We have the State Fair Surveys from the two legislative bodies. We reproduced the State Senates'
and here in a link to the Houses'   http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hinfo/leginfo/2010ballot.pd

We always feel these questions are an early primer to what legislative leadership is interested
in addressing in the forth coming legislative session. In the House Question 2 is about photo Id.
Not surprisingly, in the Senate Survey Question 6 addresses suggested methods for resolving budget
shortfalls in the House it is Question 8. House Question number 5 inquires whether the legislature
should resolve the Vikings Stadium issue in the Senate it is Question 8. And Senate Question 7 is
a pet issue for Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) concerning a commission
for redistricting.

Minnesota State Senate
2010 State Fair Poll
Respondents should be of voting age.
Please mark one answer per question with the exception of number 14.
Please read each question carefully.

Demographics

 Minneapolis/St. Paul __ Rural __ Suburban __
 
 Regional hub (Rochester, Duluth, etc.) __ Another state __
 18-24 __ 25-44 __ 45-64__ 65 and above __
 
 Party Affiliation:
 DFL Party __ Republican Party __ Independence Party __
 Independent or other___ No comment___

 1. Should commercial dog and cat breeders be licensed by the state of Minnesota
     and their facilities inspected by state inspectors?
  

  a. Yes.
  b. No.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 2. Should the Legislature require all wireless telecommunications service   
    providers to alert customers whose usage approaches or exceeds their contract limit?
  

  a. Yes.
  b. No.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 3. Minnesota law allows individuals and corporations to buy wind rights
    easements over large areas of agricultural land. However, the purchaser loses  
    those rights if a commercial wind operation is not in place within seven years
    of the purchase. The seven-year provision is scheduled to be repealed on June  
    1, 2012. Should the legislature extend that provision or allow it to lapse?

  a. Yes, extend the provision.
  b. No, allow it to lapse.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 4. Do you think debt collectors should be required to verify they have the correct
    debtor and the correct amount of the debt before filing a lawsuit against an 
    alleged debtor?
  
          a. Yes.
          b. No.
          c. Undecided/No opinion.

 5. Would you be willing to pay higher electric rates for electric energy that
     produced less pollution than coal-generated electricity? If so how much

  a. No, not any higher.
  b. Yes, ten percent higher.
  c. Yes, 25 percent higher.
  d. Yes, 50 percent or higher.
  e. Undecided/No opinion.

 6. When there is a budget shortfall, how should the Legislature resolve it?
  

  a. Increase state revenue.
  b. Reduce state spending.
  c. A combination of a and b.
  d. Undecided/No opinion.

 7. Currently, the Minnesota Legislature is constitutionally responsible for
    legislative and congressional redistricting and redrawing of legislative and
    congressional district boundaries. Would you support legislation creating a
    nonpartisan redistricting commission composed of retired judges to do this work?
  
          a. Yes.
          b. No.
          c. Undecided/No opinion.

 8. Is it important for the Minnesota Legislature to resolve the Vikings stadium 
     issue before their lease expires at the end of the 2011 season?

  a. Yes, because the team will likely be sold or relocated.
  b. No, the team will likely remain in Minnesota.
  c. This issue is not important to me.
  d. Undecided/No opinion.

 9. The Legislature recently considered changing teacher licensure requirements to allow an 
      alternative method for an individual to become a teacher. This would allow teachers from 
      programs such as “Teach for America” or mid-career professionals to teach in our classrooms 
      provided they pass the teacher licensure exam. Would you support an alternative method for
      licensing skilled professionals to teach Minnesota’s students or do you support the traditional
      method for training and licensing teachers in Minnesota?

  a. Yes, I’d support an alternative method.
  b. No, I oppose an alternative method.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 10. The Legislature has considered proposals to increase funding for early childhood education. 
       Some proposals provide funding directly to established programs. Other
       proposals provide funding directly to parents who select a program from a qualified list.
       Which approach would you favor?
 

  a. Fund established programs.
  b. Send funding to parents who select a qualified provider.
  c. I don’t support increased funding for early childhood.
  d. Undecided/No opinion.

 11. Would you support an increase in the state income tax if the money generated was used to 
       reduce your local property taxes?

  a. Yes.
  b. No.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 12. Should a company be allowed to consider an applicant’s credit history as abasis for hiring 
       employees to work in nonfinancial positions?

  a. Yes.
  b. No.
  c. Undecided/No opinion.

 13. Under current law, a prisoner in a state or local correctional facility must serve a minimum 
       of 66.7% of their sentence before being eligible for supervised release. As part of a 
       budget-balancing strategy intended to lessen cuts in other areas, would you support reducing 
       this minimum period to 60% of a prisoner’s sentence?

  a. Yes.
  b. Yes, but not for violent offenders.
  c. No.
  d. Undecided/No opinion.

 14. If the 2011 Legislature decides to cut funding to resolve a general fund budget
      shortfall, currently projected to be 15% of the budget, which areas should be cut? 
      The percentages of the general fund budget are listed in parentheses.
  
         Select up to three budget areas:

  a. E-12 Education. (37.1%)
  b. Higher Education. (9.2%)
  c. Health and Human Services. (29.6%)
  d. Property Tax Aids and Credits. (9.7%)
  e. Corrections/Public Safety. (5.9%)
  f. State Government. (2.1%)
  g. Transportation. (0.5%)
  h. Environment/Pollution Control. (1.1%)
  i. Economic Development. (0.9%)

  OR select one of the following:

  j. I would only support equal cuts across the board.
  k. I oppose any further cuts in state spending.
  l. Undecided/No opinion.

Public Subsidy Numbers Announced

Today, the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board announced the numbers of public subsidy for the candidate running for state office. In order to qualify for the subsidy candidates are required to meet the following obligations:

To qualify for a public subsidy payment a candidate must:

• be opposed at either the primary or general election

• appear on the general election ballot,

• sign and timely file a public subsidy agreement with the Board to abide by

  applicable campaign expenditure limits,

• and sign and timely file an affidavit of contributions stating that the candidate

  accumulated a specified amount in contributions from individuals eligible to vote

  in Minnesota.

Because former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL) is self-financing he will receive $0, but it also means his opponents receive the maximum amounts. To view the amounts for all candidates click here: http://www.cfboard.state.mn.us/publicsubsidy/2010_Press_Release_Public_Subsidy_Payments.pdf

We found the announcement of the decision by Republican Candidate Tom Emmer's (R-19B, Delano) campaign to skip the League of Greater MN Cities debate not all that surprising. In 2002, then candidate Tim Pawlenty (R) attended their debate and after being elected a CD-Rom of his comments to the group made the rounds at the Capitol noting his commitment to LGA during the debate and attempting to expose his hypocrisy after.

The only candidate in the race with strong Greater Minnesota credentials is former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) and as evidenced from the result in the DFL Primary, where Dayton carried nearly all of the northern counties, except Clay and a majority of 70 of the 87 counties over his opponents. The political impact of Greater Minnesota has lessened significantly as will be noted in the next reapportionment and redistricting, but their loyalty to politicians who understand the trials and tribulations of life outside of the seven county metropolitan area is in evidence.

If as Emmer claims he never runs from a fight, then opting out of this venue is not consistent with this statement. It remains our assessment of statewide electoral results the Democratic base is 43% and the Republican base is 37% with 20% independents. Emmer can not afford to be reliant on just the suburban vote to ensure his voictory in November.  

For some the 2010 DFL Gubernatorial Primary created déjà vu providing a back to the future feel of 1982. The DFL gubernatorial fight in 1982 consisted of a contest between former Lt. Governor Rudy Perpich (DFL) and DFL endorsee Attorney General Warren Spannaus, during which a similar northern Minnesota effect occurred to what we saw on August 10th.

There definite differences in the Perpich and Spannaus race compared to that of Dayton, Kelliher and Entenza, mainly because in 1982 the fight was mostly a head-to-head contest. The Iron Range results provided an overwhelming amount for Perpich and won the day.

1982                             Perpich                        Spannaus                   

                     Area Total Vote    Area%  State%   Vote    Area% State%

Anoka               22353   11548   51.66%  2.14%   10294   46.05% 1.91%

Hennepin         113597   42394   37.32%  7.87%   68836   60.60% 12.78%

Ramsey            65534   20360   31.07%  3.78%   44049   67.22% 8.18%

Dakota             19086     8377   43.89%  1.56%   10275   53.84% 1.91%

Washington       12179    5260   43.19%  0.98%     6652   54.62% 1.24%

Scott                 5043     2857   56.65%  0.53%     2045   40.55% 0.38%

Carver                3586     1918   53.49%  0.36%     1546   43.11% 0.29%

Isanti                 3767     2303   61.14%  0.43%     1365   36.24% 0.25%

Itasca              11872    10059   84.73%  1.87%     1530   12.89% 0.28%

Chisago             4646     2347   50.52%  0.44%     2139    46.04% 0.40%

Olmsted             5644     3522   62.40%  0.65%    1956    34.66% 0.36%

Sherburne          4031     2352   58.35%   0.44%   1517    37.63% 0.28%

St Louis           55124   45058   81.74%   8.37%    9091   16.49% 1.69%

Carlton               6757    4917   72.77%   0.91%    1641    24.29% 0.30%

Cook                   888      613    69.03%  0.11%      249    28.04% 0.05%

Lake                  4125    3237    78.47%  0.60%      783    18.98% 0.15%

Total               275920                                       248218  

The final outcome of the DFL Gubernatorial Primary paints an interesting picture of current Democratic voting patterns. Throughout Tuesday night, the election returns showed Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) leading by a significant margin mainly due to her accumulation of a 16,000 vote margin in Hennepin County, but the Iron Range numbers had yet to be reported. In DFL politics in both primary and general races the focus is on the 4th, 5th and 8th Congressional Districts. Thse districts account for better than have of the state’s voting population. Since the primary election results are not as easily obtained in this fashion we tend look to the various counties to disaggregate the numbers. 

The strategy developed by  Kelliher Campaign Manager Jamie Tincher focused on contact with 180,000 DFL primary voters—resulting in a vote total of 175,807 votes or 95.67% of the goal—if this were the only measurement the campaign is a ringing success, but as we know the final tally did not go Kelliher’s way. Dayton bested Kelliher by 6,873 votes or 1.55% with 182,680 votes for an overall 41.32% and Entenza came in a distant third 80,498 for 18.21%. 

Kelliher is the only candidate to outperform her polling figures in the election. Now we feel the polls leading up to the election were flawed significantly because the sample size did not reflect a sample of strictly potential DFL voters, but was drawn from a general election sample. The ability to extrapolate from a large group down to a smaller one is a poor polling method. Entenza performed on par with our expectation of 17% as did Dayton as we anticipated show in the low 40’s, but Kelliher exceeded expectations far beyond the margin of error. 

Ironically, the longer Kelliher’s political commercials ran the higher her numbers grew and had she not supported a change in the date of the DFL Primary from September to August she may have prevailed. If her campaign had another week the potential for success also grew.   

Many saw the selection of former state Finance Commissioner John Gunyou as a general election strategy rather than a primary strategy, but Kelliher seems to have picked up votes in the western Hennepin County communities. Basically, the Kelliher Campaign seemed to be mounting an urban core plus suburbs strategy attempting to offset the support of former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) strength on the Iron Range and with senior voters. 

The county level is a good indicator of how an election plays out and an even deeper cross-section is by viewing the outcome in the legislative districts. In the battle for counties, Kelliher lost out to Dayton significantly. Dayton carried 70 counties, Kelliher 10 and Entenza two. Additionally, Dayton carried 19 counties by better than 50%, these counties are: Aitkin, Carlton, Grant, Isanti, Kanabec, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Mower, Norman, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake, Roseau, St. Louis, Swift, and Traverse. Many may have small voting populations, but the margins do accumulate votes.  

Kelliher prevailed in the metropolitan counties of: Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey and Washington with the greatest raw vote advantage in Hennepin. She only beat Dayton in ten non-metropolitan counties: Blue Earth, Clay, Houston, Nicollet, Olmsted, Pipestone, Redwood, Rice, Rock and Winona, but no margin exceeded 50% and with the exception of Clay none of these places extended into northern Minnesota. 

                                                                     Dayton                               Kelliher 
                     State Total  Area Total    Vote          Area%     State%      Vote       Area%
Anoka                                   23234        10796       46.47%      2.44%       8126      34.97%
Hennepin                            112495        39544       35.15%      8.94%     55799     49.60%
Ramsey                                58535         19814      33.85%       4.48%     25341      43.29%
Dakota                                  26659         10554      39.59%      2.39%     10876      40.80%
Washington                          18436           6962      37.76%       1.57%        7669      41.60%
Scott                                       5942            2613       43.98%      0.59%       2144      36.08%
Carver                                    4392            1719        39.14%      0.39%       1794      40.85%
Isanti                                      2768            1430        51.66%      0.32%        827       29.88%
Itasca                                     7034            3316        47.14%      0.75%       2187       31.09%
Chisago                                  3933             1787        45.44%      0.40%     1390       35.34%
Olmsted                                8456             3298        39.00%      0.75%     3462       40.94%
Sherburne                            4091             1870        45.71%       0.42%     1400       34.22%
St Louis                               27166          15234         56.08%     3.45%       7921       29.16%
Carlton                                  4191             2260         53.93%     0.51%      1257       29.99%
Cook                                     1204                506         42.03%     0.11%        475        39.45%
Lake                                     2320              1202         51.81%      0.27%       764        32.93%
Total                  442087                        182,680                                     175,807 

                                             Entenza  
                            Area Total   Vote    Area%   State%
Anoka                     23234     4104    17.66%    0.93%
Hennepin             112495    16624    14.78%    3.76%
Ramsey                 58535    12988    22.19%    2.94%
Dakota                   26659      5079    19.05%    1.15%
Washington           18436       3719    20.17%   0.84%
Scott                         5942       1143    19.24%   0.26%
Carver                      4392        850    19.35%   0.19%
Isanti                        2768        500    18.06%   0.11%
Itasca                       7034       1436    20.42%  0.32%
Chisago                    3933         730     18.56%  0.17%
Olmsted                   8456      1641      19.41%  0.37%
Sherburne               4091        791      19.34%   0.18%
St Louis                  27166     3757      13.83%    0.85%
Carlton                      4191      627       14.96%    0.14%
Cook                          1204      201      16.69%     0.05%
Lake                          2320      331      14.27%     0.07%
Total                                   80,498

Looking at the race in key legislative districts, especially those having a legislative primary contest as well the following picture emerges.

                                               Dayton                    Kelliher
Leg District    Area Total   Area Vote  Area%  Overall%  Area Vote     Area%  Overall%
       04A               3956             1704     43.07%    0.39%        1416          35.79%    0.32%
       05A               6089             3888     63.85%    0.88%        1501         24.65%    0.34%
       05B               5237             3009     57.46%     0.68%        1370         26.16%    0.31%
       07A               4906             2319     47.27%     0.52%         1797         36.63%    0.41%
       07B               3738             2059      55.08%    0.47%        1065         28.49%    0.24%
       50A              3982             1934       48.57%    0.44%        1396          35.06%   0.32%
       50B              4202             1545       36.77%    0.35%         1951          46.43%   0.44%
       58A              2942             1140       38.75%    0.26%         1093          37.15%   0.25%
       58B              2893               954       32.98%    0.22%         1128           38.99%  0.26%
       60A             5720             1299        22.71%    0.29%         3812           66.64%  0.86%
       60B              7187             1752        24.38%    0.40%         4757           66.19%  1.08%
       62A             6605             1971        29.84%    0.45%         3936           59.59%  0.89%
       62B             6029             1972        32.71%     0.45%         3316          55.00%  0.75%
       64A            6332             1503         23.74%    0.34%         3152           49.78%  0.71%
       64B             6761             1948         28.81%    0.44%         3467          51.28%   0.78%
       65A            2783               850         30.54%    0.19%          905            32.52%  0.20%
       67A            3480             1250         35.92%    0.28%        1041           29.91%   0.24%
       67B            3403             1262          37.08%    0.29%        1092          32.09%   0.25% 
  

                                    Entenza                                                         

Leg District  Area Total   Area Vote     Area%  Overall%                               

      04A             3956               786         19.87%      0.18%                                 

      05A             6089               656         10.77%      0.15%                                 

      05B              5237               800         15.28%     0.18%                                 

      07A             4906                758         15.45%      0.17%                                 

      07B              3738                563         15.06%     0.13%                                 

     50A              3982                613          15.39%     0.14%                        

     50B              4202                675          16.06%     0.15%                        

     58A              2942                689          23.42%     0.16%                        

     58B              2893                 787          27.20%     0.18%                        

     60A              5720                586          10.24%     0.13%                        

     60B               7187                660            9.18%     0.15%                        

     62A              6605                681          10.31%     0.15%                           

     62B              6029                719           11.93%     0.16%                        

     64A              6332              1657           26.17%     0.37%                        

     64B               6761              1301           19.24%    0.29%                        

     65A               2783               996            35.79%    0.23%                        

     67A               3480              1151           33.07%    0.26%                        

     67B               3403                995          29.24%     0.23%

Additionally, to a Kelliher supporter Entenza played the role of spoiler and he did succeed in spending the highest amount per vote in the history of a statewide election here and nationwide. If he spent all of the money he invested it translates into $64.76/vote, which exceeds by $7.49 the previous record in California set by Al Checchi of $57.37. Although as it was pointed out to us by Entenza Campaign Manager Dave Colling, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) makes these numbers look like chump change. In his last reelection Bloomberg spent $1059.25 per voter.

Dayton maintained frontrunner status throughout and because he had held statewide office on two occasions he in effect can be seen as the incumbent. If Entenza had remained out of the mix Kelliher could have prevailed.

So if we look at the outcome of these specific counties, combining all non-Dayton votes the race may have look like this:

Anoka             53.53%

Hennepin       64.85%

Ramsey          66.15%

Dakota            60.41%

Washington   62.24%

Scott               56.02%

Carver            60.86%

Isanti              48.34%

Itasca             52.86%

Chisago           54.56%

Olmsted         61.00%

Sherburne     54.29%

St Louis          43.92%

Carlton           46.07%

Cook               57.97%

Lake               48.19%

The challenger could have prevailed by taking the majority vote in Anoka, Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Washington, Scott, Carver, Itasca, Chisago, Olmsted and Cook Counties.

On Monday, a reader asked us if we had put any thought into the bevy of commercials paying in this market intent on making Mormons seem just like anyone else and if it is a contrivance by supporters of former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). With the primary contest looming we put it on the back burner, but afterwards find it interesting that others find the question worth delving into.

The Twin Cities is on of nine markets the commercials are running in along with Rochester, NY, Tucson AZ, St. Louis MO, Jacksonville, FL, Oklahoma City, OK, Colorado Springs, CO and Baton Rouge, LA.

We came across two interesting articles in Salon http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/08/09/mormon_ad_campaign/index.html and the Minnesota Independent http://minnesotaindependent.com/63455/mormons-take-to-the-airwaves-in-minneapolis-eight-other-cities we think are worth reading.

This may be an attempt to sway Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) to accept Mormons as upstanding, average people and increase his comfort level to be Romney’s running mate.

This just in, the Minnesota Court of Appeals has rendered a strong opinion opposing the opening of rejected absentee ballots in the Al Franken v. Norm Coleman 2008 U.S. Senate race. The lower court had ruled incorrectly the unopened ballots are considered public data. 

http://www.mncourts.gov/opinions/coa/current/opa100395-0810.pdf

We had the pleasure of talking to Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) this morning about today's primary activity. We learned as of 4:50 pm yesterday 28,992 absentee ballots have been processed. Up until yesterday, the rate of acceptance was 500-1000 and included walk-ins. The ability to walk-in and cast an absentee ballot ended yesterday.

We will update the figure latter in the day as more information becomes available. He projects a turnout of 12% statewide for all three major parties, but acknowledges the bulk will be in the DFL primary. If the Independence primary exceeds 20,000 many people, including us, will be surprised.

We just received a call telling us the next KSTP/Survey USA poll has former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) at 43%, House Speaker Maragret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) at 27% and for House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) at 22%. We expect these numbers will be part of forthcoming news casts on Channel 5.

This is a significant boost for the Dayton Campaign if the numbers hold during the election.

Minnesota is set to be the site of the highest per capita expenditure by vote in a non-Presidential campaign in the history of the nation. Overall spending the DFL Primary for governor is significant. The two millionaire candidates former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) are on a record spending spree. Based on current reports, our calculations show the projected cost per vote by Entenza will likely eclipse the amount spent by former Northwest Airlines head Al Checchi (D) in the California Gubernatorial Primary in 1998.

This year the California Primary continues to set record numbers. Gubernatorial Candidate Meg Whitman (R) spent $80,821,287.02 leading up to the June 8^th primary resulting in a cost of $54.15/vote, but her expenditure per vote remains below that of Cheechi. Cheechi spent $38,928,244 in his bid to be the Golden State’s Democratic Candidate, losing handily to Lt. Governor Gray Davis (D). As we learned from the California Secretary of State’s website, the money spent by Checchi, in this one race, “exceeded $34.1 million in combined total expenditures for all 100 primary election races for the California State Legislature – 20 State Senate races plus 80 State Assembly races – involving 313 major party candidates.” The primary results show Cheechi with only 20.8% of the vote or an expenditure of $57.37/vote. This is not a respectable ROI (Return on Investment), especially since he touted himself as a “New Democrat,” meaning fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

Based on current projections, Entenza is on a record pace set to approach 1.5 times what Checchi spent in his primary contest per vote. There are two key factors which will determine the final outcome, turnout and election result. As of May 01, 2010 the Minnesota Secretary of State’s Office accounts for 3,113,664 registered voters. If as many speculate the turnout for an August Primary is far below average then an expectation of 10% is likely. Based on the most recent poll published Entenza is polling at 17% with less than 311,366 voters expected to vote next Tuesday, his projected expenditures—based on current information—translates into $73.52/vote.

We feel comfortable in predicting ultimately, an even higher figure because these numbers will change in both parts of this formula. It is assured Entenza will spend more than has been reported since the last filing he has contributed an additional $1,070,000 to his campaign.

If the polling numbers square with the primary outcome or Entenza’s percentage of the vote is lower his cost/vote will increase. Correspondingly, should his percentage of the vote increase beyond projections the cost/vote will drop. We expect Entenza’s result will not surpass 20%.  The finally figures will remain unclear until ten day before the general election, when the next report is due.

Using the same formula Dayton is spending $21.29/vote based on the $2,651,086.99 accounted for in his last campaign finance report and a projected 40% base of support at the polls. Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) is projected to spent $7.35/vote with $686,687.01 expenditures reported in the last report and a 30% result represented in the latest poll.

When we scrutinized the campaign finance reports of the two millionaire candidates we saw an interesting difference in the way they reported their own contributions. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) accounted for his $2,700,000 as a loan to his campaign while former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) incorporated his contribution as part of the individual contributions to his campaign.

Now we are unclear when Dayton expects to be reimbursed by his campaign and may be able to write off the interest payments, but as he has stated in the past he is a better contributor than he is a fundraiser. Dayton has raised a small amount of money outside of his personal wealth $156,160.24 and if he should prevail the amount is expected to increase. This accounts for only 5.26% of his total campaign receipts. If we extract the amount Entenza contributed to his campaign the individual contribution amount to $360,573.94 or 7.17% of total receipts. Many of the individual Dayton and Entenza contributions come from outside Minnesota.

Often times a campaign will seek a number of small donations to offset large contributions and then tout the number of financial supporters and an average donor amount. With such large contributions made by the principals in this case those numbers are irrelevant.

While House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) lacks a personal fortune and has based her campaign on traditional fundraiser efforts. Individual contributions account for $778,693.43 of the 992,066.42 raised or 78.49%.

Getting your people to vote by absentee ballot or to show-up to the polls is an essential element to a primary campaign. As we have said previously, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) has a larger pool to draw from with over 300,000 membership labor unions supporting her compared to around 135,000 for former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D).

We have already discussed the extensive effort underway in these labor unions, which are treating the primary election with as much importance as a general election. If the primary is only seen as a test run it will be a pre-cursor to the mobilization effort come November.

We have seen endorsements for Kelliher by the Star Tribune, the ECM newspapers and the Minnesota Daily. The problem is there will be few students on campus on August 10th. Former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) received the endorsement of Insight News a mostly African-American newspaper largely due to his choice of former KMSP News Anchor Robyne Robinson as his running mate.

Now it is clear endorsements are nice, the free media a benefit, but it doesn’t translate into votes. The commercial air war is well underway and Entenza has taken a shot at Kelliher coming into the last weekend of the campaign. A press release from Kelliher Campaign Manager Jamie Tincher said, “We are disappointed that in this late hour before the DFL primary, Matt Entenza is running misleading, negative TV ads.”

In a move to fend off attacks on the organization being seen a strictly an operational arm of the Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) campaign, MN Forward sent out a press release showing support for three DFL and three Republican legislative candidates.

We find this interesting since in our first conversation with Brian McClung, we asked if the group would be supporting candidates in other races and he said, “No, just in the governor’s race.”

Looks like the group is nimble enough to try and control their own pr.

Here is the release.

 MN Forward announces support for bipartisan group of state legislative candidates  

Coalition of job providers backing 3 DFLers, 3 Republicans who support key issues

Minneapolis, MN August 5, 2010 — MN Forward today announced the first group of state legislative candidates the organization is supporting in the 2010 elections.  Direct mail pieces backing the three DFLers and three Republicans will arrive at homes in six legislative districts around Minnesota over the next few days.

SENATE CANDIDATES

• Senator Terri Bonoff (DFL-Minnetonka) – Senator Bonoff was chief author of Senate File 2757, a key piece of education reform that would have allowed Minnesota to offer alternative  programs like Teach For America and allow mid-career professionals a pathway into the teaching profession for school districts and students struggling to close the achievement gap.

• Rep. Doug Magnus (R-Slayton) – Rep. Magnus is seeking the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jim Vickerman.  Rep. Magnus has served as the ranking member on the House Agriculture, Rural Economies and Veterans Affairs Finance Division and has been a strong voice for spending reform.

• Senator Jim Metzen (DFL-South St. Paul) – As chair of the Senate Business, Industry and Jobs Committee, Senator Metzen regularly seeks the input of the business community on issues that would impact job providers.  Senator Metzen also serves as President of the Minnesota Senate.

HOUSE CANDIDATES

• Rep. Gene Pelowski (DFL-Winona) – Rep. Pelowski broke ranks with his party and voted against a $1 billion tax increase in 2009 and against a veto override attempt on the same bill.  That year he had the highest ranking on the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce scorecard of any DFL House member.

• Rep. Kurt Zellers (R-Maple Grove) – Rep. Zellers has been a consistent supporter of job providers.  He received a 100 on the Minnesota Chamber scorecard in 2010 and a 92 in 2009.  He has also been an outspoken supporter of key education reforms like alternative licensure.

• Doug Wardlow (R-Eagan) – Doug Wardlow is an attorney with the Minneapolis firm Parker Rosen.  He was valedictorian of his Eagan High School class and received a B.A. and J.D. from Georgetown University.  His campaign has focused on improving Minnesota’s job climate.

“From day one, MN Forward has made it clear we would support both Republicans and Democrats who support reforms that strengthen our workforce and improve our ability to create jobs and economic opportunity,” said Brian McClung, director of MN Forward.  “This group of candidates has varied backgrounds and positions on many issues, but they all have been focused on making Minnesota a better place to grow jobs.”

To view the direct mail pieces being sent to voters in support of these candidates, go online to http://www.MNForward.com/candidates.

MN Forward is a new organization established to ensure that private-sector job creation and economic growth are at the top of the agenda during the 2010 campaign. The organization is working with a broad coalition of Minnesota job creators to elect candidates from both parties who support policies that enhance job growth in Minnesota.

MN Forward is supported by a growing list of Minnesota-based job providers and business trade associations including the Minnesota Trucking Association, the Insurance Federation of Minnesota, the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce, and the Minnesota Business Partnership.

In 2000, 433,399 people voted in the DFL Primary for U.S. Senate with Mark Dayton (D) carrying 41.29% over Attorney Michael Ciresi (DFL) 22.35, DFL Endorsed Candidate Jerry Janezich with 20.78 and Rebecca Yanisch with 14.60%. Dayton’s win is largely attributed to his appeal to the senior vote. He financed trips to Canada early in 2000 for seniors to purchase prescription drugs and his campaign commercials set the tone of the primary election by running during the summer before his opponents chose to engage.

The electorate in 2010 is much different than it was in 2000. The World War II generation is not as prevalent. The significant decline in this cohort is a reality and the current crop of seniors is not as easily defined especially with the incorporation of the first wave of the baby boom.

 A 60 year old voter in 2000 was not a senior citizen but in 2010 their status has changed. They are concerned about quality of life issues, but with their retirement savings in decline there are a plethora of issues they must now contend with.

We are not saying Dayton has lost his edge with this population, but rather the diversity of their concerns may make them less wedded to his candidacy. This population is reflects a higher percentage of women who may have come of age during the women’s rights movement and they may see House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) as an embodiment of their won political power. Unlike in the contest between Barack Obama (D) and Hillary Clinton (D), where younger woman supported Obama and older women supported Clinton there is no other candidate for Kelliher to compete with on gender.

The Star Tribune article on the race between embattled Sen. Satveer Chaudhary (DFL-50, Fridley) and former Rep. Barb Goodwin (DFL) called attention to the fact one of Chaudhary’s senate colleagues, from the adjoining district, Sen. Don Betzold (DFL-51, Fridley) is supporting Goodwin. We thought this logical given Betzold’s own history with the Senate Caucus.

In 1992, Betzold received the DFL endorsement and was elected after winning a primary over incumbent Sen. Don Frank (DFL). During the campaign the DFL Senate Caucus supported Frank over the endorsed candidate and even called Betzold’s house in an effort to encourage him to vote for his opponent. The tension between the party endorsement and the legislative caucus crops up infrequently, but most often in elections after redistricting.

The article also highlights the fact Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) door knocked the district for Chaudhary, which is not a surprise since represents the caucus. 

The Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board is keeping track on its website of all of the contributions received by the various campaigns and required to be reported within 24 hours by state law. The two largest are the contributions made by former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) of $450,000 on July 22^nd and $630,000 on July 30^th.

To see the entire list of contributions by candidate name click here. Note this includes all current races. http://www.cfbreport.state.mn.us/rptViewer/viewRptsNotices.php 

Now that we have seen the first use of corporate money in our politics we now know the face of the beast and it doesn’t look all that different than the face of a candidate’s campaign and for some that is the problem. People are decrying the slick ad by the recently formed Political Action Committee Minnesota Forward, headed by Governor Tim Pawlenty’s former Communications Director Brian McClung.

The ad promotes the values of Republican endorsed candidate Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) of which the funders from the business community espouse; lower taxes, less regulation and smaller government. These virtues are what Emmer’s Campaign embodies and are in the minds of fellow travelers essential elements to prosperous Minnesota. In effect, the ad makes Emmer look better than he is.

It is clear, what the first message is and we will need to wait to see what futures messages will be. Is Minnesota Forward going to take on Emmer’s opponents and undermine their messages while Emmer’s own campaign runs only positive messages, it is likely. Otherwise, it will be the state Republican Party that does the dirty work. Actually, it doesn’t really matter since we will likely see heaps of cash thrown into this election.

The main reason for large expenditures this election is because the governor’s seat is open and if the results fall the Republicans way it will mean a continuation of a pro-business executive branch into the next four years. Also, the change in the law by the U.S. Supreme Court in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission will remain in place unless Congress acts to change it, but will continue past November 2^nd.

We listen to the hand ringing and complaining recognizing there has been a need for systematic reform since the election laws changes advanced by Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) in 1994. Since those changes we have in effect seen one party rule by Republicans in the Executive Branch, the exception being Governor Jesse Ventura (IP) 1999-2002.

As people as crying out for protections from the “evil” corporations they should look to the root of the problem and that is not the issue of free speech bought and paid for, but rather who is welding the microphone. Our nation has maintained the status of “person” for corporations equal to that of our living and breathing citizenry. Yes, we agree corporations do need some protections and can have some advantages, but not on an equal footing with the average citizen. Already due to financial opportunity corporations have an unequal advantage when facing a person. The corporation can deploy a bevy of lawyers to help silence, impede or stop many actions against itself through the use of the court system.

Yes, we understand the argument it about free speech, but what about fairness? The voice of a CEO or CFO already has greater weight than does an average Joe or Jane. The ability to finance one’s own opinion has been the advantage left to those of higher means and in many cases those people in turn get elected.

If the opponents want to stop corporate speech they need to attack the underlying advantage and that is the status of the entity. Corporations should be afforded only limited rights and those should be defined as corporate rights and not individual rights.

The reason the Consumer Protection Agency and Attorney General Offices have developed Consumer Protection arms is because of the need to protect the citizenry from those who over reach or operate outside of the legal boundaries. History shows the needs of protecting consumers from false claims, bait and switch tactics and outright lies in the area of commerce, why should politics be any different.

People dislike corporate involvement telling them what it thinks because they perceive an unfair advantage, well it seems the corporations have money to direct toward this type of effort because the people running the operation have the means to do so. So an active campaign boycotting products of those companies and a clearing 401K of stocks from politically motivated corporations is the best means to send a clearer message.

The Democratic National Committee Site Selection Committee is in town accessing Minneapolis’ capabilities to host the 2012 Democratic National Convention. It is our understanding the Mill City is in head-to-head competition with Cleveland, OH and St. Louis, MO for hosting the event.

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) may be the ace-in-the-hole on this one. As an organizer of the “Draft Obama Campaign” he was in the room when things first started. Yes, he has been mentioned on a number of occasions as a potential pick for a position in Washington, D.C., but nothing has come his way. It is clear since he is still here in Minnesota, he may not have cashed in his chit nor even had his name drawn. There will be three factors in play that with determine the outcome of the selection and they are: Politics, Money and Logistics.

Politically, Minnesota was a more advantageous choice for Republicans in 2008. As a Democratic stronghold the home of Hubert Humphrey II, Walter Mondale and Paul Wellstone our state provided a good contrast to a Republican message. With Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) as a successful candidate in a blue state people could make the specious claim of a changing trend. In 2012 it would seem more favorable for a swing state like Ohio or Missouri to get the nod. The question is what will be the trump card for a political event? We actually think you can figure this one out on your own.

Financially, Minneapolis is a known quantity. Hennepin County is the principle funder of elections in Minnesota and a financial commodity nationwide. The RNC convention was a financial success and the corporate community stepped up to help finance the undertaking. This will also bode well in a bid for the DNC.

Logistically, Minneapolis has many advantages over Cleveland; it is considered a very attractive venue. One, there are a number of downtown hotels, which means nearly half of the delegates will be staying within a mile of the site, which is a serious advantage. Secondly, there are many bar and restaurants in the area, which can support this throng of people. Since Minneapolis is a convention town events of this size are not daunting.

The convention site being promoted is the Hubert Humphrey II Metrodome. With the Twins no longer tenants there the facility is fully available during the summer of 2012. Minnesota was on the Democratic shortlist in 2008, but the Republican National Committee picked St. Paul as their site when then DNC Chairman Howard Dean decided to wait until after the results of the 2006 election were in.

The list of amenities from Target Field, Target Center, the Guthrie, the Walker Art Center and the Minneapolis theater district provide great opportunities for hosting other events, but again in the political calculus may out bid logic, but the real question is can money and logic trump politics. We expect we will have to wait until November to learn this answer.

The town hall meeting endorsed candidate Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) held last Wednesday at Old Mexico in Roseville disintegrated after someone left the crowd and poured a bag of pennies onto the table in front of the Republican candidate. After making his contribution to the Emmer campaign and then fleeing like a thief in the night, Nick Espinosa, who later lied claiming to be Robert Erickson, succeeded stealing the focal point of the debate and interjecting immigration into the discussion away from the clarity of a minimum wage discussion. By his act, Espinosa, single-handedly hijacked a hotly charge issue from remaining center stage.

The actions by Espinosa expose the vulnerabilities in the Democratic coalition. Those who either cannot leave well enough alone or are so myopic when caught up in the clap trap of their own vested interests are merely seeking attention for themselves in a very immature manner. Or maybe a better way to state the point in the left has no idea what the far-left is doing.

Democrats are blessed by the selection by Republicans of Emmer; he is the gift they hope keeps on giving. His comments on issues like minimum wage are right in line with core Republican rhetoric. He embodies the arch-conservative agenda and will give voice to it. This will reduce the need to define him as a candidate and the best strategy will be to create opportunities for Emmer to be himself.

The staged display by Espinosa could have been a legitimate attempt to broaden the debate, but it appears to be nothing more than grandstanding. Espinosa is student of the Javier Morillo Alicea school of politics, where it all about getting yourself to be a spokesperson and your organization is forced to suffer in silence. This is what Coup d’e’tat are all about.

We find it interesting Espinosa has not commented much publicly and has claimed death threats against him afterward. This all seems a little too contrived and disingenuous the reason due to the following self-promotional release sent out after the event:

Friday, July 16,  2010

Contact: Nick Espinosa, 612-432-8888, Minnesota Immigrant Rights Action committee member
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
http://mirac1.wordpress.com/
http://bamcampaign.wordpress.com/


Penny Prankster Not Satisfied With Emmer’s Lack of Clarity on Issues.


(Minneapolis) July 16 --After having a $20 tip in pennies dropped at his table during his minimum wage town hall in Roseville, Emmer’s campaign continues to struggle with clarifying their position on the server wages and the tip credit, and escaping the controversy generated by their comments.

The infamous “penny pour” thrust the issue unto the national stage, where Emmer is being hammered by national blogs and television shows including:

MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews

Talking Points Memo

Think Progress

The Wonkette

Activist Nick Espinosa and The Minnesota Immigrant Rights Action committee (MIRAc) are keeping the pressure on Emmer to give some clear answers to Minnesotans, both servers, and immigrant rights advocates as this hard hitting letter was released today:
Emmer: Who’s really running away here?

Another interesting point to note is the organization Minnesota Immigration Rights Action committee webpage has only four people listed on its board.

Illegality is a key word for Republicans in the Minnesota 2010 election. The release of information by the Minnesota Majority of potentially, thousands of felons voting in the 2008 election, when the outcome of the U.S. Senate race between Al Franken (D) and U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R) came down to a court decision and resulted in a mere 312 votes fills the feedbags of the conspiracy theorists.

The additional specter of illegal voting by felons only adds to the attacks on the integrity of the electoral process and couples well with ongoing unsubstantiated claim of widespread voting by illegal immigrants. These interwoven attacks succeed in undermining the credibility of elections and results in a number of benefits at the ballot box for Republicans.

Clearly, the first benefit helps to motivate the Republican base and incense them to a point where the possibilities of an election theft are more important than reality. Red meat in the water whips the political piranha’s into feeding frenzy.

Secondly, the claims of voting by illegal aliens and voting by felons disproportionately impact minority communities in urban areas and any suppression of voter turnout in the urban core will help Republican statewide. The main areas these issues can become potential factors are in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, homes of the state’s two largest cities.

Thirdly, this attack will directly benefit Republican Secretary of State Candidate Rep. Severson in his quest to unseat incumbent Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (DFL). By attacking the results of 2008 Republicans are able to challenge Ritchie credibility as the administrator of our state’s elections.

Fourthly, there also is a residual benefit in a local Ramsey County election. By creating the specter of illegality in multiple ways justifies the need for strong law enforcement and hence more law and order candidates like Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher. By developing a red herring narrative of the potential of stolen elections it begs the question for a strong enforcer.

The recent engagement in this conversation by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is also interesting to note. As he continues his call for photo id he helps keep these unproven issues at the fore. This is surprising since in 2007 the legislature sent him an elections bill which called for the Department of Public Safety to work with the Secretary of State’s office to create a voter file cross referenced with the DPS database. This means every registered voter would be able to be cross checked against any database of felons well in advance of coming to the polls.

Additionally, since this discussion is based on illegality it is likely those involved in other types of illegally activity will be the ones likely to be carrying an illegal form of identification in the first place. There is no guarantee a driver’s license or identification card is a valid proof of identification. If the person in question is forging money how hard would it be to forge a photo id?

While we are awaiting the release of another poll in the DFL governor’s race we are hearing the numbers are shifting. Previously, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) lead the field with 39% followed by House Speaker Rep. Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) at 26% and former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza at 22%.

We understand the race is tightening as anticipated at the expense of Dayton. Both Kelliher and Entenza are improving with likely DFL Primary voters while Dayton is declining. We hear DFL tracking polls are showing slight erosion for Dayton into the mid-thirties, an equal rise for Kelliher into the upper twenties and Entenza climbing out of single digits into the low teens.

This information comes just after Kelliher began running television commercials.

When people see money changing hands, cash specifically, they often conclude two things; one, the person receiving the cash doesn’t likely pay taxes on the money and two, they are getting a lot of it. When we heard Rep. Tom Emmer’s (R-19B, Delano) comment of tipped employees making $100,000 dollars annually, we were scratching our proverbial heads to understand who would be in a situation to make this kind of income.

After racking our brains for awhile we have concluded there are only two legal establishments  where the volume of cash transactions could occur to create such an opportunity for a person earning $5.25 or 6.15/hr to accumulate that much money in the course of a year; those being in a casino or a strip club. We doubt the average waitress at Perkins© will make anything close to 100K.

If politicians draw on their personal experiences, it is unlikely those who identify with the principles of the Republican Party are willing to admit publicly they attend such reprobate places, Tom Emmer included. Our experience with tipped employees does not draw the same conclusions.

In his statement, Emmer struck a flat note with the electorate. Many people worked their way through college or hold part-time jobs at minimum wage in order to receive tipped income. The ready cash at the end of a shift makes a quick trip to the grocery store an easier outing rather than the need to plan for the journey every two weeks.

Historically, Minnesota became more of a service economy during the 1980’s due to significant job losses in the manufacturing sector, which continued in the 90’s. Our state followed the national trend of companies finding cheaper workers in foreign countries to reduce the costs for manufacturing of our disposable goods. Equally, the loss in the manufacturing sector resulted in loss of union labor jobs and the failure of the service sector to organize union shops in the service industry help the downward trend continue.

This comment could make Emmer seem out-of-touch with the average Minnesota, similar to when President George H. W. Bush (R) is reported to walked through a check-out line in New Hampshire a commented his “astonishment” of a Supermarket barcode scanner. A poor economy became the principle issue end of the Bush Presidency and the focal point of the 1992 election.

It is interesting to see the response by the Emmer campaign, rather than run from the issue they are now calling for tax cuts for tipped employees up to $20,000. This means the campaign is remaining consistent a finding opportunities to call for tax cuts at every turn.

Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) finally has entered the fray with her own television commercial, which supporters first viewed via her Iphone along with pitch to help fund its distribution. Yesterday, her campaign announced they had raised $1 million to help promote her bid with the electorate.

There has been little recent polling in this race to determine if any movement has occurred since the last SurveyUSA poll June 17th to see if former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton’s (D) 39 to 26 point lead over Kelliher or  the 22points over former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza has changed. Over the weekend we collected some anecdotal comments from people who had been paying attention to the Primary election and their conclusion is Entenza airs his family’s dirty laundry and works the sympathy angle, which works with some and turns most off. In spite of commercials talking about new green jobs and education, he never clearly states what he plans to do. Yes, these issues are important, but being short on specifics is not informative.

We still think Entenza will not move up in the polls unless he applies pressure to Dayton, and when he does Kelliher will be the likely benefactor. We are not sure if Entenza’s wife Lois Quam’s decision not to talk about her wealth or stock options she received from UnitedHealthCare will hold much sway with the DFL Primary electorate, but there is still nearly a month left in the contest. Governor's Race: Finance Laws Allow Silence.

DFLer’s like Dayton’s plan to “Tax the Rich” they see him as someone who is willing to personally sacrifice and help get the state out of the hole Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) put it in. His continued attention on senior citizens is highly appreciated by the older portion of the DFL electorate.

As to Kelliher since her ad had yet to run on local television, there were fewer opinions on her campaign. In spite of being the House Speaker and the DFL endorsed candidate, she is seen as a blank slate. For those who have seen her commercial they found it somewhat informative as her personal history, but not as to her plans for fixing the states woes.

State Auditor Candidate Pat Anderson (R) put an interesting post up on her Facebook page yesterday. She posted she is willing to bet with anyone that Republican will take both the U.S. House and the state House this election. It appears Anderson is a believer in national trends impacting Minnesota.

If the generic ballot for the U.S. House favors Republicans and Republicans in the House of Representatives then it could also carry the Republican Constitutional Candidates. There is one wrinkle in this idea and that is on a statewide basis the Minnesota rarely does a “do over” on a previous decision. When Paul Wellstone (D) beat U.S. Senator Rudy Boschwitz (R) in 1990, the electorate reinforced the decision in 1996, with a larger margin for U.S. Senator Wellstone.

Historically, Democratic strategists have focused on motivating three traditional groups to show up and support their respective candidate in a Primary election. These are: Seniors, Women and Party Activists/Labor Union members. In Minnesota, this three-legged stool may be expanding to incorporate a fourth leg. An emerging electorate consisting of new constituency groups is growing and each year will play a larger role in our future electoral results.

Immigrant communities of Hispanics, East Africans and Hmong all are seeing increases in their populations due to in migration and child birth. Additionally, the longer these communities reside here in the state the greater the number of people who seek and receive citizenship, making them eligible voters. We will see the size of growth once the results of the 2010 U.S. Census is known.

The electoral experience in other countries is far different than here in the United States. The reason many of the people have traveled across the globe to come to our state is often for political asylum. The global conflicts in Somalia, Ethiopia and South East Asia have shaped the impressions these communities have with their governments and often times the experience is not favorable. Casting a vote for the wrong political party is a life-threatening decision.

If our political community can engage these new Americans and encourage them to vote they will find rewards through their political participation. The elections of Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN5) in 2006 and President Barack Obama (D) in 2008 are direct examples to these communities of the successes capable in an American democracy.

In order to best understand the Primary electorate it is warranted to review past elections. In 2000, 433,399 people voted in the DFL Primary for U.S. Senate with Mark Dayton (D) carrying 41.29%. In 2006, in a Gubernatorial Primary between Attorney General Mike Hatch and for State Auditor Judi Dutcher (DFL) against State Senator Becky Lourey and Tom Baylor (DFL) 316,470 people voted in the Primary with Hatch and Dutcher securing 73.20% of the vote. In 2008, 251,205 people voted in the U.S. Senate Primary with Al Franken (DFL) receiving 65.34% of the vote.

If anticipated turnout for an August Primary is expected to be lower, then the participation rate seen in 2006 is a good indicator to make any assessments from. If the expected universe of the Primary electorate is around 300,000 then questions ascertaining who has the greater base is a worthy exercise.

Many see this race as Dayton’s to lose, mainly due to name recognition and most of the early polling has shows him in the lead. The most recent poll from KSTP/Survey USA shows Dayton (D) with 39%; Kelliher (DFL) at 26%; Matt Entenza (DFL) at 22%; and 14% undecided. So far only Dayton and Entenza are running television commercials, but the question is will a Primary electorate respond best to a general advertising campaign or not?

Going back to the structure of a DFL Primary electorate Dayton is expected to fare well with Seniors due to his self-financed bus trips to Canada for prescription drugs in 2000 and continued his focus on Senior issues this election specifically his selection of Sen. Yvonne Prettner-Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as head of his Senior Service Center. He also has the support of some organized labor with the endorsements of AFSCME Council 5, Teamsters 32, the Steelworkers and Police and Peace Officers Federation. Collectively, these unions represent approximately 135,000 members.

As the DFL endorsed candidate Kelliher has many tools at her disposal she has access to the DFL voter file, which has improved significantly through incorporation of the Voter Action Network (VAN). This means good and great Democrats are identifiable available for targeting efforts. The DFL sample ballot is one of the traditional outreach methods. The DFL endorsed candidate has succeeded in the all Primary contests since 2000, when Dayton defeated Senator Jerry Janezich (DFL).

Along with the party’s endorsement Kelliher has the support of a far greater number of labor unions. AFSCME Council 65, Building & Trades, Education MN, Carpenter’s Union, CWA, IBEW, Machinists, MN Nurses, Operating Engineers and Unite HERE. This coalition consists of organizations representing over 300,000 members. The question is whether the support of the leadership of these unions will result in votes on August 10^th.

Kelliher has one unique factor in this election, gender and she has been capitalizing on it, but polling is not showing any advantage for her in this category with the Primary electorate. The MPR/Humphrey Institute poll in May, Dayton outpolled Kelliher with women. The questions regarding gender may also be a factor in the endorsing unions. Most of the labor unions are heavily dominated by men. It should be noted many of the labor leaders are men and they elected to support Kelliher. There are only five unions who have higher numbers of women in their membership; AFSCME Council 5 & 65, Education Minnesota, MAPE and MN Nurses, of these four out of five have endorsed Kelliher.

We continue to feel Entenza will be the odd man out this election in spite of a significant increase in his support numbers in the KSTP Poll. In a three-way race he will need to leapfrog Kelliher to be a factor in this election and challenge Dayton directly. We doubt that will happen he lacks a natural base in the Primary electorate.

In advance of the vote, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) decried the fairness of the endorsement process of the Minnesota AFL-CIO because of an early press release announcing support for House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) prior to the screening. The vote to endorse Kelliher failed 35 to 27 with 42 votes required to confer the endorsement for the requisite 2/3^rd majority. After the result Dayton’s calls for fairness seem to have been unnecessarily since the outcome was the best he could have hoped for.

We were interested in the AFL-CIO endorsement politics and so we made a few calls. Coming into the vote Dayton carried the support of AFSCME Council 5 and the United Steelworkers accounting for 19 votes of the 69 available or 27.53%. As we understand only 62 people voted meaning the Dayton block was even larger. This was not a table set to endorse Kelliher.

Our intelligence gathering informs us President Shar Knutson and Secretary/Treasurer Steve Hunter originally from AFSCME voted in favor of endorsing Kelliher and against the endorsement of their former union, but others also voted contrary to their unions. The Communications Workers Association had three votes in the endorsement and both Tim Lovaasen and Tim Donovan voted against a Kelliher endorsement, Bill McCarthy is actually more of a Unite Here vote than actually a CWA vote. Brianna Halverson (IAMAW) also voted not to endorse as did Mary Broderick (Education MN), Mike Hawthorne (Minneapolis Building Trades) and Charlie Witt (Ironworkers).

If these people had voted in favor of Kelliher she could have secured the endorsement. This is why the Building & Trades waited to announce their endorsement after the results of the AFL-CIO became known.

In spite of losing the AFL-CIO endorsement many of the labor unions who endorsed Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) have comprehensive plans to get their membership to vote absentee in the DFL Primary. They are treating the Primary Election the same way they would a General Election.

The plans are:

· Phone members informing them of the forthcoming Primary election, who their respective union has endorsed and notice of an Absentee Ballot arriving in the mail.

· Mail Absentee Ballot

· Mail follow-up post card

· Where possible distribute work site flier

· Final phone call for GOTV

If the labor unions supporting MAK are able to get a majority of their membership to vote for their endorsed candidate then the Primary result is far less daunting. We understand name recognition is one of Kelliher‘s biggest problems, but one-on-one contact between labor leaders and their membership may not be reflected in any polling figures.

We were interested in the endorsement piece sent out by AFSCME Council 5 in support of their endorsed candidate former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D). In the item entitled “AFSMCE members need a governor who supports them” Dayton, Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) are all singled out. Since the match-up with Emmer will not take place until November 2^nd it is clear the intent is to undercut Emmer at every turn.

What is surprising is the lack reference to former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza anywhere in the piece. Is it the fact AFSCME Council 5 considers Entenza a non-factor in the Primary Election? Is this a back-handed way AFSCME Council 5 President Elliot Seide can assist his friend Entenza without showing any outright support? Or was there just not enough room to include Entenza, but then why incorporate Emmer in a Primary piece where he is not a candidate?

One other interesting question this raises is if the leader of the state house leader is inadequate to the state’s largest public employee labor union then what about the members of the majority who also supported to cut the state budget by $2.6 million. Is AFSCME Council 5 putting itself at odds with House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) and the entirety of the DFL House should they retain majority?

To view the piece click here:

Judge Gerald Heaney is one of the most influential people in DFL politics. He is known for his work in desegregation decisions from St. Louis, MO to Little Rock, AR. He was instrumental in the formation of the DFL party along with Orville Freeman, Hubert H. Humphrey II and Walter Mondale.

Politically, his appointment to the 8th Circuit Appeals Court proved to be a great benefit to the DFL Party during redistricting decisions. He drew the political boundaries in 1971 and 1981 creating district favorable to DFL candidate and resulted in legislative majorities in each instance.

He passed away on Tuesday at the age of 92 and is survived by his wife Eleanor.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in January on Citizen’s United v. Federal Elections Commission is likely to impact in our elections this year. We understand the business community is concerned interest groups and the DFL Party will be able to paint GOP endorsed candidate Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) and will begin running ads in July to soften his image. The group to be headed by Brian McClung and financed by members of the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce will play role in this summer's campaign.

Since Emmer lacks a legitimate challenge in the Republican Primary he has a virtually cakewalk to the up until August 10^th. Problem is Emmer could become a caricature of the extreme Republican Right. His past fiery debates on the House floor along with his knack for going for the jugular could identify him more with the Tea Party movement than it will mainstream Conservatives. This also could be a response to Emmer's endorsement by former Alaska Governor Sara Palin (R).

The existence of former Republican Commentator Tom Horner (IP) may give moderates a place to land if they are uncomfortable with Emmer, which would end the Republican lock on the Governor’s Mansion since 1990, with one exception being the election of Jesse Ventura in 1998.

With the filing period is over and there being twenty-four open legislative seats we thought a listing of the various match-ups warranted some consideration. In the following article we discuss potential impact on the DFL Governor's race. 

A number of interesting legislative primaries are set for August 10th. On the House DFL side first-term Rep.  John Persell (DFL-04A, Bemidji) has drawn a primary challenge from Mark Thorson (DFL). The selection by former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) of Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as his running mate created a bit of dominos and resulted in two primaries. The choice by Rep. Roger Reinert (DFL-07B, Duluth) to seek the senate seat opened up his house seat and creates a primary contest between Jay Cole (DFL) and Kerry Gauthier (DFL). The St. Cloud 15B seat being vacated by Rep. Larry Haws sets up a contest between Zachary Dorholt (DFL) and Carol Lewis (DFL).  In the Blaine area of District 51A, DFL Endorsed Candidate Zak Chlebeck is matched against Omar Merhi (DFL). In Minneapolis, Rep. Joe Mullery (DFL-58A, Minneapolis) is being challenged by David Anthony Boyd (DFL) and the St. Paul seat vacated by Rep. Cy Thao creates a match-up between the DFL endorsed candidate and Jeremiah Ellis and Rena Moran. Moran has the backing of TakeAction Minnesota and it will be interesting to see who has more pull the DFL Party or a self-described progressive organization.  

The Republicans have a few House primary fights of their own to complete. The Mora area will watch former Mora Mayor Roger Crawford (R) and Rudy Takala (R) slug it out to ultimately face-off against Rep. Tim Faust (DFL-08B, Mora) in November. There is no GOP endorsement in this race.  The open seat 17B, currently held by retiring DFL Rep. Jeremy Kalin, has Wyoming Mayor Sheldon Anderson (R) competing with GOP endorsed candidate Bob Barrett (R). District 29A, being vacated by Rep. Randy Demmer (R) in his bid for Congress in the 1st Congressional District, has GOP endorsed candidate Duane Quam defending against Kerry Stoick (R).  Rep. Mark Buesgens (R- 35B, Jordan) will need to take time from his duties as Campaign Manager for GOP Gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer (R) to fend-off a challenge from Tom Rees (R).  The Maplewood seat held by Rep. Leon Lillie (DFL-55A, Maplewood) has GOP endorsed candidate Nathan Hansen facing a challenge from Bob Zwick (R) and in District 62A, GOP endorsed candidate Wes Whitby  will need to hold-off Kirk Brink (R) in order to face Rep. Jim Davnie (DFL-62A, Minneapolis).

The primary in Senate District 07 pits Rep. Roger Reinert (DFL-07B, Duluth) against Harry R. Welty (DFL). The retirement of Sen. Steve Murphy (DFL-28, Red Wing) set the stage for a contest between Joe Fricke (DFL) and Bruce Montplaisir (DFL). Three-term incumbent Sen. Ann Rest (DFL-45, New Hope) is defending herself against Patrick Wiles (DFL). After his self-imposed wounding Sen. Satveer Chaudhary (DFL-50, Fridley) is facing a challenge from Barb Goodwin (DFL), a former House member who served until 2006. Four-term incumbent Sen. Linda Higgins (DFL-58, Minneapolis) is in a fight with two opponents, Troy Parker (DFL) and Kale Severson (DFL).  The most clogged field of candidates is in St. Paul where nine DFLers are seeking the opportunity to replace Sen. Mee Moua. The field is contains: four Hmong, two African American and one Eastern Indian candidate.  The candidates are: St. Paul Police Chief John M. Harrington, Foung Hawj (Heu), Tom Hilber, Chai Lee, Vang T. Lor, Jim McGowan, Trayshana P. Thomas, Avi Viswanathan and Cha Yang.

Republicans will see a primaries in Senate District 01 between GOP endorsed candidate Roger Schmitz and Russell Walker, Senate District 12 between embattled incumbent Sen. Paul Koering (R-12, Fort Ripley) and former one-term Rep. Paul Gazelka who carries the GOP endorsement, in Senate District  16 it’s a race between GOP endorsed candidate Dave Brown and Patrick D. Munro (R) and lastly in Senate District 41 Sen. Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina) faces a party challenge from William “Bill” Reichert.

There is a potential for some of these races to foster greater participation in the DFL Governor’s Primary contest. Any external factors generating larger turnout in pockets around the state can have an impact on the races up the ballot.

Speculation of the August Primary having a lower turnout is expected in many quarters, but a lower turnout of whom is what people should be asking. If August is a prime month for people to be off at their cabins then it is likely these voters could be lower in number, but if a person doesn’t own a cabin or use a state park they will likely be home on the second Tuesday in August. There is a potential for lower income voters to play a larger role in this election, if they can be motivated.

In addition to the primaries for the state legislative seats there are primaries for three of the seven Hennepin County Commissioner seats. In spite of these seats being non-partisan the DFL has endorsed a number of candidates. First District Commissioner Mike Opat (DFL) is the DFL endorsed candidate and he is facing Tom Reynolds and Mary O’Connor. Second District Commissioner Mark Stenglien (DFL) is the DFL endorsed candidate and he is facing Blair Tremere and Roger Smithrud. Finally, Third District Commissioner Gayle Dorfman (DFL) is also the DFL endorsed candidate and she faces Barry Lazarus and Jeffery Beck. In each instance the two highest vote total recipients will see each other again in November.

In Ramsey County, there is one County-wide contest in the Ramsey County Attorney’s race where DFL endorsed candidate, former St. Paul City Attorney John Choi is contending with GOP endorsed candidate Tammy Pust and Hamline Law Professor David Schultz. Additionally, First District County Commissioner Rafael Ortega (DFL) carries the DFL endorsement against Andy Noble and Charles Barkind.

These races will help and their campaigns will help motivate some voters come to the polls, who might be just as willing to sit home. The statewide question on the governor’s race is the first question on the ballot followed by the county races and then the legislative contests.

As we look at the various races there could be a benefit for House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) in the more urban races. The more voters that show up to vote in the legislative primaries in Minneapolis and St. Paul could be helpful to her campaign. Since gender is her unique attribute Kelliher could find support from voters in South Minneapolis and St. Louis Park supporting County Commissioner Gayle Dorfman, in Fridley from those voting for Barb Goodwin (DFL) in Senate District 50, in New Hope and Robinsdale from those supporting Sen. Ann Rest (DFL-54, New Hope) and in North and Downtown Minneapolis from those voting for Sen. Linda Higgins (DFL-58, Minneapolis).  

Likewise, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) should benefit from the primaries in Bemidji and Duluth. Since the only African-American candidate in this race is former DFL House Majority Leader Matt Entenza’s Lt. Governor pick of Robyne Robinson, her addition could be a factor in North Minneapolis, the Frogtown race in St. Paul and on St. Paul’s East side, but it is unlikely. People rarely vote because of a Lt. Governor selection. The Hispanic vote is essentially up for grabs and since no one candidate gets the benefits bestowed by a Latin name, this constituency group might be swayed by the DFL endorsement, since the party has chartered a Hispanic Caucus and actively outreaches into this community.

The Minnesota candidate filing period began May 18th and ends on Tuesday, June 1st. We are now beginning to see with greater clarity what a summer with an August Primary actually looks like. Many expect an earlier primary will result in lower turnout and hence means the number of factors determining the eventual victors are highly concentrated.

The main contest is clearly the DFL Primary for Governor. Turnout is the key component for success for these campaigns and will be mainly be dictated by those candidates in the field, but also the other primary elections can play a significant role. Especially, in the 6th Congressional District fight between DFL endorsed candidate Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-15, St. Cloud) and Dr. Maureen Reed. This race is generating national attention and additional interest, especially from those interested in unseating incumbent Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) in November. The contest will bring out more voters in the heat of the summer intent on bolstering their choice as the best candidate to defeat Bachmann.

Yesterday, former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza made the biggest news hit of the week with his announcement of former KMSP 9 News Anchor Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson retired from the anchor chair just the night before.  It’s doubtful her addition to the Entenza team will assist his campaign from the back of the DFL Primary electorate pack, but if women and people of color can be encouraged to participate in an August Primary—especially in light of a low turnout election—anything is possible though unlikely.

The choice of Robinson is tactically interesting. Republicans called the move a “Hail Mary Pass” and they may be right. As a woman of color with an attractive and familiar face, Robinson will likely garner more attention than will Entenza. Her race could help turnout the African-American vote in Minneapolis and St. Paul if those voters can become engaged. Although we believe the existence of contested primaries the two legislative seats being vacated by Rep. Cy Thao (DFL-65A, St. Paul) and Sen. Mee Moua (DFL-67, St. Paul) could have a greater effect.

In House District 65A, the race between the two African-American candidates Jeremiah Ellis and Rena Moran create an opportunity the gubernatorial candidates to appeal to this electorate on the bias of both race and gender. The field is not yet set in Senate District 67 and likely will remain unclear until filings close. As of now Tom Hilber, Vang Lor, Jim McGowan and Avi Viswanathan have filed, but discussion of an African-American candidate the likes of retiring St. Paul Police Chief John Harrington and Ramsey County Deputy Director for Community Relations & External Affairs Chris Crutchfield are names being discussed.  Local primary elections will help motivate the various communities to participate in August and will help boost turnout.

Additionally, the selection by former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) of Sen. Yvonne Prettner-Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) is likely to have a similar effect.  Her choice could bring about at least one primary in Duluth. Most likely it will be for the House Seat 07B, being vacated by Rep. Roger Reinert (DFL-07B, Duluth) to seek the open Solon seat. Currently, only one DFL candidate has filed, Kerry Gauthier, a former DFL 8th Congressional District Chair, but when Reinert originally sought to position, in 2008, he faced a field of four other candidates.

If the 2008 race in 07B can provide any analytical value we conclude the following: There was not a competitive election between DFL endorsed candidate Al Franken (DFL) and late entry Pricilla Lord Faris (DFL) and the total number of votes cast was 3385. In the House 07B race, there were only 7 fewer votes cast in this case the turnout was more for the legislative race than it was for the U.S. Senate race.

Granted, in 2010, things are different because we have a contentious primary in the race for Governor, but if turnout is expected to ebb due to an August election, then factor such as local elections will have a greater impact on the statewide contest.

Memorial Day is not just another three-day weekend; its purpose is to commemorate those who have given their lives in service to our country. On Monday, stop and take a moment to honor those who have made the ultimate sacrifice in their service to the United States of America.

Those who are gone today, are the reason you enjoy the freedoms you likely take for granted.

This Memorial Day Weekend, people can put their money where their mouths are by supporting a cause on Facebook.  If you join the fan page for Call of Duty Endowment (CODE) the organization will donate $1 for each new fan on its Facebook page to a group focused on employment for returning veterans called Hire Heroes USA.

Hire Heroes USA, provides career placement assistance to all returning service men and women, and focuses on transition assistance to Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom veterans, especially those who are injured or disabled.

To become a fan of CODE, visit http://www.facebook.com/pages/Call-Of-Duty-Endowment/199346440490?ref=search&sid=P6OXx5uWA1U28qO93SBnkg.2140421957..1  

We understand former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) will be announcing Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as his running mate tomorrow. This may be he reason he is announcing his choice in tomorrow in Duluth. This means the total of legislative retirements expands to twenty-three. Solon was first elected to the Senate in a Special Election in 2002 after the death of her husband Sam Solon. The pick will help Dayton in Duluth and some parts of St. Louis County, which is an area we anticipate he would already fare well in.

As anyone who followed DFL electoral politics knows primary elections are won mainly through a accumulation of votes from the 4th, 5th and 8th Congressional Districts. If Dayton sought support from the 8th Congressional District he may need assistance shoring up support there. 

Solon was one of the few state legislators to endorse Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D) prior to the DFL State Convention. 

DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) is announcing her selection for Lt. Governor today at 1:00 pm in St. Paul. Our speculation is she is looking to the fall election regarding this selection. We have confirmed her pick is former State Finance Commissioner John Gunyou, someone with independent credentials as well as a strong relationship with former Governor Arne Carlson (R). He is the current city manager for the city of Minnetonka and may appeal to western Hennepin County voters. The largest bloc of DFL voters are in Hennepin County and timing of the Primary in the 2^nd week of August will likely mean a lower turnout and hence the need to shore up one’s base. Gunyou is an affable, competent person, now with experience on the impact of cuts to city governments in a time of stressed economics.

During the DFL State Convention there was a lot of discussion about whom the various candidates should pick for running mates if at all. Many were hoping for a coalition ticket to emerge. Only Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) made an early choice of Sen. Patricia Torres Ray (DFL-62, Minneapolis). Former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza is making his announcement on Twitter and since there are only 949 followers, when last we checked, many of whom are in the media his message will reach the desired audience and make a few people feel special. No word on when former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) will announce.

A look at the eight DFL and fourteen Republican seats creates an interesting picture going into the November elections. By our analysis, three House seats and one senate seat are in rock solid DFL districts, two are in strong DFL leaning districts and the other three are in play and could switch sides. Similarly, in the Republican column, two house seats are in bedrock Republican districts and one senate seat is likewise disposed, with two house seats and three senate seats leaning strongly toward Republicans. Meaning there are four house seats and one senate seat in play.

The safe DFL seats are: 15A, 60A, 65A and 67. The safe Republican seats are: 19B, 34A and 18.

Now if we believe in following conventional wisdom and also believe Republicans— as the party out of power—are well positioned to capitalize on the dissatisfaction brewing in the electorate all toss-up elections should result in Republican wins. Problem is elections rarely work out that way. If we look at the outgoing legislators they show how an individual can buck the trend of a specific district. We will compare the results of legislative races in 2008 to the Presidential outcome between Barak Obama (D) and John McCain (R) and the races in 2006 to the U.S. Senate election between Amy Klobuchar (D) and Mark Kennedy (R).   

Reps. Otremba and Kalin are two examples. Both have election results showing their successes in spite of other partisan elections in their areas. District 11B has been held by Otremba since her husband’s death in 1997. The district is seen as very conservative and as a pro-life DFLer she has consistently outperformed all other Democratic candidates. In 2008, Otremba received a 9.50% higher vote total than Obama and 9.38% more than did Klobuchar in 2006.This seat will be hard for the DFL to maintain unless a candidate similar in profile to Otremba emerges.         

In District 17B, Kalin has sought office on three occasions being elected on the second attempt and then reelected at a higher percentage than Democratic candidates, who prevailed statewide, but not in his district. Kalin secured a 9.28% higher percentage than Obama and a 6.27% advantage over Klobuchar in 2006. These are the only two retirees who track significantly better than other candidates up the ballot.

In the other seats the legislative retirees and statewide candidates trend in the same direction, but numbers differ somewhat creating possible openings. In district 14B, Severson, twice elected had margins of 54.95% in 2008 and 53.94% in 2006 and performed better than McCain by .08% and Kennedy by 6.83% in 2006. This seat could move into the DFL column with a conservative DFL candidate, but will likely stay put.

In district 15, the retirement of Clark—challenger to Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6)— will not likely have an impact if the students from St. Cloud State University (STSU) continue to influence elections by voting with the Democrats. This trend could change because of Republican endorsed house candidate for 15A King Banian is an economics professor at STSU. The district voted strongly for Obama in 2008 and lacking a state senate election that year the best we can ascertain is the 15A side favored Haws well and helped balance out the district for Clark in 2006, where she received 56.30% compared to Klobuchar with 53.45%. The DFL endorsed candidate Bruce Hentges is a current school board member and his ties to education should assist in his election. Basically, we think so goes house seat 15A so goes senate seat 15.

In district 17A, Eastland has survived close elections. He won with 53.18% in 2008 when McCain received 56.29% and in 2006 he secured 50.51% while Kennedy only had 44.58%. This could change hands with the right DFL candidate, but no DFLer has filed for the seat. Lacking a solid candidate on the DFL side Republican win.

In house district 21A and senate district 21 a similar situation exists as does in districts 15A and 15. The existence of Southwest State University (SWSU) and its voting pattern determines the representation in that area. Seifert as an administrator at SWSU helped keep those districts in the Republican column, but DFL candidates with similar ties could do the same in the other direction. Ramona Larson is the DFL endorsed candidate in 21A and Gary Dahms the DFL endorsed candidate for senate district 21 is the only person filed for the seat.

In house district 22A, Magnus has retired to run for the senate seat 22 vacated by Vickerman. Magnus won in 2008 with a majority of 55.44% while McCain on received 51.68%. In 2006, Magnus scored 55.77% while Kennedy only had 48.07%. In the other half of the district Rep. Rod Hamilton (R-22B, Mountain Lake) carried closer margin in 2006winning with 51.51% and expanding that significantly after voting to override Governor Tim Pawlenty’s (R) veto of the Transportation Bill to 60.37% over the same candidate he defeated in 2006. This should be a good opportunity for Magnus to join the senate and keep the house seat in Republican hands.

In house district 25A, Brod bested McCain by 6.53% and Kennedy by 16.02%. The seat has trends Republican and will likely remain as such.             

In senate district 28, Murphy beat now Rep. Steve Drazkowski (R-28B, Wabasha) with 54.26% his margin surpasses the scored 49.57% by Obama in 2008 and is slightly lower than Klobuchar’s 55.17% edge in 2006.

In house district 29A, we see a potential pick-up for the DFL. Many of the legislative seats in the 1^st Congressional District have been moving toward the DFL. Demmer vacated his seat to run against Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN1). In the 2008 election Demmer received 56.57% of the vote while McCain had on 51.49%. In 2006, Kennedy lost with 44.77%.

In house district 57A, Bigham departs a good DFL district if this is a normal election year, but the questions are what is normal and is this a normal election year? Obama carried the district with 56.57% in 2008 and Klobuchar the same in 2006 with 61.98%. Granted candidates make a difference, but all things being equal DFL endorsed candidate Jen Peterson should beat the Republican endorsed candidate Kurt Perkins.

All and all we will not be surprised if the DFL House Majority drops 6-10 seats, but doubt the majority will change hands to the Republicans. In the Senate, the gulf is far too wide and they will remain around 1/3 of the body.

Let us start out with this statement: All polls are suspect. In the age of cell phones and the Internet, we doubt the quality of any statistical sample, in spite of its methodology. That being said we are not surprised at the result.

Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) leads with 38%, DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher is in 2^nd with 28%, former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza trails with 6% with 28% undecided. There is a high margin of error at 5.8%, but that is due to the smaller sample size.

This poll does show something we already assume and that is has nearly universal name recognition. Yes, Dayton leads the pack, but there is still a 12-point stretch away from a simple majority. The poll finds strong support amongst seniors, which also to be expected, but one surprise is the soft support for Kelliher from women.

This reinforces a thought we have heard voiced frequently from other women over the years, which is women are hardest on women candidates. Males candidates can have their flaws but women over emphasize flaws in female candidates to the extreme.  Kelliher’s lack of a adequate resolution to the budget crisis and the perception of being outmaneuvered by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) this session and in the last session may have affected the outcome.

We spoke with the Independence Party endorsed candidate Tom Horner and gained some insight into his election strategy. He is trying to duplicate the Jesse Ventura election of 1998 and secure a plurality victory. His conclusion on the 1998 election is Attorney General Hubert “Skip” Humphrey III failed to perform to the level of his base in the election and his weakness benefited Ventura who received 37% of the vote.

Similarly, in this election Horner seeks to demonize Republican endorsee Tom Emmer as far too extreme for average Minnesotan’s. Horner intends to stake his tent in the middle ground and attempt to appeal to Independent and moderate Republican voters. The probability of Horner’s success is something we doubt since he lacks the star power of Ventura, but if he is able to secure votes in the 15 to 20% range he will likely help the DFL candidate onto victory.

This could be the first election where an Independent candidate helps rather than harms the DFL candidate.    

Minnesota has an interesting reality and that is every 12 years there is no statewide federal race. The highest statewide election is that for Governor. The last time this occurred Jesse Ventura (RP) was elected and our state began dramatic changes that continue today.

The lack