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The old numbers of legislative districts are no longer relevant after the November election since the Judicial Redistricting Panel realigned the numbering system. Incumbent Republicans, in both the House and Senate, which have been paired together to a greater degree than have DFLers, may now have buyer’s remorse for not agreeing on a legislative map. The partisan divide has created too much distrust in the halls of the legislature and the two sides cannot even agree on which direction the sun rises, let alone something clearly in their own vested interests as an redistricting map.
In the house the pairing are evenly split with twelve DFLers drawn into the same district and twelve Republicans drawn into the same district. There are three DFLers drawn into the same district as incumbent Republicans and there are fifteen open seats. Of the sixteen incumbent pairings in the senate eight are Republicans and four are DFLers, with the other four being intra-party pairings. There are eight open senate seats.
Senate Pairings
The new Senate District 05 places Sen. Tom Saxhaug (DFL-03, Grand Rapids) and freshman Sen. John Carlson (R-04, Bemidji) in the same district. There is no open seat in close proximity and Saxhaug has a clear advantage in his reelection campaign because he picks up Leech Lake Indian Reservations, which is a more Democratic leaning portion of Carlson’s district.
Both Saxhaug and Carlson are expected to seek reelection. In this instance, if this match-up occurs in November, we expect Saxhaug to prevail quite handily.
Senate District 08 puts freshman Sen. Gretchen Hoffman (R-10, Vergas) and second term member Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen (R-11, Alexandria) in the same district. The closest open seat is Senate District 09, but it is a long haul for either one. Ingebrigtsen has already stated his intention to run for reelection.
Senate District 09 (open seat) Former Sen. Dan Skogen (DFL-Hewitt) represented a portion of the Becker, Otter Tail, and Wadena portions old district. We understand he is considering running for either this seat or Senate District 08.
Senate District 12 (open seat) The western portion of the district, which includes the University of Minnesota Morris campus, is good for a DFL candidate, but the eastern portion in Stearns County heavily favors Republicans. Success in this district for either party will be dependent on which side turns out.
Senate District 17 has Sen. Joe Gimse (R-13, Willmar) and Sen. Gary Kubly (DFL-20, Granite Falls) in the same district, not actually because Kubly is retiring. 2012 will be a sequel election between Gimse and Larry Rice (DFL) who lost by 2971 votes in 2010.
Senate District 20 (open seat) contains the cities of Northfield and New Prague. We understand former Sen. Kevin Dahl (DFL) will be seeking this seat. He is a school teacher and driving instructor at Northfield High School.
Senate District 23 has third term Sen. Julie Rosen (R-24, Fairmount) and freshman Sen. Al DeKruif (R-25, Madison Lake) in the same district. DeKruif, as a resident of Madison Lake, in Blue Earth County is the closet to the open seat, but he would need to move into LeSeur County. The DFL index is showing consistent improvement in this area each election.
Senate District 30 (open seat) is a good Republic district and the DFL will field a candidate, but will not likely be a targeted seat.
Senate District 31 has both three term Sen. Michael Jungebauer (R-49, East Bethel) and freshman Sen. Michelle Benson (R-48, Ham Lake) placed in the same district. Neither Jungebauer nor Benson is likely to move, but the competitive advantage rests with Benson. The DFL candidate will likely be Peter Petrovich who lost to Jungebauer by 7,894.
Senate District 39 now contains two term Sen. Ray Vandeveer (R-52, Forest Lake) and freshman Sen. Ted Lille (R-56, Lake Elmo). Vandeveer is a former six term house member, who publically announced a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis prior to his last election.
Senate District 42 (open seat) includes the communities of Little Canada, New Brighton and Shoreview. This is a good DFL district and we understand Rep. Kate Knuth (DFL-50B, New Brighton) and Sen. Mary Jo McGuire (DFL-66, Falcon Heights) are both considering the prospect of seeking the seat since both have been redistricted in with fellow DFLers.
Senate District 50 (open seat) this district includes Richfield and Bloomington. Sen. Ken Kelash (DFL-63, Minneapolis) is seriously considering a move back to his hometown of Richfield to avoid a conflict with Sen. D. Scott Dibble (DFL-60, Minneapolis). The majority of this new district is from Dibble’s old district.
Senate District 53 (open seat) is a competitive DFL district in which we understand Rep. Nora Slawik (DFL-55B, Maplewood) is thinking about running in.
Senate District 66 is now the home to eight term Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) and recently elected Sen. Mary Jo McGuire (DFL-66, Falcon Heights). It is doubtful McGuire would challenge in this district because the bulk of it is in Marty’s home city of Roseville.
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