Obama Bounce in Minnesota?

The endorsement yesterday by U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D-RI1) along with the New York Times endorsement by Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg the previous day gave a resounding boost to U.S. Senator Barak Obama’s (D-IL) campaign.  The interpretation of Senator Kennedy’s support was a backlash to perceived race-baiting by former President Bill Clinton (D) in South Carolina.
 
Yesterday, U.S Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) received the endorsement of the American Association of Nurses, today the endorsement of Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA35) and later will receive the endorsement of the our state’s largest Hispanic newspaper, La Prensa.  The newspaper endorsement is interesting to note since the state’s three Hispanic members of the state legislature, Reps. Carlos Mariani (DFL-65B, St. Paul), Willie Dominguez (DFL-58B, Minneapolis) and Sen. Patricia Torrez Ray (DFL-62, Minneapolis) all are supporting Obama.
 
As the momentum for the Obama campaign builds nationally Minnesota may see a surge here in Minnesota.  In 2002, many our state endorsed our neighbor to the south U.S. Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) for President the most liberal candidate and Clinton, the more conservative candidate, was a distant 3rd.  In Democratic politics Minnesota is similar to that of Massachusetts where Ted Kennedy is considered the “Liberal Lion,” we have supported staunch liberals the likes of Hubert H. Humphrey II, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale and Paul Wellstone who were all progressives of their time.
 
The excitement an enthusiasm right now is with the Obama campaign, but as in 2004 the campaign with momentum was with former Governor Howard Dean (D) which faded to oblivion after the Iowa caucuses.  The key constituency in the Democratic nomination is the women’s vote.  If U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) continues to hemorrhage support for women Obama may gain some advantage as long as former U.S. Senator John Edwards (D) remains in the field.  If Edwards were to depart his constituency of blue collar men would be up for grabs and it is not clear who would capitalize on this group.  Statistically, the blue collar male vote has determined the outcome of Presidential elections for the last 70 years.
 
The movement of the date of the precinct caucus from the first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February has produced some rewards here in the Land O’ 10,000 Lakes.  It is clear Minnesota is not a major player in the game, but we are getting more attention than is usual.  The opening of campaign offices here in the state combined with direct mailing to past precinct caucus attendees, three for Obama last week and two from Clinton this week show there is a significantly more attention being played here.  With today’s visit by Edwards and the Saturday visit by Obama schedule at Williams Arena at the University of Minnesota, site of the ill fated Wellstone Memorial, our relevance has increased.  We know the Minnesota Clinton Campaign is trying to get either the candidate or the former President to combat the Obama visit.
 
This national campaign is having its largest impact on television because of the role of cable television.  The costs of ads on cable are far less expensive than on broadcast television.  The use of taglines at the end of the commercials intended to connect the ad to the state is a simple production add-on that makes people feel they are being spoken directly to.  Only the Obama campaign has run commercials here and that is because they are showing a willingness to compete in caucus states.
 
With these factors in play we expect Obama will fair well here in Minnesota on February 5th securing around 40% with Clinton coming in around 35% and Edwards trailing with less than 25%.
 
The resulting percentages will have an impact on the apportionment of the state’s delegation to the Democratic National Convention.