Memorial Day is not just another three-day weekend; its purpose is to commemorate those who have given their lives in service to our country. On Monday, stop and take a moment to honor those who have made the ultimate sacrifice in their service to the United States of America.

Those who are gone today, are the reason you enjoy the freedoms you likely take for granted.

This Memorial Day Weekend, people can put their money where their mouths are by supporting a cause on Facebook.  If you join the fan page for Call of Duty Endowment (CODE) the organization will donate $1 for each new fan on its Facebook page to a group focused on employment for returning veterans called Hire Heroes USA.

Hire Heroes USA, provides career placement assistance to all returning service men and women, and focuses on transition assistance to Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom veterans, especially those who are injured or disabled.

To become a fan of CODE, visit http://www.facebook.com/pages/Call-Of-Duty-Endowment/199346440490?ref=search&sid=P6OXx5uWA1U28qO93SBnkg.2140421957..1  

We understand former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) will be announcing Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as his running mate tomorrow. This may be he reason he is announcing his choice in tomorrow in Duluth. This means the total of legislative retirements expands to twenty-three. Solon was first elected to the Senate in a Special Election in 2002 after the death of her husband Sam Solon. The pick will help Dayton in Duluth and some parts of St. Louis County, which is an area we anticipate he would already fare well in.

As anyone who followed DFL electoral politics knows primary elections are won mainly through a accumulation of votes from the 4th, 5th and 8th Congressional Districts. If Dayton sought support from the 8th Congressional District he may need assistance shoring up support there. 

Solon was one of the few state legislators to endorse Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D) prior to the DFL State Convention. 

DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) is announcing her selection for Lt. Governor today at 1:00 pm in St. Paul. Our speculation is she is looking to the fall election regarding this selection. We have confirmed her pick is former State Finance Commissioner John Gunyou, someone with independent credentials as well as a strong relationship with former Governor Arne Carlson (R). He is the current city manager for the city of Minnetonka and may appeal to western Hennepin County voters. The largest bloc of DFL voters are in Hennepin County and timing of the Primary in the 2^nd week of August will likely mean a lower turnout and hence the need to shore up one’s base. Gunyou is an affable, competent person, now with experience on the impact of cuts to city governments in a time of stressed economics.

During the DFL State Convention there was a lot of discussion about whom the various candidates should pick for running mates if at all. Many were hoping for a coalition ticket to emerge. Only Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) made an early choice of Sen. Patricia Torres Ray (DFL-62, Minneapolis). Former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza is making his announcement on Twitter and since there are only 949 followers, when last we checked, many of whom are in the media his message will reach the desired audience and make a few people feel special. No word on when former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) will announce.

A look at the eight DFL and fourteen Republican seats creates an interesting picture going into the November elections. By our analysis, three House seats and one senate seat are in rock solid DFL districts, two are in strong DFL leaning districts and the other three are in play and could switch sides. Similarly, in the Republican column, two house seats are in bedrock Republican districts and one senate seat is likewise disposed, with two house seats and three senate seats leaning strongly toward Republicans. Meaning there are four house seats and one senate seat in play.

The safe DFL seats are: 15A, 60A, 65A and 67. The safe Republican seats are: 19B, 34A and 18.

Now if we believe in following conventional wisdom and also believe Republicans— as the party out of power—are well positioned to capitalize on the dissatisfaction brewing in the electorate all toss-up elections should result in Republican wins. Problem is elections rarely work out that way. If we look at the outgoing legislators they show how an individual can buck the trend of a specific district. We will compare the results of legislative races in 2008 to the Presidential outcome between Barak Obama (D) and John McCain (R) and the races in 2006 to the U.S. Senate election between Amy Klobuchar (D) and Mark Kennedy (R).   

Reps. Otremba and Kalin are two examples. Both have election results showing their successes in spite of other partisan elections in their areas. District 11B has been held by Otremba since her husband’s death in 1997. The district is seen as very conservative and as a pro-life DFLer she has consistently outperformed all other Democratic candidates. In 2008, Otremba received a 9.50% higher vote total than Obama and 9.38% more than did Klobuchar in 2006.This seat will be hard for the DFL to maintain unless a candidate similar in profile to Otremba emerges.         

In District 17B, Kalin has sought office on three occasions being elected on the second attempt and then reelected at a higher percentage than Democratic candidates, who prevailed statewide, but not in his district. Kalin secured a 9.28% higher percentage than Obama and a 6.27% advantage over Klobuchar in 2006. These are the only two retirees who track significantly better than other candidates up the ballot.

In the other seats the legislative retirees and statewide candidates trend in the same direction, but numbers differ somewhat creating possible openings. In district 14B, Severson, twice elected had margins of 54.95% in 2008 and 53.94% in 2006 and performed better than McCain by .08% and Kennedy by 6.83% in 2006. This seat could move into the DFL column with a conservative DFL candidate, but will likely stay put.

In district 15, the retirement of Clark—challenger to Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN6)— will not likely have an impact if the students from St. Cloud State University (STSU) continue to influence elections by voting with the Democrats. This trend could change because of Republican endorsed house candidate for 15A King Banian is an economics professor at STSU. The district voted strongly for Obama in 2008 and lacking a state senate election that year the best we can ascertain is the 15A side favored Haws well and helped balance out the district for Clark in 2006, where she received 56.30% compared to Klobuchar with 53.45%. The DFL endorsed candidate Bruce Hentges is a current school board member and his ties to education should assist in his election. Basically, we think so goes house seat 15A so goes senate seat 15.

In district 17A, Eastland has survived close elections. He won with 53.18% in 2008 when McCain received 56.29% and in 2006 he secured 50.51% while Kennedy only had 44.58%. This could change hands with the right DFL candidate, but no DFLer has filed for the seat. Lacking a solid candidate on the DFL side Republican win.

In house district 21A and senate district 21 a similar situation exists as does in districts 15A and 15. The existence of Southwest State University (SWSU) and its voting pattern determines the representation in that area. Seifert as an administrator at SWSU helped keep those districts in the Republican column, but DFL candidates with similar ties could do the same in the other direction. Ramona Larson is the DFL endorsed candidate in 21A and Gary Dahms the DFL endorsed candidate for senate district 21 is the only person filed for the seat.

In house district 22A, Magnus has retired to run for the senate seat 22 vacated by Vickerman. Magnus won in 2008 with a majority of 55.44% while McCain on received 51.68%. In 2006, Magnus scored 55.77% while Kennedy only had 48.07%. In the other half of the district Rep. Rod Hamilton (R-22B, Mountain Lake) carried closer margin in 2006winning with 51.51% and expanding that significantly after voting to override Governor Tim Pawlenty’s (R) veto of the Transportation Bill to 60.37% over the same candidate he defeated in 2006. This should be a good opportunity for Magnus to join the senate and keep the house seat in Republican hands.

In house district 25A, Brod bested McCain by 6.53% and Kennedy by 16.02%. The seat has trends Republican and will likely remain as such.             

In senate district 28, Murphy beat now Rep. Steve Drazkowski (R-28B, Wabasha) with 54.26% his margin surpasses the scored 49.57% by Obama in 2008 and is slightly lower than Klobuchar’s 55.17% edge in 2006.

In house district 29A, we see a potential pick-up for the DFL. Many of the legislative seats in the 1^st Congressional District have been moving toward the DFL. Demmer vacated his seat to run against Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN1). In the 2008 election Demmer received 56.57% of the vote while McCain had on 51.49%. In 2006, Kennedy lost with 44.77%.

In house district 57A, Bigham departs a good DFL district if this is a normal election year, but the questions are what is normal and is this a normal election year? Obama carried the district with 56.57% in 2008 and Klobuchar the same in 2006 with 61.98%. Granted candidates make a difference, but all things being equal DFL endorsed candidate Jen Peterson should beat the Republican endorsed candidate Kurt Perkins.

All and all we will not be surprised if the DFL House Majority drops 6-10 seats, but doubt the majority will change hands to the Republicans. In the Senate, the gulf is far too wide and they will remain around 1/3 of the body.

Let us start out with this statement: All polls are suspect. In the age of cell phones and the Internet, we doubt the quality of any statistical sample, in spite of its methodology. That being said we are not surprised at the result.

Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) leads with 38%, DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher is in 2^nd with 28%, former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza trails with 6% with 28% undecided. There is a high margin of error at 5.8%, but that is due to the smaller sample size.

This poll does show something we already assume and that is has nearly universal name recognition. Yes, Dayton leads the pack, but there is still a 12-point stretch away from a simple majority. The poll finds strong support amongst seniors, which also to be expected, but one surprise is the soft support for Kelliher from women.

This reinforces a thought we have heard voiced frequently from other women over the years, which is women are hardest on women candidates. Males candidates can have their flaws but women over emphasize flaws in female candidates to the extreme.  Kelliher’s lack of a adequate resolution to the budget crisis and the perception of being outmaneuvered by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) this session and in the last session may have affected the outcome.

We spoke with the Independence Party endorsed candidate Tom Horner and gained some insight into his election strategy. He is trying to duplicate the Jesse Ventura election of 1998 and secure a plurality victory. His conclusion on the 1998 election is Attorney General Hubert “Skip” Humphrey III failed to perform to the level of his base in the election and his weakness benefited Ventura who received 37% of the vote.

Similarly, in this election Horner seeks to demonize Republican endorsee Tom Emmer as far too extreme for average Minnesotan’s. Horner intends to stake his tent in the middle ground and attempt to appeal to Independent and moderate Republican voters. The probability of Horner’s success is something we doubt since he lacks the star power of Ventura, but if he is able to secure votes in the 15 to 20% range he will likely help the DFL candidate onto victory.

This could be the first election where an Independent candidate helps rather than harms the DFL candidate.    

Minnesota has an interesting reality and that is every 12 years there is no statewide federal race. The highest statewide election is that for Governor. The last time this occurred Jesse Ventura (RP) was elected and our state began dramatic changes that continue today.

The lack of a high profile election for President or the U.S. Senate is both a boon and a bane. Turnout is lower than during the other election years, except in 1998, there was a Constitutional Amendment for the Right to Hunt and Fish, which drove a new portion of the electorate to the polls. This also resulted in a Republican Majority in the state house.  

In our opinion gubernatorial elections are far more significant to Minnesota’s future than is a U.S. Senate election, but for some reason these contest are not seen as, as sexy. The DFL has not held the governor’s office since 1990 and the eight years of Governor Arne Carlson (R) followed by four of Ventura and eight of Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) had had significant effects on tax policy, endowments from the Tobacco Settlement and the general outlook of our state.

Minnesota seems to be a far less nicer place. People are far coarser, less trusting and more hard hearted toward the fellow Minnesota’s . Hopefully, this election can change this outlook. It is time for some optimism and vision.

Last week, we predicted Associate Justice Lori Skjerven Gildea would be Tim Pawlenty’s (R) pick to replace retiring Chief Judge Governor Erik Magnuson. Gildea authored the three member descent in the 4-3 ruling against Pawlenty’s unallotment of the Special Diet Program. She was discussed earlier this wek as one of the three finalist all of whom had sided the same way. Her selection makes Gildea the second female Chief Justice in state history.

Her selection also created availability for Pawlenty to select another Associate Justice. His selection is Mark Stras a University of Minnesota law professor, who people are saying submitted a Pawlenty supporting Amicus Curiae on the unallotment case. As predicted a future vote on matters of this type will likely favor Pawlenty 4-3.

We called for an independent judiciary last week and are glad others with scholarly minds have done the same. Here is a release on the issue from Rep. Ryan Winkler (DFL-44A, St. Louis Park).

THE PAWLENTY PAYOFF

“What we’re looking at here is the Pawlenty Payoff. Pawlenty already tried appointing his political pals to serve on Minnesota’s high court, but after last week’s unallotment decision, he’s going the extra mile to stack the court.

“Promoting Justice Gildea was just a big thank you for the loyal dissent she wrote last week defending Governor Pawlenty’s illegal unallotments. The Governor wants another political ally running the court, rather than an impartial legal mind focused on the facts.

“Pawlenty’s appointment of Mr. Stras is even worse. Mr. Stras is a right-wing ideologue who wrote a radical amicus brief supporting the Governor’s illegal unallotments.

“Unfortunately, Mr. Stras’s brief specifically opposed the position of cities in the unallotment case, even as the firm with which he was associated represented those same cities in public finance matters. Hopefully the Supreme Court’s orientation program includes a lesson in basic ethics.

“We hear a lot from the Governor and Republicans in the legislature complaining about activist judges. The hypocrisy in today’s Supreme Court appointments is nauseating, but fortunately both justices are up for election in 2012, and Minnesotans will have a chance to evaluate their performance.”   

The quest for an overall budget solution is not required during this legislative session. The biennium ends on June 30, 2011, not June 30, 2010. The reason legislators are trying to tackle the problem in the first year of the biennium is because there is a longer time to enact the changes and wean the impact out over the course of time.

The Minnesota State Constitution also for the state to operate in the red only during the a specific budgetary period, but not carry over a negative balance in a succeeding year.  Article XI Sec. 6 states:

Sec. 6. CERTIFICATES OF INDEBTEDNESS. As authorized by law certificates of indebtedness may be issued during a biennium, commencing on July 1 in each odd-numbered year and ending on and including June 30 in the next odd-numbered year, in anticipation of the collection of taxes levied for and other revenues appropriated to any fund of the state for expenditure during that biennium.

No certificates shall be issued in an amount which with interest thereon to maturity, added to the then outstanding certificates against a fund and interest thereon to maturity, will exceed the then unexpended balance of all money which will be credited to that fund during the biennium under existing laws. The maturities of certificates may be extended by refunding to a date not later than December l of the first full calendar year following the biennium in which the certificates were issued. If money on hand in any fund is not sufficient to pay all non-refunding certificates of indebtedness issued on a fund during any biennium and all certificates refunding the same, plus interest thereon, which are outstanding on December 1 immediately following the close of the biennium, the state auditor shall levy upon all taxable property in the state a tax collectible in the ensuing year sufficient to pay the same on or before December 1 of the ensuing year with interest to the date or dates of payment.

We are skeptical this legislative session will result in a compromise. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) will not accept any form of tax increase and the ability of the House to obtain four votes from the Republicans is unlikely.

During his press conference on his new Supreme Court selections, Pawlenty discussed where negotiations stand and what his expectations are. As he talked about the veto of the recent Health and Human Services budget an potential compromise on that issue he discussed the HHS bill in light of an overall budget solution.

Pawlenty seeks a ratification of the unallotments he implemented last year, making them permanent as well as enactment of the school funding shifts from 90/10 to 70/30. He also discussed the status of the Pension Bill saying, “It’s on my desk and I am going to hold it for a few days until I know where things are going.” (re: global budget discussions)

The DFL legislative majorities want to make sure people think they are working hard to solve the budget crisis, but at the same time want to protect specific constituency groups. The ability to get out of this session without a solution can project the problem into the future and in the future there will be another person in the governor’s office. DFLer’s hope it will be a Democrat, but that assurance is not guaranteed.