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The budget negotiations between Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) and DFL legislative leaders: Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) and House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm), Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller and Assistant Majority Leader Tarryl Clark (DFL-15, St. Cloud) to fill the $935 million projected budget shortfall occurred over the weekend. We understand the legislative tax chairs Ann Lenczewski (DFL-40B, Bloomington) and Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) were included in the discussions. The two sides ended talks last night at 11:30 p.m.

The DFL leadership has gained agreement from Pawlenty to not use the Health Care Access Fund as a budget fix and to increase the amount used from the budget reserve. Pawlenty identifies a property tax inflationary cap as a “linchpin” of his budget solution. Limiting the increases on local property taxes prevents municipalities from passing on to constituents the greater burdens faced in their budgeting process. This also limits the amount of blame eligible to be cast Pawlenty’s way.

Pawlenty still seeks to utilize the Health Care Access Fund to transition people from General Medical Assistance into the Minnesota Care Program.  This change in programs provides a cost savings to the state.  Additionally, the governor seeks to parlay some other money from the Health Care Access Fund to maximize the use of TANF monies from the federal government. The two sides are moving closer.

There is some talk about revisiting some bonding issues. Pawlenty said today any in any bonding solution he would expect money for Vermillion State Park and the Minneapolis Veteran Home to be included. He also wants to limit the state’s exposure of operating expenses for the Central Cooridor.      

Many DFL party activists and elected officials, especially freshman House members, are speculating about potential, additional problems set to surface regarding the Al Franken (D) campaign. In his bid to unseat U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) the comedian turned candidate is facing strong opposition now that he appears to be headed for the DFL endorsement. The common belief among DFLer’s is if Republicans are focusing on taxes this early in the campaign, then far greater issues loom for release later. The dribs and drabs nature of the Franken tax history is keeping the issue alive in the pages of the newspaper and on the evening news.

KSTP Channel 5—the other conservative twin cities television station besides Fox—released a poll on the U.S. Senate race on Sunday night. The Survey USA Poll conducted with 615 registered voters resulted in the following: Coleman 52%, Franken 42% with 6% Undecided. In the match-up with Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer the poll shows Coleman 55%, Nelson-Pallmeyer 36% and Undecided 10%.  Franken lost support among Democrats by comparing the results to the March Survey USA Poll by 8%.

The poll also delved into the questions whether Franken’s tax problems will influence their vote this election and whether he should continue to proceed. 59% of the respondents said they were less likely to support Franken because of his tax issues while 31% said the issue did not matter. Additionally, 51% of the respondents felt he should withdraw and 38% thought he should continue. This is not surprising for better than half of those polled think Franken should depart especially with 52% of the respondents supporting Coleman. We are hearing criticisms of the poll from the Franken camp because of the wording of the question. If splitting hairs and semantics are the approach being taken in response then the old adage we often point to of “if you’re explainin you’re not gainin” is in effect.             

Despite claims of self-scrutiny and opposition research—something every candidate needs to undergo—Franken appeared unprepared to get ahead of the story. Right now the Republican Party holds the reins of this issue and is setting the pace. The knee-jerk reactionary mainstream media is doing their bidding and covering each small facet of this story to the nth degree. As this campaign begins to play out, it falls into a familiar category of other past campaigns for U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN). If Coleman is able to shift attention away from him and focus on his opponent, he has an upper hand.  In 1993, the Coleman campaign made DFL endorsed candidate Rep. Andy Dawkins’ (D) past use of marijuana a focal point of the election. By airing this issue and pointing the finger at Dawkins, Coleman kept the attention off of himself. 

With a month before the DFL State Convention the Franken Campaign has to prove its professionalism and ability to run a well-managed campaign. Support for Franken will now be based more on his ability to respond to the Republican attack machine and putting Coleman on the defensive. If the Franken campaign is perceived as in bunker mentality or unable to fend off the onslaught, support will continue to flag. Currently, the Franken Campaign effort seems sub par and not ready for prime time. There is time to recapture the momentum and take it to Coleman, but if the tax issue is the beginning of the attacks then the response from Team Franken will need to be even more noteworthy.

If the contest remains between Franken and Coleman we expect it will be a mudslinging affair of epic proportions. The allegations, charges and counter charges will take on the look of a street fight rather than a race for the U.S. Senate. Minnesota will be exposed to a style of campaigning they have never seen, especially since this is a battle between two New Yorkers.

As we enter into the last two weeks of the legislative session we are getting some indications of what to expect will and will not pass. Today, the House is voting on its tax bill and we doubt there will be an agreement between the House and Senate by the end of session.

Because the Mall of America is seeking a $300 million tax break from Fiscal Disparities Account—a fund established to balance out property tax discrepancies paid by businesses throughout the seven county metropolitan area—we are skeptical it will be a part of the final bill or during an election year House DFLers want to defend additional tax increases. Hence the reason we doubt there will be a tax bill altogether. Tapping the Fiscal Disparities Account is a move strongly opposed by House Tax Chair Ann Lenczewski (DFL-40B, Bloomington), earlier this session she called for ending corporate welfare as we know it, which means her position is consistent.      

We spoke with Lenczewski about her opposition to the Mall of American expansion to which she said, “Their surprised I oppose this. I can not understand why, I have for the last opposed expansion for the 10 years.” We asked what it would take to resolve the conflict and she replied, “The Mall of America needs to come to the table and not ask for “free money.”

Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) has yet to express his support for the idea and is awaiting the final plan. Business leaders especially from Minneapolis businesses oppose the idea of a pool contribute to may be used to fund a project for a competitor. In order to buttress their argument the MOA should come forward with the amount of money they have contributed to the Fiscal Disparities Account. With this as an argument then any business should be able to call for a return from the fund for projects they seek to move forward on. The precedent setting move may be the fundamental problem with the approach. Already discussions are underway how the Fiscal Disparities Account could be used for a new Viking Stadium.  

If the MOA provision is in the tax bill then we are quite confident the bill will not pass. We would not be surprised if the MOA issue were to become a stand alone provision and then be voted on independently.  Because all four caucus leaders have come out in favor of the MOA expansion it is likely to have an easier route outside of the tax bill.      

Rep. Jim Abeler (R-48B, Anoka) gained the greatest amount of attention this legislative session as one of the “Venerable Six” Republicans who voted to override Governor Tim Pawlenty’s (R) on the transportation bill. Abeler, a Chiropractor by profession, supported the argument of the transportation bill being a “jobs bill” and recognizes the need to jump start the economy. He favors the tax break for expansion at the Mall of America (MOA) using the same rationale, which is surprising given that the original MOA construction delayed transportation projects in Anoka County for nearly a decade.

Gearing up for his reelection this summer Abeler has had a series of three wooden nickels printed for distribution during his campaign. They emphasis his “independent leadership” and will be a easy novelty to dispense during parades and while door knocking. 

We suggest Abeler get a belt coin dispenser to help expedite the distribution.

Former Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer (R) was lightning rod during her time in office. She played the perfect role for the Republican Party as chief elections officer by employing any mechanism which made voting harder and more complicated, rather than streamlining the process and cultivating more opportunities for people to vote.

She played on unsubstantiated fears of voter fraud and irregularities, which is a page from the Republican playbook and supported calls for identification cards at polling places. Her blind faith support for the Help America Vote Act wasted federal dollars for voting machines, which will be thrown upon trash heaps in less than a decade and created a reliance on unreliable technology. Now she seeks to be a state representative.

Over the weekend Kiffmeyer defeated embattled Rep. Mark Olson (R-16B, Big Lake) for the Republican Party endorsement.  Olson was convicted of a domestic assault charge against his wife after the last legislative session and he was ousted from the House Republican Caucus as a result of the charge. Olson has discussed the possibility of contesting as an independent candidate, but has not made his intentions clear.

Mary Kiffmeyer has the opportunity to follow her husband into the House. Ralph Kiffmeyer (R) served for one-term elected in 1984 and is noted for legislation banning the sale or use of sexual aides i.e. dildos and vibrators except in the case of law enforcement officials, judges and elected officials.

During Ralph’s term, Mary regularly baked bread providing it to members and staff in the House retiring room, hence the nickname “Breadbaker Mary.”

Last week, we discussed the goal of the Senate to have its work completed by the end of the day Monday.  On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) informed his colleagues of his intent to pass all Omnibus Finance Bills off of the Senate floor on Monday.  Lobbyists scoffed at the idea and doubted the Senate could complete its work that quickly. All of the Senate business ended on Friday and committees did not meet over the weekend. We are currently watching the Senate and most bills are passing without any discussion or amendments.

With the Senate completing the bulk of its work they are now waiting on the House. The House is not prepared to complete it work as quickly. Because the House is up for reelection this year and the Senate is not it would seem that the Senate would differ to the House, but such is not the case. In 2004, Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson (DFL-13, Willmar) understood the importance of helpful to the other body.  In 2004, the DFL minority gained legislative seats.

We expect the legislature will adjourn before its May 19^th deadline so that House members will be able to argue they completed their work early.     

We have marked the lack of civility at the legislature, especially in the House on a number of occasions. We attribute much of the acrimony to three issues:  1) Selection of Rep. Steve Sviggum (R) as House Minority Leader in 1993. 2) The Contract with American during the 1994 election. 3) John Marty’s Lobbyist Gift Ban in 1994.  These three factors in our estimation created a more partisan legislature and brought about a more divisive political process.       

With Sviggum at the helm of the Republican House Caucus the House Chamber became less of the debating society applying the rules according to Mason’s and Customs and Usage, but rather a series of kidney and rabbit punches. The civil dialogue of his predecessors Terry Dempsey (R) and Bill Schreiber (R) became echoes of the past. The seething anger and acerbic comments by Sviggum were first seen as an annoyance due to his small majority later became a larger threat as his majority began to grow. Every ruling of the Speaker became a mechanism to politically differentiate between DFLers and Republicans. The 1994, election significantly eroded the sizable gains seen in the House by DFLer’s in the 1992 election. In 1996, the DFL House Majority gained one seat and in turn ousted Rep. Irv Anderson (DFL-03A, International Falls) from the speakership. Ultimately, in 1998, Sviggum rose to the Speaker’s post himself.

At the federal level, House Minority Leader Newt Gingrich (R-GA6) through the Contract with America nationalized the 1994 election. Every elected office, be it for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, a governorship or a legislative seat was seen in partisan terms. The resulting tide changed the composition of Congress, many governorships and state legislatures. In Minnesota, Governor Arne Carlson’s (R) reelection benefited from the national trend and Congressman Rod Grams (R) ascended to the U.S. Senate and DFL Majority the Minnesota House of Representatives lost nine seats.    

The 1995, legislative session began in the aftermath of the 1994 election and without lobbyists footing the bill for social functions around the legislature after hours everything was focused on politics. Previously, the business activities of the day could be softened by socialization across the aisle and with the other chamber, but due to John Marty’s gift ban all interaction after the close of business stopped.

As a backdrop to the changed nature of the legislature we delved into the past, pre-Sviggum. During Rep. Bob Vanasek’s (D) four-year tenure as Speaker of the House there was only one challenge to the ruling of the chair, which failed. We also spoke with current House Minority Leader Marty Seifert (R-21A, Marshall) asking whether he saw opportunities for bipartisan work and he acknowledged his job is to get his caucus back into the majority. So seems like the era of Sviggum continues.

Republican Party operatives are wondering out loud as to the state of the Republican Party this election due to endorsements of legislative candidates at various local party unit conventions. In three separate instances delegates endorsed candidates not recommended by the Republican House Caucus led by House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, (R-21A, Marshall). 

In southeastern Minnesota, District 31B, former Rep. Greg Davids (R) was selected on the first ballot over caucus backed Steve Bissen (R). Another Republican candidate for endorsement Al Hein, Davids 2004 DFL opponent has yet to declare if he will contest in the Republican Party primary. If Davids remains uncontested or wins the September primary the race sets up a rematch between Davids and Rep. Ken Tschumper (DFL-31B, La Crescent).  In 2006, Tschumper defeated Davids by 53 votes.

In a presidential election years Democratic candidates usually receive an electoral boost and by all indications this election appears to be trending that way. This will mean a longer row to hoe for Davids. We spoke with Davids three weeks prior to the 2006 election and at the time he was parroting comments by then House Speaker Steve Sviggum (R) of retaining the majority and even picking up seats.  As we now know the Republicans, including Davids were swept out of office by a sizable margin.

In two suburban races often thought of as Republican strongholds district 53A and 37B the delegates again chose candidates not advanced by the Republican caucus. In Shoreview, the delegates selected John Knappler (R) a conservative candidate over another former legislator in Sen. Mady Reiter (R) and also the Republican Caucus choice in Laura Merickle (R) to challenge Rep. Paul Gardner (DFL-53A, Shoreview). Gardner ousted famed government opponent Phil “Dr. No” Krinkie (R), who now heads the Taxpayers League of Minnesota.  During her time in the Senate Reiter was known as a colorful member of the more sedate body. Her additions to the various debates on the floor of the chamber made the proceedings far more interesting to watch.

In District 37B, delegates endorsed Judy Lindsay—a former member of the area school board member who pushed arch-conservative social agenda during her tenure—over the opposition of retiring twelfth term Rep. Dennis Ozment (R-37B, Rosemount) and Sen. Chris Gerlach (R-37, Apple Valley). Lindsay defeated the Republican Caucus candidate Debra Kaczmarek (R).

As people are developing an understanding of delegate choices—different from that of the caucus leadership—they attribute these results to the strong support seen at the precinct caucuses for Presidential candidates former Governor Mitt Romney (R) and Texas Congressman Ron Paul (R). The fact Romney won here in Minnesota and Paul showed a strong performance in spite of Governor Tim Pawlenty’s (R) backing of U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and Republican Party Chair Ron Carey’s endorsement of former Governor Mike Huckabee (R) being strong evidence.

If the Republican Party is putting forward staunch conservative candidates and former elected officials with long voting records they stand a chance of being out of step with the

As we are watching the legislative session move into its final stages the finish is becoming readily apparent. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) and the DFL controlled legislature seem to have agreed where the budget cuts are set to occur—in Health and Human Services—and now the question remains on just how deep the cuts will be. 

The concerns for the administration are not just the current 2008-09 budget, but also the 2010-11 obligations.  As we have heard stated time and time again Pawlenty express his concerns over 15% annual increases in health care costs.  The rising costs associated with social services for people with less economic means, which are then met by the state creates a significant increasing burden for the state. While the needs of the disadvantaged are met the rest of society still feels the same pressures though lacking a governmental offset.

Pawlenty originally targeted the Health Care Access fund, which is created through the 2% fee paid at hospitals and clinics by all Minnesotan’s—often a target of Republicans—for a sizable $250 million reduction and the legislature countered with $125 million along with additional budget cuts. Pawlenty saw this as a non-starter seeking to use an existing pot of money pay fill the hole in the budget.

As the last three weeks play out, we know where the attention is focused and now it is just the case of each side agreeing to a final number.

As we watch the series of stories regarding questions over presumptive DFL nominee U.S. Senate Candidate Al Franken’s (D) tax woes in California we wonder if our earlier assessments may have been dead on.  As discussions of Franken’s candidacy grew more plausible we stated our opinion of Franken being the consummate foil again U.S. Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) but eventually leaving the field in favor of another candidate. We felt this would best play out throughout the summer.  

Now the questions we field regarding the Senate race with DFLers are: How much do you think Franken is damaged; can Franken pull it off or who do you think can step in?  With the departure of Mike Ciresi (D) and point we are at in the endorsement it seems clear Franken is still poised to secure the DFL endorsement. We doubt Ciresi can reenter the race and no matter how badly Franken is damaged the door will remain closed to Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (D).

As DFLers seek a way out of the current situation they are beginning look for a well heeled candidate who can self-finance and meet Coleman head on. 

Here is an earlier piece we published on the matter.     

http://www.checksandbalances.com/node/241