Today, Minnesota Farmers Union (MFU) President Doug Peterson will endorse Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) in her bid for Governor. Peterson served with Anderson Kelliher in the Minnesota House for four years during his term from 1991-2002. He retired after being elected as President of the MFU to be followed by his son Aaron.

Since his involvement with the MFU the organization has increased its presence at the Great-Minnesota-Get-Together by adding a coffee shop along with outdoor seating. At last year's fair Peterson encouraged Anderson Kelliher to enter the milking contest and as we understand it the former Dairy Princess had a good showing finishing third, but if she had a better milker, she could have been a contender, because her teat pulling technique was quite impressive. 

We knew there were discussions about changing items in the Proposed Rules to the DFL State Convention by a number of the gubernatorial campaigns, especially those seen as second tier. The DFL Rules Committee met on Sunday and after a number of failed attempts to modify the Proposed Drop Rule—established in the DFL Party Call—the group passed the following:

d. DROP OFF RULE: Candidates receiving less than 4% will be dropped after the first ballot.  On subsequent ballots, the drop off percent will be raised by 4% each ballot.  For the fourth ballot, and each subsequent ballot, if the drop rule would eliminate more than one candidate, only the candidate who received the lowest percentage of the vote on the prior ballot would be dropped.  In the event that application of the drop off rule would eliminate all but one candidate, then the two candidates who received the highest percent of the vote on the prior ballot shall be the remaining candidates.

Many amendments were proposed and failed on an 8-8 vote and neither co-Chair DNC member Rick Stafford or Jeanette Martimo was willing to break any ties. As we understand the composition of the committee reflected an even split between supporters of House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) on one side and the other campaigns on the other. The group was at an impasse until one on the Rybak side agreed to the preceding rule and once the logjam passed unanimous consent occurred.

The Drop Rule change will shift the dynamics of the convention and favor an additional candidate if their campaign can be successful in garnering support from all other lower level campaigns along the way. The rule changes should not affect one expected result, which is former DFL Minority Leader Mat Entenza will be the first candidate dropped from the ballot if his name is placed in nomination and remains for the first ballot.

As we played out the various scenarios surround the previously proposed Drop Rule the 15% threshold established for the 3^rd ballot appeared to be the largest hurdle for both the Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) and Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia) campaigns, especially if both could be dropped on the same ballot. The most significant change in the newly proposed Drop Rule is the allowance for only one candidate to be dropped from consideration on any one ballot. This affords opportunity for coalitions to be struck amongst the lower level candidates and for them to feel the process allows the opportunity for the convention delegates to bolster the candidacy of one of the underdogs. The possibility of a candidate without a large bank account or high name recognition invokes the specter of Paul Wellstone and is the epitome of what some feel breathes life into the Minnesota political process.

Now, with increments of 4% versus 5%, on the 3^rd ballot 12% will be the hurdle to surpass and the delegates supporting the lowest candidate at that mark will become the most popular people in room for a short period of time.

We have a copy of the entire report from the Rules Committee including the Proposed Drop Rule for you to review. We understand there is another conflict brewing over access to the floor of the convention by non-voting Distinguished Party Leaders, those who are not Automatic delegates to the convention. This issue is limited size of the facility and access for people onto the floor without a significant reason for their presence.

The view the entire report click here:

The reason the DFL House Majority joined the case suing Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) over the unallotment of the Minnesota Supplemental Aid-Special Diet program is mainly to do with separation of powers and use of executive authority. The system of Checks & Balances is a tenuous one especially when one side of the formula seeks to expand its authority at the expense of another.

In her current position, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) stands shoulder-to-shoulder with House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) and the rest of her DFL colleagues, but if this were 2011, and Kelliher were to be governor, she might find herself identifying more closely with Pawlenty. We wonder whether or not this perspective could exist in the back of her mind during discussions with the Executive Branch.

As we stated previously, we doubt any serious negotiations will take place between the governor’s office and the legislature until after the DFL endorsing convention on April 24th. Once the DFL has tapped its endorsed candidate, the campaign begins in earnest headed to the August Primary. If Kelliher is the endorsed candidate the possibilities of she being the Chief Executive become a greater possibility and hence the greater interest in the scope and limits on executive powers.

Most people in power want a few limitations on their exercise of power. They want to be able to act with their own discretion and authority. The strength of their character, insight and foresight being the tools at their disposal along with the trust of those governed.

We will watch with interest as negotiations first there will be the ruling by the other player in this game the Judicial Branch, which through its authority in the system of Checks & Balances will weigh in on whether Pawlenty exceeded his authority. If they agree, then the governor and legislature will be faced with an additional $2.7 billion to find cuts in the budget and Pawlenty is not likely to be all that helpful as he is headed out the door, especially after lost the argument.

A key component of Pawlenty’s supplemental budget calls for the legislature to approve his unallotments, which the legislature has balked on, the $2.7 billion for Supplemental Aid Special Diet program only being a portion of those cuts could create an impasse. We have speculated before the 2010 legislative session could end as the 2009 session did with the legislature going home and the governor unalloting.

This sets the stage for the incoming governor to face a significant budget crisis the first days of their administration, but if there is a DFL governor one thing is clear tax increases are not off the table and new revenue could offset this crisis quite handily.

Last weekend, there were two DFL Congressional endorsing conventions, which resulted in a bit of a surprise. Traditionally, in DFL circles it is believed a woman is the best candidate to run in the suburbs, but in the case of the 2nd and 3rd delegates decided against this conventional wisdom.

In the 2nd Congressional District, DFLers endorsed Dan Powers (DFL) over former Rep. Shelley Madore (DFL) in two ballots. Powers sought to contend against incumbent Congressman John Kline (R-MN2) in 2008, but deferred to Steve Saarvi (DFL). Powers will have a tough hill to climb against Kline mainly due to the conservative nature of the 2nd Congressional District.

In the 3rd the endorsement contest continued until the 6th ballot where past President of the Minnesota PTA, Jim Meffert (DFL) bested Clinic Psychologist Maureen Hackett (DFL). In his case, Meffert has a better possibility against first term incumbent Erik Paulsen (R-MN3) because of the more moderate nature of the 3rd CD. Paulsen as former State House Majority Leader has a long record to defend and his votes in Congress as member of the minority party are more obstructionist than they are compromising.

This race will be key to watch for understanding the future of Minnesota’s politics. With the census results pending, the potential of a loss of a Congressional seat and redistricting occurring in 2011 we will see a different map and some possible conflicts.

The 3rd CD has been trending toward Democrats and were it to solidify it would assure statewide DFL victories, if not then the political landscape will continue to be a contest.  

In each election, the value of an endorsement from another elected official, former elected official or organization is something sought by most candidates. Yesterday’s, arrival of former Alaska Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R) here in Minnesota for Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) is a prime example. Bachmann is able to capitalize on the personal appeal of Palin and in this case the value is mutual because Palin is able to benefit from Bachmann as well. Bachmann gets a high profile event—generating both local and national attention—along with a good fundraising opportunity, while Palin keeps the spotlight on her national tour, especially in the state of a potential Presidential rival Governor Tim Pawlenty (R).

When we were first deliberating writing this piece we knew it would be one met with both criticism and delight depending on where one stands in the DFL gubernatorial endorsement. In every election each candidates record and past political decisions are subject to immense scrutiny and the DFL endorsement for Governor is no exception.

Nationally, amongst Democrats there is no greater disappointment than the election of George W. Bush (R) in 2000, especially  because of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decisions  and in turn no greater joy than the election of Barack Obama (D) in 2008. The span of these eight years is the difference between pain and pleasure or pitfall and pinnacle to a Democrat and one candidate for Governor played a role in each race.

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) is credited as an early supporter of Obama and to that end deserves many accolades, but his critics would also like to point out he also endorsed Ralph Nader (Gr) in a Star Tribune Op/Ed July of 2000 entitled Why This Longtime Democrat is Voting for Nader. Many people feel because of the tightness of the race nationally Nader’s candidacy in state’s like Florida resulted in Bush’s election. Now, others argue, Nader included, if Al Gore (D) had won his home state of Tennessee the race would have had a different outcome. Here in Minnesota the election favored Gore by 3.5%, a margin far closer is actually the difference between Democrats and Republicans meant fewer election successes for Democrats in down ballot races.

To see the endorsement article click here:

Rybak is in a heated race for the DFL endorsement. He is seeking the DFL’s endorsement and willing to abide by it for the second time in his political career. In 2001, he challenged and blocked incumbent Mayor Sharon Sayles Belton (D) from receiving the required 60% in the Minneapolis DFL City Convention and then bested her in both the DFL Primary and the General Elections. In 2005, he accomplished the same by preventing Hennepin County Commissioner Peter McLaughlin (DFL), who led each ballot, from receiving the 60% vote required for endorsement, by again blocking and winning in the Primary and General Elections. And in 2009, he agreed to abide, but since he had only token opposition and virtually ran unopposed the change of heart did not come at much of a cost.

We expect Rybak will be one of the last two left standing in Duluth on April 24^th and we shall see if this issue resonates with delegates or not. In politics, a month is like a year and, and year is like a lifetime. With this being 2010, 2000 is a long way off.  Because Democrats now have a President they like it may not be an issue for many, but DFL Party activists do have a long memory and lacking a statewide Federal race this election the experienced delegates have a distinct advantage over a newbie and the campaign with the more seasoned supporters has an advantage over those with less experience especially in the latter ballots.

By our call Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) has assembled the team more experienced in DFL endorsement fights than has Rybak. Ultimately, being the frontrunner means the most to delegates and the bandwagon effect is more the rule than the exception. The stringent drop rule will make blocks of delegates available for movement early and the campaign who knows as much about their own delegates as they do their opponents delegates will have the far greater advantage.   

Checks & Balances is continuing in its efforts to connect with the delegates to the political conventions and ascertain their opinions in the endorsement contests. Earlier this week, we sent out a survey to delegates on the DFL side and are receiving responses to them as we speak. For those who may be anxious to see numbers, we are providing numbers in the following story, so scroll down.

The survey intends to gauge where the delegates are at coming into the 1^st ballot, where they are likely to go if their candidate is no longer in play, and whether or not people are willing to play shenanigans like supporting the perceived weakest candidate or vote no endorsement.  We must confess we lack the email addresses of all delegates, because quite frankly, not everyone has email we will be using other methods to connect with those delegates.

Just like the old adage there are very few Atheists in foxholes, we believe there will be very few Uncommitted delegates on the first ballot, but have been receiving very spirited comments from self-identified Uncommitted ReNew delegates. They are communicating the rhetoric of being willing to move as a block during the process. They universally say their future choices will be determined later and fail to commit to their own personal opinions. The size of the ReNew block we can see from the DFL Party is    

This means we will be writing ongoing stories about who has what strength and in what areas. We have a final tabulation from the DFL Party as to the distribution of named sub-caucuses and will be using that for our base. We have heard some criticism of our past reports because certain campaigns felt their numbers were inaccurately reflected, but as we stated previously we have given each campaign an opportunity to clearly state their numbers and in turn provide the names of their supporters to proves our numbers wrong.

Now it will be up to us to do the bulk of the work so if you know of any delegates encourage them to fill out our survey and send it to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it You can just copy these questions and return them with the answer in the text of an email.

Here are the questions asked:

1.       Do you support the proposed convention Drop Off Rule?

Taken directly from the DFL Call Section VIII Endorsements 23.

d.    DROP OFF RULE:  Candidates receiving less than 5% will be dropped from the first ballot. On subsequent ballots, the drop off percentage will be raised by 5% each ballot to a maximum of 25%. After the fifth ballot and each subsequent ballot, the lowest remaining candidates will be dropped so that no more than two candidates remain. In the event that application of the drop off rule would eliminate all but one candidate then the two candidates who received the highest percent of the vote on the prior ballot shall be the remaining candidates.

2.      If you do not support the proposed Drop Off Rule, what is your alternative?

3.       Do you support a specific candidate? If so are you working on their behalf of during the convention and if yes, in what capacity?

4.       On the first ballot whom do you intend to vote for?

5.       If your first choice is no longer a candidate for endorsement whom do you support as your second choice?

6.       If your first or second choices are no longer candidates for endorsement whom do you support as your third choice?

7.       Are you willing to vote for a candidate on any ballot whom you do not support or envision as a weaker candidate?

8.       Are you willing to vote for a candidate whom you do not support, but feel their continued candidacy will indirectly benefit your candidate?

9.       Are you willing to vote No Endorsement?

10.   Do you believe there will be an endorsement and if so whom do you think will receive it?

With an understanding of the fluidity of the DFL endorsing convention we are going to make continual updates to our spreadsheets and if you check back you will see new totals reflected in the information we provide. This means the old sheets will go away and new ones will replace them so if you want to keep track as things change make a copy.

Here are the DFL sub-caucuses.

To date the results show:

84.62% of the respondents support keeping the proposed Drop Rule and only 9.62% oppose it.

37.50% of the respondents support Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, 20.83% Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, 14.58% Rep. Paul Thissen, 8.33% Sen. John Marty, 4.17% Rep. Tom Rukavina, 2.08% former DFL Minority Leader Matt Entenza and 8.33% are uncommitted.

Some are willing to support a candidate other than their own choice in order to advantage their own candidate, but more than one stated they felt this to be Machiavellian. (Sorry, but Machiavelli had it dead on) The willingness to vote No endorsement is present, but not very broad and one response stated support for a primary process rather than the caucuses and stated their intention to vote for former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D).

We want to emphasize this is a survey and not a poll. The numbers are from a known universe of 1392 and as more information comes available the numbers will change. They also enhance our global numbers. We now know have all of the named sub-caucuses from the DFL Party and with those being drawn from the recognized 1200 delegate votes (half votes included) and the addition of the endorsements of the 192 Automatic delegates as the base figures here is what we know.

We show Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher leading with 191.5 votes or 13.76%, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak with 165.5 votes for 11.89%, Sen. John Marty with 72 votes or 5.71%, Rep. Paul Thissen with 58.5 votes or 4.2%, Rep. Tom Rukavina with 45 votes or 3.23%, former DFL Minority Leader Matt Entenza with 23 votes or 1.65% and Uncommitted with 686.5 votes or 49.32%.

TakeAction Minnesota claims they have 155 or 11.13% delegates identified as ReNew Minnesota out of  the 1392. In the hard counts we see 43 Uncommitted ReNew, 25 Rybak ReNew, 2 MAK ReNew and 2 Thissen ReNew. In our survey those identifying as Rybak supporters mainly come from either Rybak sub-caucuses or ReNew subcaucuses. We interpret this to means a large segment of the ReNew Minnesota block will support Rybak on the first ballot. This tends to reinforce our belief that Rybak supporters are largely known in some fashion and do not exist in large numbers amongst the Uncommitted delegates.

It appears at this time, when all factors are accounted for, Marty outpaces Thissen, but we think this will change as more delegates complete the survey. In our minds, Thissen has the greatest opportunity to grow in strength if every chip falls his way. If Thissen starts and remains at over 15% is likely he could gain some momentum from losses by Rukavina and Marty. Because Thissen like Marty has emphasized health care there is an affinity there on issues. You should think of Thissen opening to be like a slingshot where the fall-aways give his candidacy a boost.     

Based on our survey and DFL history we envision the Rules will remain as they are shown in the DFL Call, meaning the race to 10% is paramount for both the Marty and Rukavina campaigns. Marty delegates are as dedicated as are the ReNew supporters and mainly coming from Marty sub-caucuses, but we did find one person in a Rybak sub-caucus to be a Marty supporter with Rybak as the 2^nd choice. The exit of Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) should have been a benefit for Rukavina, but as we understand those delegates are dispersing broadly and no one is winning out significantly.

With Marty and Rukavina being the two Populists in the race their two sides could align on strictly economic grounds unless they were split on environmental issues. This means whichever one makes 10% the other will not.      

We also see a large block of Uncommitted as Education or as Labor and Education and since Education Minnesota has not yet endorsed this may be where the teacher vote is located. We understand there are around 180 or 12.93% teacher delegates out of the 1392. This block is slightly larger than the ReNew Minnesota block and may be more bifurcated.

Our intelligence into Education Minnesota’s endorsement process is the teachers were leaning toward Anderson Kelliher, but not overwhelmingly, hence the reason for no endorsement rather than a tepid one.  If the teachers walk in unison they could have an impact, but keeping the group together early may be slightly more complicated than it will be once a clear frontrunner is established and a practical/consensus candidate emerges.

You should expect regular updates as we learn more so stay tuned.

We could say the Poledex is flying off the shelves, but being in a virtual world that would be a misstatement. We have been generating a great deal of interest with our Poledex and want to make sure you get yours. If you have a BlackBerry and want to see how it operates there is a free two week trial, but only if you access the app through your device.

Try it today! http://appworld.blackberry.com/webstore/search/Poledex

Tomorrow, AFSCME Council 5 is holding a press conference announcing their campaign for economic fairness in taxation. In their “Tax the Rich” campaign they air ads during the opening game of the Twins v. the Red Sox on Saturday. The concept for taxing the state’s most affluent is not new and AFSCME Council 5 endorsed candidate for Governor former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D), known for his family fortune, has struck a similar theme.

Here is their release:

AFSCME Council 5 will give reporters a preview of “Tax the Rich” ads that will air on television and radio during Tax Week, April 12-18. 

“Our goal is to make revenue part of Minnesota’s budget solution,” says Eliot Seide, director of AFSCME Council 5.  “It’s the fairest way to save vital public services and invest in a better future for everyone.” 

The 30-second spot will air during the Twins home opener against the Boston Red Sox, and frequently during newscasts on WCCO-TV and WCCO-AM, and statewide on cable TV and 80 radio stations.  The ad will also bookend Gov. Pawlenty’s weekly radio show, “Good Morning Minnesota.”  Learn more at www.TaxTheRichest.com.

The political adage regarding bicameral government is: The Senate is the saucer in which the hot liquid cools. This means because of the longer length of term for its members—federally six years and here in at the state level four—senators are not as tied to the ferment of the day as are members of the house who all are elected every two years. One political reality is the state senate has never had a Republican majority since partisan election began in 1972. Today, Sen. Dennis Frederickson (R-21, New Ulm) announced his retirement after 30 years in state government.

Frederickson joins Sen. Steve Dille (R-18, Dassel) another moderate and Sen. Pat Pariseau (R-36, Farmington) as three members of 21 in the Senate Republican Caucus who will not stand for reelection. The departure of the moderates speaks well for the ability of the Senate Republican Caucus to hone its message and concentration of the core principals which define the current Republican agenda. Since the caucus Communications Director Michael Brodkorb is also the party’s Deputy Chair the connection between the Republican Minority and the State Party is intact, but this is also the argument against current trends in Republican politics. This seems to be the arguments of both Sen. Debbie Johnson (R-49, Ham Lake) who lost the party endorsement for reelection to Michelle Benson (R), Johnson has to announce whether she will run in the August Primary and Sen. Paul Koering (R-12, Fort Ripley) who sidestepped his endorsing convention where it was expected he would lose handily to former Rep. Paul Gazelka (R) and is heading to the Primary.

The perception of a shrinking tent made up of cookie cutter members who all sing from the same music sheet means one Republican in not better or worse than any other. This lack of individualism is more akin to a movie like Invasion of the Body Snatchers or the Stepford Wives than it is a robust political party. The outliers who fail to dogmatically follow the party line may be spark needed to generate interest outside of the party faithful, but one thing is clear it is far easier to manage people who all are headed at the same pace in the same direction.

We argue this is the perfect prescription for a minority party and not the remedy to produce a majority party.