effect.

We are wondering in advance of the legislative session if newly elected Senate Majority Leader Dave Senjem (R-29, Rochester) will experience the Boehner Effect. The reason for this speculation is multi-fold. First, Senjem was the Minority Leader going into the 2010 elections his caucus won a clear majority; he sought the position as leader and lost to Sen. Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo). Second, his selection took over 12 hours of caucus votes and deliberations.  We understand he became the selection by attrition or effectively, default.  Third, he is a nice guy, a decent man and won who seems open to compromise, but his caucus is not open to negotiated settlements. They are wedded in their belief system seeking smaller government, lower taxes and a conservative social agenda.

We think Senjem will be forced to negotiate with Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) with one hand tied behind his back.  If there are hands shake agreements made in a closed door meeting Senjem will be forced to gauge the support within his caucus after the fact. This means there will need to be a multi-step negotiation process. The leaders will meet, then go back to their respective corners and comeback and reengage.  It’s likely the negotiation process just became more complicated and protracted.

Letter from Bakk

If there are any indicators as to how the Senate is to be controlled by Senjem one can look at the congratulatory letter from Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook). In his letter, Bakk discusses the $2 million shortfall in the senate budget. We have heard DFLer’s speculate the deficit will come from reductions in DFL Minority staff.

Click here to read Bakk's letter.

With all of the hoopla surrounding the defection of a key supporter Campaign Chair Sen. Kent Sorenson (R-37, Indianola, IA) from Congresswoman Michele Bachmann(R-MN6) to Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX14) and co-Chairs peeling off and going to former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), questions about her performance in the Iowa are in doubt.  The Evangelical Christian caucus goers, who were a natural base for Bachmann rejected her and now her candidacy appears to be imploding.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) still carries the mantel of “frontrunner,” but his margin is ever shrinking. Santorum and Paul are surging at the same time former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) is fading. The question is where will Bachmann finish? In spite of being the only candidate born in Iowa, it appears she will wind up at the back of the pack. If she had carried the evangelical vote, the Tea Party vote and former Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R) supporters she could have done well. Now if she exceeds single digits people will be surprised.   

Today’s meeting of the Senate Republican Caucus is as much of an attempt to create a new public perception of legislative leadership, as it is intended to choose another leader. The resignation of Sen. Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) as Senate Majority Leader, due to her gender, leaves a glaring hole to file for the GOP to fill. If as we expect, the Republicans senators select a man, they will help alienate women voters especially in the suburbs.

The Majority Leader controls the senate by: deciding the order of business, making appointments to committees, conference committees, and selection of staff. Additionally, the leader negotiates with the house and the governor. Historically, this position has held a great deal of power, but due to the current situation things could alter dramatically. The need to appease the various factions in the senate GOP caucus could call for more power sharing.

The question is who will embody the right impression for the institution and the current majority. Traditionally, Republicans appeal to more law and order types or those who have strong ties to moral values when facing adversity.

Who Will Be Chosen?

The field of candidates has remained very quiet. This will be an in house decision. No one is coming forward to promote themselves prior to the caucus meeting. This means all of the discussions will be internal and when the doors of the meeting room finally open a united caucus will emerge.

Originally, we thought Sen. David Hann (R-42, Eden Prairie) would be a natural choice. He is a self-avowed conservative, an Assistant Majority Leader and a former military chaplain. On paper he appears to be a safe choice in the aftermath of the Koch resignation. He is not flashy and doesn’t draw undue attention to himself. Problem is he was party to the assemblage which forced Koch’s resignation now he is subject to the same line of questions as is Sen. Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina) What did you know? When did you know it? What did you do with what you knew?

Hann may be a victim of circumstances and being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

One name who is getting mentioned is Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen (R-11, Alexandria). He is the former Douglas County Sheriff and current Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee. He was first elected in 2006.

Since he is a law and order person, we think Ingebrigtsen is the favorite.   

In our history Checks & Balances has refrained from being the site for the distribution of gossip, rumor and innuendo, in spite the strong indicators that in the political arena, these factors play a significant role is shaping perception. In politics, perception often becomes reality.

When the proported sexual impropriety of Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) came to light it carried some familiar tones. One, the first female leader of the Minnesota State Senate was being challenged to defend her actions while leader. (Reminiscent of House Speaker Dee Long (DFL-Minneapolis) and her trials over the long distance phone card issue and hidden camera coverage of attendance at a national conference).  Two, a group of men taking charge again, similar to the Long story in that case the men were defending; in this case the men were confronting the female leader. The hypocrisy could come to light especially due to the allegations at least one of those who confronted Koch may have participated in similar activities.

The questions about who knew what and when they knew it are beginning to be asked. In retrospect, the departure of Executive Director to the Rules Committee Cullen Sheehan looks more interesting. Sheehan left the Republican Senate Caucus on November 9, 2011 to join the law firm Lockridge, Grindal and Nauen as a lobbyist. The issues about Koch came to light on December 16, 2011.

Republicans have shown a willingness to turn a blind eye to marital infidelity in the past; the patron saint of the Republican Party President Ronald Reagan (R) was the first ever elected to have been divorced. Presidential contender Newt Gingrich’s (R) campaign has been dogged with questions of his moral character after being twice divorced. Many members of the Minnesota legislature are in their second marriages. Even members of the legislative staff’s history become fodder for tabloid distribution. Sheehan was embraced by the GOP Caucus after he had had an alleged affair with a subordinate staff person, while being Campaign Manager during the 2008 Norm Coleman US Senate Campaign. He later divorced his wife and married the woman prior to the birth of their child.

Interestingly enough, when the GOP Senate Leadership Team (Sens. Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina), David Hann (R-42, Eden Prairie), David Senjem (R-29, Rochester) and Chris Gerlach (R-37, Apple Valley) stood before the media discussing the Koch situation they highlighted the issue of inappropriate relations with a subordinate. Sheehan was hired by Michel and Senjem, does this constitute a double standard, you decide.

It looks like redemption is possible, but only if the person in question is of the male gender. If as we have contended politics is often the outgrowth from perception then it is not hard to see the GOP as the Party of Hypocrisy and Double Standards.   

If the DFL Party is going to gain from the problems in the GOP it will be by fielding women candidates, especially in the suburbs. We will be watching the various legislative elections and will be especially attentive to female DFL candidates competing against male GOP candidates. In fact, we are willing to get out in front of this issue and state in Presidential Election years DFL candidates generally get a 5-point bump. This year in suburban contests with women DFLers we will extend the figure to 8-points.

This means in a two-person race the DFL candidate should perform 8-points better than did the DFL candidate in the previous election.

Rep. Connie Bernardy (DFL-Fridley) served in the Minnesota House from 2001-2006 when she left to work with Education Minnesota. She was replaced by Rep. Tom Tillbery (DFL-51B, Fridley). On December 14, 2011 filed to challenge Sen. Pam Wolf (R-51, Spring Lake Park). It is interesting to see the person listed as her Campaign Chair: Don Betzold (DFL Senator 1993-2010).

Granted this match-up is not one with competing genders, but since it took Wolf two tries to capture the seat and Presidential Elections benefit DFLers, especially with the GOP Senate Caucuses troubles, she should have her hands full with Bernardy.

Last week’s, surprise resignation announcement by Sen. Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) as Senate Majority Leader, left many people wondering the true reason for her quitting, rather than the standard line of wanting to spend more time with her family. Later, members of the Republican Senate Caucus leadership team came forward detailing their conversations with Koch about an inappropriate sexual relationship with a male Senate staffer. The absence of Executive Assistant to the Majority Caucus Michael Brodkorb has gained notice and interim Majority Leader Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina) is unwilling to comment on his departure.

Koch’s resignation comes on the heels of the resignation of Republican Party Chairman Tony Sutton, the resignation of Brodkorb as Deputy Chairman and the exit of Executive Director of the Rules Committee Cullen Sheehan. And as we first discussed on Twitter, the withdrawal of Brandon Sawalich name’s from consideration for Republican Party Chairmen after his arrested at the MSP Airport and questions about a past sexual harassment case at his company.

This large number of back-to-back resignations and withdrawals raises questions about the fiscal health and moral compass of the Minnesota Republican Party and the Senate Republican Caucus. The party is in financial disarray the current debt is thought to be approaching one million. The Senate Republican Caucus leadership election is scheduled for December 29th, may be put off until after the holidays and the Republican Party is set to elect a new Chairperson on December 31st.

Party of Hypocrisy? 

The party of “Family Values” and “Fiscal Responsibility” appears to be lacking either of these attributes and rife with hypocrisy. With this series of public relation disasters as the backdrop, we understand people who seek to save the GOP now want to apply strict scrutiny to all of their prospective candidates for any elective or party office. Additionally, people with old scores to settle can ballance their accounts. 

If certain people have their way the first questions asked of all respective candidates will be “Do you have any skeletons in your closet, which if brought to light will embarrass the Republican Caucus or Party?” or “Have you ever been involved in a sexual harassment suit? If the person is married, “Have you been completely faithful to your marriage vows?” or “Have you ever committed adultery?” On the fiscal side “Do you have any outstanding debts?” or “Have you ever filed for bankruptcy?”

In fact, as a result of the issues within the Senate Republican Caucus, we are expecting potential legal proceedings which could result in subpoenas of members of the GOP Caucus. This could mean sworn testimonies of their knowledge of the activities within the caucus and their own involvement involving issues of sexual impropriety.

People in Glass Houses 

The finger pointing which has begun it is not expected to end very cleanly. One should remember when point a finger three point back at you. This house of cards seems poised to collapse, especially when people who live in glass houses begin to throw stones. We are expecting difficult questions to be asked of members of the Senate Majority leadership team and with Senator Michel as its head, the questions are expected to commence with him.

We are hearing a vast number of unsubstantiated rumors referring to other legislator’s sexual involvements with staff and lobbyists. This situation has all the makings of a scorched earth attack where no one is to be left standing without being burned in some manner.

If the Senate Republican Caucus is a tinderbox and some are willing to start throwing matches then there may be a bit of fireworks set to go off.       

Now all Kari Dziedzic (DFL-59, Minneapolis) needs to occur is to be officially declared the winner of the special election on January 10, 2012 and be sworn in as a state senator. She bested the field of six candidates by 239 votes.  People backing Kari Dziedzic (DFL-59, Minneapolis) ran a textbook campaign. Before the election they told us they were seeking 2000 votes and in turn received 1965. As we expected the turnout was close to our prediction of 6,000 with 5,981 people casting their ballots on the DFL side.

The rest of the DFL field: Jacob Frey, Alicia Frosh, Mohamud Noor, Paul Ostrow and Peter Wagenius, all finished where we anticipated and stated prior to the election, Noor finished second followed by Wagenius. Noor did generate support from the Somali community, but the pockets of his strength were few, but in the Cedar Riverside precincts he was dominant. In Ward 2 Precinct 10, Noor carried 554 votes out of 580 or 95.5% the closest to him there being Dziedzic with 14 votes or 2.41%. In Ward 2 Precinct 9, he also performed well with 217 votes out of 309 cast or 70.23% again Dziedzic being his next closest rival with 32 votes or 10.36%.

The rest of the precincts were not complete runaways for Dziedzic, she and the rest were bested by Wagenius in two precincts in South Minneapolis and Frey led the field in one and Ostrow cut into her margins in nine of the North side precincts and won one outright. In a multi-candidate race the victor needs a strong base and incursions into the base of their opponent. Dziedzic successfully accomplished this task.

In this clearly DFL district, she will face Ben Schwanke (R) on January 10th.

The DFL victor in district 61B Susan Allen, is poised to be the first Native American woman elected to the Minnesota legislature. She swept the field of DFL candidates: Josh Bassais, Nelson Inz and Paul Dennis, carrying 82.09%. The first Native American elected to the legislature was Harold “Skip” Finn (DFL-04, Cass Lake) in 1991. Finn resigned from the legislature after 12 felony convictions in 1996.    

Now she will face Nathan Blumenshine on January 10, 2012, who lists his party as Other. Now people should bet on whether she will exceed her primary percentage in the general election.

An adage coined by Checks & Balances Publisher Shawn Towle is what we think about when talking about gambling: Gambling is a risky proposition; otherwise they would call it Winning. This seems to be the way bonding houses would view any stadium plan using bonds and backed by gambling proceeds. If people want to speculate differently they need only look at the bonds the state let to capture $680 of future tobacco earning, which are nearly guaranteed to the state based on the Tobacco Settlement. We will be paying out interest on these bonds in the form of debt service to the tune of $1.1 to 1.2 billion over the next 20 years.

The only way the state of Minnesota will get a solid interest rate on a bond is when it puts the full faith and credit of the state on the line, which are called General Obligation Bonds. If there was a track record of performance on a state run operation then it is possible for their to be a better interest rate, maybe this is why the State Lottery is looked at for administration.

Basically, the bottom line is this unless the state makes a stadium apart of its bonding request it will cost more money, unless Ziggy Wilf pays for the entire thing himself. If his focus for a site in Arden Hills is mainly about having a site to be surrounded by hotels and restaurants and also field a professional soccer team along with the Vikings then he will be able to recoup his investment in just a few years.

Better yet, he could follow the model of the Green Bay Packers and sell his shares in a public offering and get all of the money necessary for the deal and once again recoup his lose from the proceeds of the sale and then self-finance a stadium at a far cheaper cost.

Once again we will put forward our suggestion for financing the stadium as sports book. If it is professional sports then why not allow people who care deeply about their teams bet on the outcome of the games and the state take its share of the proceeds and a betting fee each time people place money down for their team.        

The special election in Senate District 59 is in effect the general election the eventual winner will face a token candidate in Ben Schwanke (R) on January 10, 2012. The field of candidates is being defined in the media not as much by who they are, but rather what they seem to represent. Kari (Karen) Dziedzic (DFL)-the feminist, Jacob Frey (DFL)-the young one, but still one of the white guys, Mohamud Noor (DFL)-the Somali, Paul Ostrow (DFL)-used to be someone, now just another white guy and Peter Wagenius (DFL)-a guy who sits at the right hand of the mayor, has a beard and says he’s a progressive, but still just another white guy.

We envision this race will come down to the difference in turn out from the north versus south portions of the district. It is sad to say that the University of Minnesota campus, which is right in the heart of this district, will not play much of a factor in the outcome because the candidate with the closest ties is Dziedzic, who hasn’t attended there in over twenty years. We understand Frey is trying to drum up support on campus, but since he attended an Ivy League school he has no connection with the current student other than being closer to them in age than the rest of the field.

The factor everyone is anticipating is what the turnout will be from the Somali community. In the 2010 Minneapolis School Board At-large primary Noor came in 5th receiving 6,222 votes or 10.63%. He lost out by 1,092 votes. This means he has a base, but since the school board election was a citywide contest, the question how many of the residents live in Senate District 59.

Noor is being touted as a leader because he has been willing to oppose the Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. This has garnered support for him from Stonewall DFL and may have helped with the endorsement from MAPE and the Minneapolis Federation of Teachers. Noor may be seen by those outside of the Somali community as a leader in this regard, but it will be next year where his leadership is necessary in this community. As different groups seek to ally with members of these emerging political leaders they seek alliances based on ideology.

The Somali community is not known for its activism in local politics or as being an impassioned political force. This community like the African-American community and the Hispanic community are generally more socially conservative and an issue like definition of marriage may be at odds with the teaching of their religions and what is talked about by their local leaders. Remember in California it was the African-American and Hispanic vote which defeated Proposition 8, which allowed marriage for same sex couples.

One factor may be in the favor of opposition movement and that is to call for opposition to enshrining discrimination in the Constitution of the state, which embraced this refugee community. Active non-voting is nearly as good as actively voting against because all votes not cast are considered no-votes, which should not offend anyone’s religion. Again, the weight of Noor’s future impact will be shown by his finishing position in this special election. We anticipate he will be capture one of the top three spots and likely finish second, but could, based on turnout, come in first.

When people seek comparisions to Noor the often mention former Sen. Mee Moua (DFL-67, St. Paul). As a Hmong candidate Moua defeated a sitting member of the legislature. She beat Rep. Tim Mahoney (DFL-67A, St. Paul) in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Sen. Randy Kelly (DFL-67, St. Paul) after his election to Mayor of St. Paul. 

This election was not a landslide by any means. Moua garnered 44.01% of the vote compared to Mahoney's 39.73%, which amounted to 170 votes. Only 3979 total people voted in this January special election primary.

The turnout in this races is expected to be around 6,000 and higher numbers are expected to benefit Noor, but the question is how in the southern part of the district the votes split are between Noor and Wagenius. On the north side the split will be bewteen Dziedzic and Ostrow. If each candidate gets their natural split of the votes it will be based on constituencies Dziedzic has an advantage there being the only woman in the field and women make up over 51% of the electorate.

The special election primary to fill the seat vacated with the election as Sen. Jeff Hayden (DFL-61, Minneapolis) creates an opportunity, with far less attention than in District 59. This race appears to being headed to fall on gender lines and this means Susan Allen (DFL) will likely head the field.

We have no other factor we can see other than gender as the decising factor. Yes, there is a Hispanic in the field, but the voting base of the Hispanic community is not fully matured and yes there are some unions supporting other candidates, but again nothing that makes anyone candidate differentiate themself from the field other than gender.

We expect Allen will prevail. 

President Barack Obama was quick to say after the failure of the Super Committee to find an agreement over additional budget cuts, that he would hold “their feet to the fire,” and would not let them off the hook. We think this Washington rhetoric is good political theater, but not realistic.

Some are speculating that during a lame duck session, after the November elections, Congress will reconvene and address these pending across the board cuts, especially since they include Defense. We think that an agreement can be reached earlier and this could happen after the end of the partisan primaries, when Republican lawmakers will be protected from any primary challenges from more conservative candidates like Tea Party members.

If the cuts currently on the table can be addressed prior to the election then the nation will be better served and the financial markets will be settled, by knowing what 2012 will hold. Stability should be the order of the day, but until after the primary period has passed Washington Republicans will keep their rhetoric heaped with red meat for the talk shows in order to shore up their conservative credentials.

It is not official until the 11:30 am press conference, but people are leaking the news of a budget surplus in the November Revenue Forecast. The state of Minnesota will be seeing an upturn in the revenue forecast in spite of expectations in the other direction. If the reports are accurate, the state is facing a $876 million surplus, for the first time since 2007.

State law requires that money replenish the budget reserve and the cash flow accounts. Of course with the Republicans in charge of the legislature they may see fit to rewrite those laws, but any change of that nature would still need to be signed by Gov. Mark Dayton's (D).  

The state’s fiscal picture will not be as bright as the forecasters at Global Insight predicted last February. The reason is the national and state economies have been improving, but not as fast as anticipated. One important assumption is built into this forecast, which is an expected renewal of the Federal payroll tax cuts and unemployment insurance.

Revenues have been up, while the sluggish GDP has resulted in a lower base. Our expectation is the forecast will be on the high side of $500 million. Revenues into the state are up $350 million of the last forecast, spending is down $150 million, but again the smaller base provides less of a foundation to build upon.  

We expect there will be little action on this announcement by Governor Mark Dayton (D) because the state is not constitutionally required to respond until the February Revenue Forecast. Republicans may begin looking into other area of the budget they can cut, though many suspect the Health and Human Service portion will be where their eye first head.

In their “wisdom” to end the stalemate during the government shutdown the two sides agreed to sell bonds on future tobacco earnings. This short-term fix is proving to be far more costly than anticipated. We receive $640 million to fill the budget hole for 2011-12, but will payout $1.1-1.2 billion over the course of 20 years. This is poor long-term planning and poor fiscal policy. We are paying twice for money we will spend once. In fact the first two years of bonds sales account for the capitalization of the debt.

Had we sold GAO bonds rather than these more speculative bonds we would have been far better off. The interest rate is higher for these less secured bonds because they were not backed by the full faith and credit of the MN state government. The bonds were rated as BBB+ rather than AAa and resulted in a higher interest rate. Sounds like a good investment. How does one get a Barclay’s account?

We will be in attendance at today’s Revenue Forecast Announcement and will be ready to as those assemble what are the drivers in this forecast. What categories are growing and where are the jobs being produced and what sectors of the economy could benefit from government stimulus in the form of a bonding bill. We also want to know what the debt capacity the state can support, meaning what is the potential size of a bonding bill.

As the primary for the special election beckons in Senate District 59, we can comfortably state this race is a contest between three people: Kari Dziedzic (DFL), Mohamud Noor (DFL) and Peter Wagenius (DFL). The favorite is likely Dziedzic.

Our rationale for the winnowing of the field is the first hurdle every campaign needs to surpass, which is proof of financial viability. Dziedzic, Noor and Wagenius all were able to secure enough early support ($3,000) for their campaigns to be eligible for state matching funds. Candidates failing to cross this low bar were former Minneapolis City Council member Paul Ostrow (DFL) and Attorney Jacob Frey (DFL).        

The politics of 59 will prove to be interesting because like countries held under the yoke of oppression in the Soviet Union there has not been a situation where all of the different factions in the district have come into play. In past decades there was more opportunity and each ethnic group has its own elected leadership. With Sen. Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) as the senator the district maintained its own form of détente. Now the old alliances and players are in the midst of changing, but one significant factor remains the North/South divide.

There is nothing more annoying to a Minneapolis Northeaster (pronounced Nord East) than listening to the dictates of a person from South Minneapolis. The fact that the Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) is from Southwest Minneapolis is not lost on any Nordeaster.

With Wagenius hitching his wagon to the Mayor and some argue claiming credit for everything done in the Mayor’s office and not knowing when some of the items he perceives as good are not seen that way by others. An interesting item to note is a discussion on the Minneapolis issues list which is discussing Wagenius proposing a bike licensing fee. Now with Minneapolis being the #1 city for bicycling this may seem like a good revenue stream, but it will do nothing more than anger a sleeping community.

Bicyclists are not the more organized political faction, but then they never had a reason to be. If this is a “good idea” then run with it. We think any bicycling fee should be tied to something that might actually help the community other than expanding the tax/fee base. Back in the 1970’s people had to register their bicycles, but there was a valid reason this way they could record the indentifying numbers on the bike to assist in recovering it if a theft occurred. We think going back to the future might be a good thing and having law enforcement working on our behalf recovering stolen property might be a good community service.

Factors in this race: Name Recognition

Dziedzic and Wagenius have the name. In Dziedzic’s case her father Walt has been a public figure on the east side for over 50 years. He was first a cop, then city council member and finally park board commissioner. Some will argue the only symbol more associated with the Eastside than the Grain Belt beer sign on Nicollet Island is Walt Dziedzic. Similarly, Wagenius’ mother Jean has been a fixture in St. Paul at the state legislature representing South Minneapolis since 1987. She has been a stalwart for environmental issues much to the chagrin from more conservative DFLer’s and a mote in the eye of Republicans.  

Dziedzic has not followed closely in her father’s footsteps, but does have her own political resume’. She was on Paul Wellstone’s original staff and rode in the Green Bus to Washington DC with Paul and Sheila. She went on to work for Mike Freeman (DFL) and Amy Klobuchar (DFL) in the Hennepin County attorney’s office and has spent the last five years working for County Commissioner Mark Stenglien.  Additionally, she worked for Roger Moe’s 2006 gubernatorial race along with numerous state, local and county candidates. She did make a bid for Minneapolis City Council in 2003, losing out on the DFL endorsement to Olin Moore (DFL), who then lost to Don Samuels in the special election.

Wagenius in turn has moved from state politics to city politics. He currently is the Policy Director for the city of Minneapolis and has worked as a researcher in the Minnesota State Senate. His political work is less extensive than Dziedzic, but his work in the city has gained him both staunch allies and sharp critics. This is generally a testament to being able to get things done, but may also be an example of not fully addressing the issue raised by all sides.

Noor is a third factor in this race. He was a candidate for the Minneapolis School Board in 2010, but failed to capture a seat. He has been endorsed by MAPE (MN Association of Professional Employees), Minneapolis Teachers Federation and Stonewall DFL in this race, but these endorsements seem to do more with the community he comes from than just him as the candidate. Noor is a Somali immigrant who fled his war torn home 12 years ago. He is an emerging community leader for a growing block of Minneapolis voters. Stonewall DFL is somewhat interested in the outcome of the Senate District 59 race, but largely they want to secure support from the Somali Community to oppose enshrining discrimination of any kind in our State Constitution and seeks support from all quarters to do so. Additionally, these labor unions are outreaching into these communities, recognizing them as part of the growing Minneapolis tapestry and recognizing their contributions to the community.

Coalition Candidate            

Dziedzic is proving her political acumen and independence. She is successfully developing a support base made up from normally separate political camps. As the only woman in the race it is not a surprise to see support from Rep. Phyllis Kahn (DFL-59B, Minneapolis), but knowing Kahn’s history one would be hard pressed to see her and Walt Dzeidzic line-up on the same side of any issue.  As the dean of the Minneapolis legislative delegation and tied for serving in the House the longest, Kahn is an ardent, unapologetic feminist.

When we spoke to Kahn about this race she was quick to point out (Kari) Dzeidzic’s courage to seek a degree from the U of MN in IT Engineering rather than an unscientific academic pursuit. She speculated about whether or not Kari had her father’s blessing to seek a degree in this discipline. But we believe the shadow of Walt Dzeidzic may be fading which will allow Kari to have her full due.

At a recent Kari Dziedzic’s fundraiser, attracting150 people and raising over $30,000, Kahn said, “Everything you’ve ever hated about Walt, you will love about Kari. And everything you’ve ever loved about Walt, you will love about Kari.” Kari is identified as a pro-choice, anti-stadium, progressive liberal, but she is also rooted in her community. She volunteers at community events and organizations and serves on the Catholic Elder Care Board. She is intelligent attractive and like her father, few have a bad thing to say about her. In effect she brings the feminists and traditional Democrats together.

Kari Dziedzic also bring together some of the new Nordeaste politicians. HSe has support from First Ward council member Kevin Reich,  Park Commissioner Liz Wielinski (Someone who fought toe-to-toe with Walt) and School Board member Jenny Arneson have endorse Dziedzic over Ostrow or Wagenius.  As early as ten years ago,  Wagenius or Ostrow would have been the fresh faces,  but now a new group of Eastside leaders have emerged. They don’t want a Southwest Minneapolis takeover of their district by the RT Rybak machine and they don’t want to see the tired, imperial attitude of Ostrow resurrected.  This juxaposes Kari Dziedzic with a freshness, inclusiveness and willingness to work with everyone attitude has won the new group over.

Adding to this list is support from the established politicians like County Commissioners Mark Stenglien, Peter McLaughlin (DFL) and City Council Members Diane Hofstede (DFL), Barb Johnson (DFL) and former Mayors Al Hofstede(DFL)  and Sharon Sayles Belton (DFL) and Kari Dziedzic has assembled an orchestra of support.

If we were betting on the race in Senate District 59 our money would be on Kari Dziedzic.

Last week, various newspapers around the state publicly discussed a dispute between the DFL Party, Congressman Collin Peterson (D-MN7) and Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D-MN4). The point of contention was the DFL party’s’, under the leadership of Ken Martin, submittal of its proposed map for realigning congressional districts for the next ten years. The rationale offered for the criticism of the DFL party's plan was presented in purely political terms. Peterson called the DFL map, “a blatantly partisan map” and later McCollum's Chief of Staff Bill Harper, called the DFL map “hyper-partisan and bizarre.” Now we must be clear redistricting maps are mainly incumbent protection tools, but this Democratic spat is interesting to follow.

We delved into this issue a bit and here is what we learned. On November 17, 2011 DFL Party Executive Director Corey Day sent a message to all Democratic members of the MN Congressional delegation: Tim Walz (D-MN1) Betty McCollum (D-MN4), Keith Ellison (D-MN5) and Collin Peterson (D-MN7). The message contained a new, proposed Congressional map, which all members of the delegation agreed, but his map is not what was ultimately submitted to the Judicial Redistricting Panel by the DFL party. Rather they submitted a map thought to be designed by their lawyers Mark Elias (Most notable from his work as lead attorney on the Dayton and Franken recounts) and David Lillehaug (Former U.S. Attorney, also involved with the Dayton and Franken recounts and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000 where Martin was Campaign Manager and Day Field Director) now referred to by the panel as Martin and signed off on by the DFL Working Redistricting Group. (See below)    

The Judicial Redistricting Panel was formed by the State Supreme Court in anticipation of its need to prevent a constitutional crisis, because of the failure of the legislature and the governor agreeing to any redistricting bill. The DFL Working Redistricting Group consisted of DFL party leadership, representatives from Gov. Mark Dayton's (D) office and U.S. Senators Amy Klobuchar (D) and Al Franken (D), the DFL Congressional delegation and both DFL legislative caucuses.

Here is what is at issue. When the Martin map was approved by the DFL Redistricting Working Group, the Congressional members were surprised at the substitution of the Martin map because it was a document they had not approved, yes they had minority representation on the working group, but ultimately not final say. In fact, because the working group included representatives from Klobuchar and Franken’s (D) offices, questions were raised after the final decision as to the relevance inclusion of office-holders not affected by redistricting.  This may have been an easy way to stock the vote.

Since the DFL party’s submittal was other than what was being discussed on November 17, an alternative map was submitted by another group who supporting the prior map they were allow into the case as additional plaintiffs and designated as Britton in panel documents. (See below)

This internal party fight has many, who looking from without scratching their proverbial heads.  The DFL map maintains the separation between McCollum in the 4th Congressional District and Ellison in the 5th Congressional District, solidifies the first Congressional District for Walz with a better DFL index, improves Democratic chances in a traditional Democratic stronghold currently held by Congressman Chip Cravaack (R-MN) and creates opportunity in the district held by Erik Paulsen (R-MN3).

Arguments for the Martin map are, it’s focused on the future and looking for new political opportunities while maintaining traditional DFL strongholds. On the other hand critics see the consolidating in the 7th Congressional District as an acceptance that after Peterson is gone it will return to a Republican district. With this thought then enhancing Democratic opportunities in the 3rd Congressional District makes sense if the purpose is at minimum to retain a DFL majority of 5-3.

The more sexy result of the Martin map is the pitting of McCollum and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) against each other. This will likely never happen because many think Bachmann will not run for reelection. Since her Bachmann’s Presidential Campaign is still underway and since she has gained attention from the national spotlight Minnesota may now be just too small of a pond to her. If this is the case then a new candidate will emerge in the 6th. If Bachmann does not seek reelection we expect someone, like current House Majority Leader Matt Dean (R-53, Stillwater) or Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch (R-19, Buffalo) to step to the plate, but it will clearly depend on where the lines are draw.  

So now the court will have to decide.

Proposed Maps:

Martin Statewide Congressional District Map (Official DFL) http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/Martin_Intervenors_Congressional_Map_Minnesota-2.pdf

Martin County Metro Congressional District Map (Official DFL) http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/Martin_Intervenors_Congressional_Map_11_county_metro-2.pdf

Britton 11 County Metro Congressional District Map (Other DFL) http://www.checksandbalances.com/images/attachments/initially_proposed_congressional_metro_map.pdf

Britton Statewide Congressional Map (Other DFL)

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/Britton_et_al_Congressional_Plan_State_Map.pdf

Republican Metropolitan Congressional District Map (Republican) http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/Hippert_Congress_Metro.pdf

Hippert Statewide Congressional District Map (Republican)

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/Hippert_Congress_State.pdf

Deciding the Criteria:

In addition to the map the question over the criteria for determining the map is another issue. In their first submittal after being allowed to participate Britton asked the current legislative districts be deemed as unconstitutional as is standard practice to create the urgency needed to affect any proposed changes.

Proposed Criteria:

Secretary of State:

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/31_-_Motion_to_adopt_redistricting_critera_Ritchie.pdf

Hippert: +/- 1% allowable deviation.

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/34_-_Motion_to_adopt_proposed_redistricting_criteria_Hippert.pdf

Martin: allow for “de minimis” and accounting for communities of interest; i.e. neighborhoods, transportation corridors, well established natural divisions, counties ect.

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/33_-_Motion_to_adopt_propsed_redistricting_critera_Martin.pdf

Britton: agrees with “de minimis” but also seeks a maximum permissible deviation of +/- 0.5%.

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/2011Redistricting/32_-_Motion_to_Adopt_Redistricting_criteria_Britton.pdf

One Possible Alternative Option

There is another potential result which could occur over this redistricting question, which due to the hyper-partisan nature of our current political climate, many people doubt could happen. There still is the possibility of Governor Mark Dayton (D) and the Republican controlled legislature coming to an agreement on a specific set of maps. If they were to pass a bill and it were signed into law all of the court action would cease it would become a moot point, and the state of Minnesota would save money.

Peterson could build support for his own map to pass the legislature and we hear he may be trying, but the problem is he may only be able to get agreement with 3 of the 4 members of the Republican Congressional delegation.

The Fear Bachmann Factor

Whether she is running or not, Republicans do not want to stoke the ire of Bachmann. Since she has not made her plans known no Republican member of the Republican delegation wants to be perceived as restricting her options. Of course if someone like Dean saw his own opportunity then it might be a different story.   

Focus on the Economy

We believe it is our state’s economic interest to view this redistricting question, especially the Congressional Districts from an economic perspective. When the apportionment of districts happened Minnesota squeaked across the finish line and retained all eight Congressional Districts, while Wisconsin lost one. In 2020 we will be in a similar position unless we have significant in migration into Minnesota.

Historically, during good economic times our state outpaces other states nationally, but especially in the region in positive population growth. The main reason being the diversity of our economy is our ability to incorporate new technologies, the quality of our education system and its effect on our workforce.

Whatever map is drawn it should focus on retaining the eight congressional districts and the quality of the representation and their ability to secure federal dollars for economic improvements should be what any Minnesotan who cares about this state is concerned about.        

The half page spread, which ran in the Star Tribune over the weekend calls for a redirection of any revenues accumulated from a Viking’s Stadium, which would normally go into the state’s General Fund be set aside to pay for the construction. This is not a novel approach it sounds a lot like the creation of a Tax Increment Financing (TIF) district. This is a mechanism used by government to forgo tax collection for a set period of time to entice a business to locate in a specific area or to expand its current operations.

The problem with this idea is the revenues generated by a Viking’s Stadium are expected to enhance the state not be a replacement set for costs incurred. Viking’s owner Ziggy Wilf is getting bad advice and most people attribute this to the existence of Vikings Vice-President Public Affairs/Stadium Development Lester Bagley. At the legislature Bagley is akin to a character from Survivor. He has outlasted a number of Viking’s owners.

The question of whether Ranked Voting in St. Paul was a success or a failure? True is, it depends. The answer is largely dependent upon what factors used to determine the outcome. Friday before the election Checks & Balances Publisher Shawn Towle wrote a column in the Pioneer Press entitled: Testing turnout, cost, participation in Tuesday's election in St. Paul. If we use these three factors for statistical measurement we may get a true answer.

Let’s start by using the first factor, turnout.  In 2007, 30,620 people voted in the city of St. Paul. In 2011, the citywide turnout was 30,682 and increase of .02%, but only 29,887 people voted in the ward elections, a drop of nearly 1%, where Ranked Voting took place. In this election there were six contests for the seven council seats. In three of the wards there were multiple candidate contests in Wards 1, 2 and 3, with only one seat, Ward 2 resulting in reallocation of votes based on Ranked Voting. Only Wards 1 and 2 were challenges to seated incumbents and Ward 3 was an open seat.

In 2007, the turnout Ward 1 was 4,579 voters and the number dropped to 3,593 in 2011 or -7.84%. Ward 1 is the highest majority minority ward in St. Paul. In Ward 2 a slightly different picture emerged. The turnout in 2007 in was 5,155 and in 2001 it was 5,361 or an increase of 206 votes or +.38%. In Ward 3, the numbers are skewed because this was an open seat, but in 2007 the figure was 4,369 or +44.2%. In this race it is commonly known incumbent Councilmember Pat Harris did not face a challenge from Gerald Mischke. Though in 1999, when Harris was first elected 15,173 people voted in Ward 3, granted this was the St. Paul Baseball Referendum. This would mean this race saw a 51.46% fall from the last open seat contest. As we argued originally, Ward 3 is an outlier.

The resolve on the issue of cost will need to wait until mid-December since the Ramsey County Elections Division is still tabulating and paying bills.

Finally, on the issue of participation the number are clear. Again Ward 3 is an outlier and not part of the analysis, but we will discuss it to silence the critics. In Ward 1, 54.63% of the voters chose a second choice, far from a ringing endorsement of the system by participation, 72.36% far greater in the most contentious race on the 2011 ballot and in Ward 3 62.34% exercised the option for a second choice.

In this case, where the option applied voters utilized it. In fact in Ward 2, where incumbent Council-member Dave Thune (DFL) faced, Bill Hosko (IND), Jim Ivey (GR), Cindy Schanno (IND) and Sharon Anderson (IND), some voters opted for all five choices at a 10.45% of the time, meaning they voted for every candidate in the race or provided a Write-In.

Clearly, the remaining issue, cost is the most important of all of these factors. After the election we spoke with Ivey would remained jubilant about the process in spite of effectively coming in third after being second. He debated about the process and the ability to connect with voters on issues. He tried to argue and convince based on “qualitative” factors, because this was “about the issues.” We contended a subjective value such as a feeling index is a nice to know, but has no scientific basis in fact.

To accurately measure the results of this election, far more quantitative measures need be applied. Fact, a system supported by more progressive candidates and parties resulted in the reelection of the incumbent. Fact, the more conservation candidates’ voters determined the final outcome of the election.

Those watching the reallocation process kept loose track of all of the voting preferences. Fact, the entirety of Ivey’s second place votes were never seen because they were located on Thune first choice ballots and Thune second choice voters were conversely on Hosko ballots. Granted this is somewhat conjecture, but if Ivey had survived the reallocation process and his ballots still been in play the results would have been largely the same.  Thune would have prevailed, but the margin would have been closer and Thune potentially would have fallen below 50% and scored a plurality victory. 

To answer the question of whether or not Ranked Voting was a success or failure is unanswerable until the final tallies are in.

If Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) and the Republican legislative majorities want to solve the Viking’s Stadium issue the answer is simple, sport’s book. We argue mainly this idea based on the legal term nexus, meaning a connection or a link.

If the state of Minnesota seeks a funding source for a stadium and the public opposes an increase in taxation then apply nexus and generate a revenue stream from the activity seeking support. Former Governor Jesse Ventura (IP) deserves some credit for this idea, but why can’t the state authorize sports book betting parlors at or in close proximity to all major sports venues? Better yet why not authorize an online system to cultivate the revenue potential.

There are a number of activities, thought to be disreputable that when supported by government is then deemed acceptable and gambling is one. If the state were to put a 15% surcharge on all bets made the surplus revenue would ensure our state maintains a surplus in perpetuity, in fact once the current deficit is erased and all programs are fully funded, Minnesota could be like Alaska and give out checks at the end of the year.

This idea may be an expansion of gambling, which it is, but the cow is already out of the barn on that issue. This solution, will not adversely affect the Native American Tribes and their current operations. It will not put slots in bars throughout the state or create a downtown or Mall of America Casino. It is a simple answer to a problem with the most direct connection between the two positions.

In general, in this climate of partisanship and universal distrust, the best solution to any problem is when both sides are mutually dissatisfied with the outcome.

4:15 PM

Unofficially, Hosko received 307 votes. Thune wins with 53.53%.  Ironically, this is the greatest amount Thune, who is notorious for close elections has had. 

4:14 PM

Unofficially, Thune picked up 717 votes.

3:40 PM

Informally, Thune picked up 480 votes compared to 300 for Ivey with about 1/3 of the stack to go.

3:00 PM

Official numbers Thune 2153, Hosko 1567 and Ivey 1521. Ivey dropped. The observers from Thune's camp said the Ivey votes were running 2-to-1 for Thune so he should prevail, but the question is will he carry a majority?

2:45 PM

Hosko did surpass Ivey in 2nd choice votes the informal numbers are 189 to 86 basically 2-to-1. Far beyond what he needed to have his vote total place him in second place leapfrogging over Ivey. Thune picked up 74 votes. Now the question will be whether Ivey's votes show more support for Hosko than Thune and can also close the 485 vote margin.

As we saw with the other votes counted Thune did pick-up support from people who back other candidates earlier on the ballot.  

2:12 PM

Thune's number is 2078 one less than election night. It is thought to be an overvote on one of the set aside or Suspended ballots.

1:40 PM

Ivey's number is the same as election night at 1435.

1:31 PM

Hosko's number is the same at 1378.

1:24 PM

Election judges stacking ballots by 25 as required by law. 

1:12 PM

Here is the form they will be filling in. They have counted Write-In, Anderson and Schanno. Write-In stayed at 8, Anderson picked up 2 for 120 and Schanno picked up 1 for 344.  

12:40 PM

The election judges broke for lunch shortly after 12:10 PM and are now ready to count the votes for each candidate. Once counted, we will know the starting point from which to reallocate.

11:00 AM

They are moving onto the westside precincts, which are significantly smaller. AN interesting fact is there was one vote cast in St. Paul Ward 2 Precinct 10. This is the Union Gospel Mission.

10:00 AM

They are still sorting. The votes into first choice piles

9:55 AM

We are onsite at the only Ranked Vote recount for the 2011 St. Paul city elections in Ward 2. Based on the results of Tuesday Night’s election Incumbent Councilmember Dave Thune (DFL) holds a 38.78% lead over Jim Ivey (GR) with 26.77%, Bill Hosko (IND) 25.70%, Cindy Schanno (R) with 6.40% and Sharon Anderson (IND) with 2.20% and there were 15% from Write-in.

The ballots with Write-in names, Anderson and Schanno votes will be reallocated to the voter’s second choice and since the cumulative total of those votes accounts for 8.75% of the overall they could affect which candidate are in first or second place. Irony would be if the Green Party candidate Ivey falls to third since Schanno and Anderson are the more conservative candidates. If the 2nd choices on those ballots are reallocated by ideology then Hosko could come up and pass Ivey.

Our discussion with Thune’s camp says they are up  by 32 on the second ballot.

Interestingly enough there were 10.45% of the people who cast ballots in five instances. Excluding write-ins from this group means the bulk of these people voted for every candidate ont he ballot. The way they likely ranked them is from highest to lowest for who they wanted in office. 

Turnout was quite low in the 13th precinct of Ward 4 today. We are not sure if this is consistent across the city, especially in Wards 1, 2 and 3 who have legitimately contested races. We expect the DFL endorsed candidates for school board will prevail, but also expect Al Oertwig to have a good showing.

In our estimation, there will likely be only to races where Ranked Voting will take place, those being in Wards 2 and 3. We expect Ward 1 incumbent city council member Melvin Carter III (DFL) will secure the requisite 50+1%. St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman (DFL) door knocked for him on Monday. The question in Wards 2 and 3 is what the margin will be between the two front runner candidates.

We expect incumbent city council member Dave Thune (DFL) will be in first place, but the question is by how much and over whom. We are unclear who will perform better Jim Ivey (GR), Cynthia Schanno or Bill Hosko, who calls himself the Independent non-Partisan candidate. In 2007, Hosko received 46.54% to Thune’s 53.01%. As the votes are reallocated and candidates are dropped off where their votes go. The magic number is 47% if any candidate receives 47% on the first ballot we believe that person will be the winner. As stated we expect Thune to lead the question is by what margin.

Online Campaigning

Hosko had ads up on Facebook saying the following: "We hope Bill is your first choice by now—but if not second choice votes are welcomed too."

In Ward 3 it’s a toss up. Anyone we have spoken with has little insight on this race. Chris Tolbert (DFL) has the DFL endorsement, but Ward 3 in the most conservative Republican leaning Ward in the city. John Mannillo (DFL) has high name recognition but he is associated with downtown development not with this ward. Mayor Chris Coleman announced on Facebook he would be door knocking for Tolbert yesterday as well.

Ranked Choice Style Literature

Curtis Stock in Ward 4 is campaigning with literature stylized to look like the ballot voters will see in the voting booth. The exceptions are he fails to identify his opponents and places his own name in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Choice lines.  

The other race were watching is in Ward 5. Incumbent council member Lee Helgen (DFL) is in a pitched battle with Amy Brendmoen (DFL) this race will come down to the east side of the district versus the west side. If Helgen prevails it will be due to his ability to break even on the west side and prevail on the east side. If not Brendmoen could suceed in spite of the outlandish doo.     

All and all if turnout is low it should favor the incumbents, but the margins between candidates could also be small. We expect Ranked Choice will have little in the way of overall effect and only one incumbent candidate Thune, who coincidently opposed the change to ranking of choices, may fall victim to its application.   

Today, five days before the St. Paul City elections the Pioneer Press ran a commentary from Checks & Balances Publisher Shawn Towle against Ranked Voting. The piece is fairly self-explanatory and hopefully the supporters will address the points made in the article and be prepared to justify the outcome of the election based on the aspects of electoral turnout, cost and actual participation in the voting system.

If people vote for one candidate then Towle contends the rejected the change in the system. It is that simple there is no cost to casting multiple votes and if the extra ink goes unused that is not enough of a cost savings to justify the new multiple candidate voting system. Here is the article: http://www.twincities.com/opinion/ci_19258562

We just got a tweet from the Reserve Bank of Minneapolis we think anyone interested in the national economy or the state economy should be looking at. The 2007 Recession is showing the most anemic growth of any of the recessions measured: 1953, 1957, 1960, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2007. Only in 1980 did Minnesota’s recession figure dip below what we see from 2007.

The problem with the supply side economics is the tax breaks are for the producers and in our current skewed economic system the focus needs to be applied to the demand side of the equation. Because we have shipped the bulk of our manufacturing overseas and we are dependent on 60% or better of our GDP to come from consumer spending the only way out of this recession is through more spending; Spending by government, spending by businesses, spending by consumers and support of more spending by lending institutions and government grants.

Its time to demand a demand side economic system demand your politicians spend more. Then the pie will grow. To see the figures go here: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm

The field for the special election in Senate District 59 and House District 61B are know fully known. In Senate District 59 the candidates are: DFLer’s Kari Dziedzic, Jacob Frey, Alicia Frosch, Mohamud Noor, Paul Ostrow, and Peter Wagenius. Ben Schwanke is the toke Republican. Cordelia Pierson withdrew after Dziedzic entered the race.The  race will be a whirlwind to the finish with the primary occurring on December 6th and the winner of that contest will be the likely senator.

When we review the field of candidates we saw a significant void in the field. Since this is the senate seat for the University of Minnesota Minneapolis campus we were surprised at the lack of a student candidate. With the number of people in the residence halls, fraternity and sorority systems along with the number of people in the various apartment buildings around the campus student could have owned this seat. This is not much of a challenge the perception of students being apathetic in spite of the activity of the OccupyMN movement.

Since many of the names are familiar to the Minneapolis political world, we have some early intelligence and analysis on this race. One major factor is the fact there will be no DFL endorsement. This is a huge decision. If the Central Committee of Senate District 59 is unable to get its act together then a few of the candidates will have to organize strictly on their own and may likely fall be the wayside without an endorsement, specifically, we mean Frey, Noor and Wagenius.

In our minds these three candidates would have benefited most from an endorsement. Frey has been subtly angling for a shot at the seat for nearly a year and was hoping Sen. Larry Pogemiller (DFL) would not seek reelection. Well Pogemiller beat him to the punch. He has made in roads with the GLBT community by organizing the Big Gay Race, which would have been helpful securing DFL Stonewall support in an endorsement fight.

Wagenius is tied to Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) and we’ll have to see what benefits that brings. Because of Wagenius’ personal style he is seen as somewhat heavy-handed and having an overly inflated opinion of himself. Many who have gone to war with him in the past are glad to see him putting himself out there and are sharpening their knives for the ordeal.

Noor is a member of the DFL Education Foundation and his ties in party circles could have leveraged some opportunity. His work to close the achievement gap could be appealing to minority communities.

With a crowded field of men Dziedzic and Frosch have an opportunity to benefit because of their gender. Frosch is a child care advocate Dziedzic has stronger name recognition. The lack of an endorsement means she (Dziedzic) can focus on building labor support which will like fill the void of a DFL endorsement. She has an interesting political past being the daughter of long-time city council member and park board member Walt Dziedzic.

Her brother Joe is a local sports hero, who played for the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburg Penguins. She has shown her own strength of character when she challenged the unwanted advances of Minnesota North Stars owner Norm Green and filed a sexual harassment suit. Many believe this is why he moved the team to Dallas. Here is a Sports Illustrated article about the move. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1138154/2/index.htm

Here is a Los Angeles Times article about it as well: http://articles.latimes.com/1993-03-26/sports/sp-15195_1_norman-green

Minneapolis City Council member Ostrow once again proves he is interested in moving beyond city hall by seeking an open seat. He contended against Keith Ellison (DFL) in 2006 and his campaign is attributed with having shoveled dirt regarding Ellison’s marriage. We’ll see if any of those chickens come home to roost this go round. We know Ostrow’s campaign had debt since he still has a past due bill with Checks & Balances.  

We have already provided some background on the candidates in the 61B field. The candidates in 61B are: DFLer’s Susan Allen, Josh Bassais, Paul Dennis and Nelson Inz. Nathan Blumenshine created a new entity he calls Respect and as expected Farheen Hakeem is the Green Party candidate.

The Office of Management and Budget announced the date for the release of the November Revenue Forecast as December 1, 2011. We will be able to see locally if our state is performing better than the national average and what sectors are improving more rapidly than others. This will set the stage for the 2012 legislative session until the final figures are know with the February Revenue Forecast, which is what legislators will respond to in the upcoming session.

Guilt by association is a slippery slope in politics and lobbyists by virtue of their profession are easy targets. Last week, OccupyMN sent out a press release, which failed to disclose two important pieces of information. The target of their ire James DeMay did host a fundraiser for Hennepin County Sherriff Rich Stanek, but he was not employed by U.S. Bank at the time and he is no longer an employee of U.S. Bank. Anyone with Internet access at the U.S. Bank Plaza could have searched the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board to see the dates of Demay’s registrations.

Here is the press release:   

Members of OccupyMN will rally and set up tents at U.S. Bank Plaza demanding a moratorium on foreclosures at 11:30am on Thursday, October 20th. By setting up tents at a major financial power, they hope to call attention to the ongoing foreclosure crisis and support those who have lost their homes to the corrupt economic policies of the 1%.

U.S. Bank’s CEO Richard Davis saw his pay more than double to $18.8 million this year, as Minnesotans struggle to make ends meet. There have been more than 25,000 foreclosures in Minnesota in 2010 alone.  Meanwhile the bankers responsible for the financial crisis have yet to be held accountable.

"We have been clear since the beginning; the corruption of big banks and other corporations are responsible for our country’s economic recession. We set up OccupyMN to hold these corporations accountable" said organizer Alexa Lindh

“OccupyMN stands in solidarity with and invites foreclosure victims to visit the People's Plaza and join us as we stand against the corrupt banks that are ruining our country and tearing families apart.” She added.

This action also addresses the practical needs of Occupiers for shelter and warmth, after tents were destroyed and forcibly removed from the South Plaza at 1:00am on October 16 by Hennepin County Sherrif Stanke’s Deputies.

In Hennepin County, the office of Sheriff Richard Stanek is responsible for enforce the decisions of US Bank and other banks to foreclose on families.

In 2006 Sherrif Stanek received a campaign donation from James Demay, former Vice President, Director of State Government Affairs at U.S. Bank. In light of this information it should come as no surprise that he has been unwilling to help us find a sustainable solution to sleeping in the plaza while we stand up to big banks.

We have often wondered what is spewing out from the Hennepin County Garbage Burner. The smoke stack is constantly discharging a steady stream of smoke, but we never hear what is contained in that smoke. The existence of the garbage burner begs a number of questions. Is there a study of the waste from the stack? What is being burned and what chemicals are we being exposed to? Is medical waste being burned? What is the mercury content of the smoke? Can downwind residents sue Hennepin County for pollution?

Last week, Jennifer Gisslen Lee felt her inquires to Hennepin County Commissioner Gail Dorfman (DFL) were going unanswered and then chose to take questions public on the Minneapolis Issue Forum. She posted the following:

October 20, 2011


Dear Commissioner Dorfman,

This is my fifth attempt to contact you. As a resident of your district, I'm troubled that I haven't received a response from you on the HERC issue, despite multiple attempts over the past 6 months. My level of frustration has built up so much that I've resorted to attempting to contact you via a public issues forum.

Concern about the HERC garbage burner:

I first contacted you via email on April 18, 2011. The subject of the email was: HERC, possible expansion & need for appropriate EAW and EIS

I would like to know your position on the HERC garbage burner and the efforts to expand it. The majority of Minneapolis legislators sent a letter to the Hennepin County board back in April requesting that an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) be done. The Star Tribune article about the
legislators' request can be found here - http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/119958369.html. I can't tell you how disappointed I was in Commissioner McLaughlin's comments and can only hope his views aren't representative of the whole board.

I am concerned about the dioxin, mercury and other toxins being released into the air by HERC. I
also just learned last week that the University of Minnesota Fay Thompson Center for Environmental Management annually sends several hundred 20-gallon containers of decayed low-level radioactive waste to HERC. Here's my question for you related to this: have air emissions from HERC ever been
tested for radioactivity? If so, what were the results? If not, don't you think they should be?

This pollution is negatively affecting the health of Hennepin County and Minnesota residents. I also think we all need to do more to get the recyclable and organic materials out of the garbage/HERC waste stream. It is my understanding that if we expand HERC's burning capacity, we will be required by contract with Covanta to continue to burn an average 1200 tons of waste a day for decades into the future, regardless of improvements on recycling and composting rates.

On another Hennepin County topic:

Additionally, I wanted to make you aware of a failure by the county to gather public input in at least one of their ballpark tax expenditure projects. The Como community where I work in Southeast Minneapolis, was not consulted at all about decisions to invest thousands of dollars into Van Cleve Park and in doing so, fenced-off a quarter of the park from community use. If asked, the community NEVER would've supported this (I suppose that's why no one asked). Residents didn't find out about any of this until work
was begun at the park, and by then it was too late. I realize that this project isn't located in your district, but I hope you will be as concerned as I am about the lack of public involvement in the expenditure of public funds.

I still earnestly await your response on these important issues.

Sincerely,
Jennifer Gisslen Lee
Armatage, Minneapolis

Yesterday, she posted again saying Dorfman’s office finally got back to her after three days.  

When Michael Brodkorb made the surprise retirement announcement from the MN Republican Party Deputy Chair position he created an internal struggle, which will now play out publically. To his credit Republican Party Chairman Tony Sutton did not exercise the power of his position and appoint someone to the post. He is leaving this to a State Central Committee decision on December 3rd.    

Brodkorb’s departure opens up an opportunity for the Tea Party to attempt to wrestle away a highly visible position and Bill Jungebauer is interested in doing just that. The problem for Jungebauer is he has some questionable criminal charges from his past which he will now have to discuss publically. Jungebauer is not the sole candidate for this position he is competing with Kelly Fenton a more mainstream Republican, who is the President of Minnesota Excellence in Public Service Series and successfully ran Sen. Ted Lille’s (R-56, Woodbury) campaign in 2010. Fenton has been endorsed by Brodkorb for the position and if we were giving odds on this race we would suggest people put their money on her.

The victory by Rep. Jeff Hayden (DFL-61B, Minneapolis) will result in the need for another special election to fill his seat. Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) has yet to call the special election, but we expect it will be set for mid-December. Currently, DFLer’s who have filed for the seat are:  Susan Allen, Josh Bassais and Nelson Inz, while also filed but he has yet to declare a party affiliation Nathan Blumenshine. Allen has the endorsement of Women Winning and Bassais is picking up support from organized labor.

Farheen Hakeem (GP) last filed for the seat in 2008  and we will not be surprised if she runs for this seat again.

The term special election is applied to elections taking place during a nontraditional timeframes. The special in Senate district 46 comes after the passing of Sen. Linda Scheid (DFL-46, Brooklyn Park) one Senate district 61 follows the retirement of Sen. Linda Berglin (DFL-61, Minneapolis).

If anyone is looking for indicators from these special elections to determine trends for the 2002 legislative general elections, the only place to look is in Senate district 46. Over the last thirty years there have been two special elections both in the Brooklyn Park portion of the district. In each special the Republican candidate prevailed and later lost the seat to the DFL candidate in the next general election.

If this historical trend continues then Cory Jenson (R) should prevail over Chris Eaton (DFL), and Tom Reynolds (IP), but if hard work is the determining factor then Eaton is bound for victory.We know Republicans have used their traditional outlets and blanketed church parking lots with support pieces for Jenson, but this last push may be all that was done. The foundational work by the candidate and his campaign did not occur.

We have learned Republicans were poised to pump money into this race to support Jenson, but it appears Republicans are only willing to help candidates who first are willing to help themselves. We know contributions from the Freedom Club and other Republican support groups were ready to provide additional support to Jenson. Our reports show little effort from Jenson.

If our intelligence is correct, the DFL will retain this seat and stop its slide into oblivion. Upon conclusion of these special elections it is highly, likely the DFL hold 30 legislative seats.

As we have said since the announcement of Sen. Linda Berglin’s (DFL-61, Minneapolis) retirement Senate District 61 is a DFL seat. The elevation Rep. Jeff Hayden (DFL-61B, Minneapolis) to the Senate is nearly inevitable. The only question we have is what percentage Farheen Hakeem (GP) receives. Her high water mark for electoral results came in 2008 with 30.29% in the race for the 61B House seat against Hayden. Additionally, if the results for the other candidates in the race Matt Brillhart (IP), Bruce Lundeen (R) enter into significant double digits we will be surprised.

Here are the pre-general-election reports received by the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board for the candidates in Senate district 46:

Chris Eaton (DFL) received October 11, 2011.

Starting Balance: $5,436.27

Total Receipts: $33,557.95

Total Expenditures: $21,898.31

Cash-On-Hand: $17,095.91

Unpaid Bills: $0.00

Amendments

10/13/2011 Trial PAC contribution $400.00

10/17/2011 Lockridge Grindal Nauen PLLP State Pol Fund $500.00

Cory Jenson (R) received October 11, 2011.

Starting Balance: $0.00

Total Receipts: $17,801.92

Total Expenditures: $15,171.10

Cash-On-Hand: $7,624.32

Unpaid Bills: $4,993.50

Tom Reynolds (IP) received October 11, 2011.

Starting Balance: $0.00

Total Receipts: $2,486.08

Total Expenditures: $2,386.20

Cash-On-Hand: $149.88

Unpaid Bills: $0.00

Here are the pre-general-election reports received by the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board for the candidates in Senate district 61:

Farheen Hakeem (GP)

Starting Balance: $0.00

Total Receipts: $10,969.25

Total Expenditures: $3,427.27

Cash-On-Hand: $7,541.98

Unpaid Bills: $0.00

Jeff Hayden (DFL) received October 12, 2011

Starting Balance: $0.00

Total Receipts: $39,594.36

Total Expenditures: $25,198.07

Cash-On-Hand: $14,336.89

Unpaid Bills: $0.00

Matt Brillhart (IP) (Not Registered with Board)

Starting Balance: N/A

Total Receipts: N/A

Total Expenditures: N/A

Cash-On-Hand: N/A

Unpaid Bills: N/A

Bruce Lundeen (R) received October 11, 2011

Starting Balance: $0.00

Total Receipts: $2,690.00

Total Expenditures: $1,025.04

Cash-On-Hand: $1,664.96

Unpaid Bills: $0.00

As President Barack Obama (D) travels through Virginia and North Carolina calling for support of his jobs bill, he characterizes Republicans as being beholden to the extreme elements of their party. Their unwillingness to raise income tax rates on the most affluent or establish surcharges for incomes exceeding $1 million, places them squarely in the pockets of the privileged. Those with the means, have already lobbied Congress for tax breaks and special treatment in the tax code.

During his stops to build support for his plan Republicans criticize him for campaign style appearanceson public money, well sorry, incumbency does have its advantages. If Obama wants to generate support for his proposal, he needs to apply the KISS method (Keep It Simple Stupid) and adopt an easy phrase for people to remember. Republicans have mastered this technique with politically loaded phrases like: Death Tax and Granny Tax.   

We suggest making the umbrella phrase as simple as “Rebuild America.” Since many of the projects to contain it the proposal focus on rebuilding America's infrastructure; its roads, bridges and railroads systems it is a deferred maintenance proposal.

This theme can be translated into one applicable throughout the nation at every level of government. In Minnesota, it could be called “Rebuild Minnesota,” in Ramsey County it could be called “Rebuild Ramsey County”, or in St. Paul it could be called “Rebuild St. Paul.” It can't be used in just about any place the nation.

As our infrastructure continues to crumble we are prevented from moving forward. We need a modern day transportations system to move people and ship goods across our nation. In order for our society to advance we need a new electrical grid to transport energy from wherever generated to wherever needed. We face a turning point.

Rebuilding our nation is the most patriotic act we can ever be a part. So let’s a turning point in our history akin to the Depression Era. Public confidence is down and we must rebuild our collective self-esteem and what better way, than to see new things rise around us. So let’s Rebuild America, Rebuild Minnesota, Rebuild Ramsey County and Rebuild St. Paul, or rebuild wherever you live.

The October 16th special elections to be held Senate districts 46 and 61 will be two different affairs. The race in 46 is a suburban seat and the one in 61 is an urban south Minneapolis contest. The outcome in district 46 is up in the air while the outcome in 61 should be a foregone conclusion, in the favor of Rep. Jeff Hayden (DFL-61B, Minneapolis).

District 46, when it was District 47, has seen two special elections in the last 20 years. The first being the 1991 Special Election for 47A between Rich Krambeer (IR) and Darleen Luther (DFL). Krambeer won with 52.83% or 2043 votes to 46.67% or 1805 votes. Luther then bested him in the 1992 Presidential election year, which elected Bill Clinton (D), 61.91% or 9318 votes to 38.09% or 5733 votes and fostered a DFL House Majority of 86 for the DFL.

After the death of Luther in 2002, another special election ensued this time John Jordan (R) was pitted against Michael Nelson (DFL). Jordan succeeded with 55.69% or 1468 votes compared to 40.14% or 1058 votes. In the 2002 General Election, this time a non-presidential election year, Nelson (DFL) overcame 55.47% or 6452 votes Jordan (R) 44.39% or 5163 votes. Nelson’s election bucked the trend started in 1998, which fostered a Republican House Majority. When the legislature convened the Republicans retained the Majority with 81 seats.

With these two special elections as a historical backdrop from a half of the district the outcome of the special election between Senate District 46 Chris Eaton (DFL), Cory Jenson (R) and Tom Reynolds (IP) is up in the air. The inclusion of a third party candidate could be a factor, which does not benefit Eaton.

Again looking at historical elections results we can see effects of third party candidacies. In the 1992 Presidential Election H. Ross Perot carried 25.35% in 47A and 23.89% in 47B. In the 6th Congressional District race Dean Barkley (RP) received 13.83% in 47A and 8.33% 47B.

Traditionally, the third party effect in Minnesota elections is not overly significant, but such was not the case in 1998. The general election which brought Jesse Ventura/Mae Schunk (RP) into office shows support from 52.10% of the voters in District 47. Ventura had been the Mayor of Brooklyn Park, which accounts for half of the District 47.

The 2002 General Election returned to the normal of trend for independent candidates Tim Penny/Martha Robertson (IP) garnered 13.25% at the time the U.S. Senate Jim Moore (IP) only received 1.91%.

Turnout will be the major factor in this election. Republicans are interested in trying to tie Eaton to Governor Mark Dayton (DFL) especially regarding unionization of home health care workers. Eaton, a Registered Nurse in the mental health industry, has already stated her position on the issue in a public forum. She says she supports the rights of the workers to vote on the issue.

Her main opponent Jenson is playing the role of a traditional Republican. He has yet to answer a question with a response other than the standard rhetoric of lower taxes and less government regulations.

The other candidate Reynolds’ candidacy is mostly based on sour grapes. He originally filed for this office as a DFLer, but after Eaton won the DFL endorsement he switched over to the Independence Party. We understand his rationale being the DFL was not open to new voices, simply because he lost the endorsement.

When we look at the turnout in District 46 we know Republicans will be able to drive turnout from the area churches. The impact of the church vote was seen in 1992 and in 2002 and we expect will happen again in 2011.

If Jenson wins we will not be surprised and if he does it should not be seen as any mandate, but if Eaton is able to retain the seat for the DFL it will be a testament about the current Republican controlled legislative majority.

If the second place finisher results when combined with Reynolds results is greater than the first place finisher then the third party spoiler effect continues.

District 61

The race in Senate District 61 includes Matt Brillhart (IP), Farheen Hakeem (GP), Rep. Jeffery Hayden (DFL) and Bruce Lundeen (R). Hayden should garner more than 50% of the vote and the question is what the results of Hakeem will be. In our mind the only competitive opponent Hayden has is Hakeem and she is only competitive because she is a been on the ballot before.