If the DFL candidates keep their eyes on the prize they will focus on the record of Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) and the Republican approach to government rather than trying to hamstring their DFL opponents they will do their cause a service. It is far too opportunistic to have a family squabble which displays ones dirty laundry for the neighborhood to see while claiming to have the state’s interests at the fore.  

As we can see from Minneapolis Mayor R.T. (Raymond Thomas) Rybak (DFL) response to last night’s Precinct Caucuses he has trained his sights on former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D). He surprisingly supplanted House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) as the perceived frontrunner. We are awaiting the results by precinct in Senate District 60 to see who won the battle for home turf.

We attended Precinct 7-3 and were interested to see in the heart of Kelliher’s legislative district people sporting sticker’s for one of her potential replacements, Marion Greene and a sticker for Rybak. We inquired why the public support and learned the delegate was an ardent supporter of Kelliher’s previously, but had lost faith after the last legislative session in her ability to lead in finding a viable solution to the morass in state government. The person highlighted Rybak tension with things he faces in his role and found him to be more of a leader. The person also discussed he increase in profile post the I-35 disaster and his appeal to voters statewide and specifically in the suburbs.

One thing we witnessed was the creation of “under votes” in the straw poll. Oh, the horrors of Florida 2000 come to mind, but in this case as occurred in SD60 7-3, where 3 people voted for Dayton those votes were deemed to be spoiled ballots an went un reported and are not reflected in the overall totals. So we are willing to argue a similar situation as we did before the evening started, that Dayton absence would be felt and we think both Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) and Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia). Some can argue the nearly 15% of uncommitted could be seen as Dayton votes, but if these numbers are factored together it is likely Dayton would have been one of the three if not the top vote getter.     

In addition to Senate District 60, we want to see who won the battle in the Mill City. Did the Mayor prevail over the Speaker citywide? Again once the numbers are truly known we can make a better determination. What is clear is Rep. Paul Thissen (DFL-63A, Minneapolis) did not fair well. He may have the misfortune of being many people’s second choice, but this is not a beauty contest and the consolation prize is not Miss Congeniality.  

Both Rybak and Kelliher did perform throughout the state, granted their domestic support helped to gain them votes in the overall but since this is a battle of attrition and a fight for delegates a vote in the Straw Poll in Minneapolis has less weight than does a vote elsewhere. Meaning a vote in Senate District 60 was an accumulation of over 1400 people which will result in a Senate District convention producing 29 state delegates. If we were to look at another location such as Senate District 05 on the Iron Range it is not an apples to apples comparison. With the number of votes cast being around 500 and the number of state delegates emerging in this area—another rich DFL stronghold—with 23 state delegates coming from this area  proportionately the SD60 caucus attendees  produce 1 state delegate at a 49/1 ratio while a SD05 caucus attendees does so at a 22/1basis.

The straw poll was largely a beauty contest and since it is not binding only serves to provide a snapshot of general candidate support, which is relevant in a Primary or General Election but far less in a delegate contest. The only candidate to win any actual delegates to the DFL State Convention was Rukavina, who picked up three and maybe more from Grant County.

We are also interested in seeing how Marty faired in Senate District 54, how Rukavina did on the Iron Range and in Duluth, former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza did in Senate District 64 and former Senator Steve Kelley did in his old district Senate District 44. We heard Kelley came in third. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how both Marty and Entenza performed in Ramsey County.

We noted the lack of a true Greater Minnesota candidate other than those from the Iron Range and think all of these candidates will be set to make an appeal to potential delegates in the 1^st, 2^nd and 7^th Congressional Districts. We doubt either Rybak or Anderson Kelliher is willing to concede the 8^th Congressional District to Rukavina. So we will be looking to what role Duluth Mayor Don Ness (D) plays in the area and will note the silence of House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm).

We will also expect one of the candidates to operate in what we feel is an unadvisable strategy which is picking a running mate prior to the DFL State Convention. Since there is nothing to force these candidates from the race other than a lack of funding anyone can continue unrestricted into April. The poor performers can remain and become after thoughts just by continuing to participate. We encourage anyone hosting a debate or forum to prove people a courtesy and restrict the participants to those who received at least 7% of the vote. Granted this is an arbitrary number, but one must draw the line somewhere.

Now as things move forward we know people will be angling to cultivate an advantage for themselves which with help to distinguish their candidacy from their opponents. As potential delegates weigh the pros and cons or pluses and minuses for the field the result of the straw poll should remain a part of the calculus. In determining who is best to endorse we believe a path to the endorsement should be factored in. If a candidate is in single digits they we need to make a fairly obtuse argument as to how they can succeed.

Now as we view the field we see the following. The two leading candidates will gain support by virtue of their perceived positions. People who do not like Rybak will gravitate to Anderson Kelliher and vice a versa. Those with a distain for Minneapolis will look elsewhere. We see a few natural alliances.

We see few natural alliances for Marty since; he was a miserable candidate for Governor in 1994, has hosed up the campaign finance system to the point where a DFLer and not been elected as the Chief Executive in 30 years and is perceived and unrealistic and too idealistic in his approach to government. The only possible alliance would be similar to the one which occurred in 1994, which is to pick him as the worst possible choice for endorsement thereby advantaging his primary opponents. This means Dayton, Entenza and Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaetner (D) might be willing to send delegates his way, but it is unlikely they will control many to begin with.

 If the Rangers coalesce, with the choice being Rukavina and Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) checks his ego he could cultivate support for Ruk from the Building Trades. This could result in money, but again there is little which will force Bakk to do anything other than sit on his hands. If Bakk were to be the bigger man he could help solidify the non-Duluth parts of the Iron Range and allow Rukavina to build a base there.

Additionally, we see a natural ally for Thissen in Kelley. Timing and history have not treated Kelley well and it may be time for him to recognize it. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but not everyone is cut out for primetime and acknowledgement of this reality is nigh. Even if Kelley were to throw his support the numbers being as small as they are it would only have a symbolic effect, but in endorsement politics increments are monumental and perception is reality so momentum is invaluable.

These scenarios are only ones which enable a candidate to leapfrog into third place. Since each Senate District and County Unit convention has a cache of state delegates we will see who develops forward momentum. With this compressed schedule there will be an opportunity for epic peak and debilitating trenches at every turn. A candidate may be up one day to be followed by a dramatic turn of events. Some events will be manufactured and others will naturally occur, but again this process will be event driven.

We will be watching to see how labor unions who have endorsed Dayton operate during the DFL State Convention. Will the support the “weakest” candidate, vote “no endorsement” and jump around from candidate to candidate? Will Education Minnesota be willing to weigh in before the convention and allow EDMN President Tom Dooher to play a role as kingmaker? We hear EDMN just like AFSCME Council 5 was set to endorse St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman (D) until he burst that bubble. There are numerous factors to consider and we will be right there scrutinizing each decision.

As candidates seek to broaden their appeal by the selection of a running mate and we see a few match-ups worth noting this early in the process. We think Rybak in his need to broaden his appeal xrequires a geographic balance and see both Rukavina and Ness as viable selections. Picking Ness would be a direct slap at AFSCME Council 5 and could bode well in a General Election and less so in the Primary. In her quest to do the same, Anderson Kelliher could pick a former colleague, current head of the Minnesota Farmers Union Doug Peterson, which shores up her farm cred in spite of being the Milk Princess. Rukavina might do well asking Coleman to join his ticket this could divide the AFSCME vote and assist in the endorsement. Coleman was many people’s choice for a Mayor to enter the fray, but he declined and it should be noted many Governors were first Lt. Governors.   

The straw poll at precinct caucuses brought some clarity for Republicans last night.  As expected, former Republican House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert (R-20A, Marshall) bested Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano).  Many thought the margin would be wider, but at the end of the day, Seifert’s organization and huge financial advantage beat back the challenge from Emmer by slightly better than 10 points.  One of the surprises of the night was the weak showing by Sen. David Hann (R-42, Eden Prairie), who registered just over five percent points statewide.  It appears that Hann will continue in the race for now, but this begs the question what is Hann’s path to the endorsement? 

Some in GOP circles believe that the Seifert/Emmer battle will turn nasty and personal very quickly.  If that’s the case, Hann may believe he can emerge as the adult in the room.  Hann is quite intelligent, well-respected by leaders in the GOP and DFL, and has shown he can win in a district that is trending more Democratic in recent years.  However, it will likely be very difficult for Hann to raise significant money after his distant third place showing in the straw poll. 

Emmer’s campaign will also face a challenge in raising money unless he is able to convince potential donors he is a viable alternative to Seifert and can win in November.  While Emmer’s campaign downplayed expectations going into the caucuses, their hope was to finish close to Seifert and whether 10 points is close is debatable.  Emmer’s campaign entered 2010 with only $19,000 cash on hand (compared to over $133,000 for Seifert) and also carried $6,000 in debt. 

With the expenses leading up to the straw poll, it is likely that Emmer’s campaign treasury is virtually depleted though, he did send out a fundraising letter days before caucuses we wonder if those letters will not be returned with checks in the envelop. Seifert’s campaign now faces the challenge of claiming the mantle as the clear frontrunner.  Many have doubted Seifert’s campaign since its inception–however, he has over-performed in each of the three trial tests–first place at the October ’09 straw poll, best fundraising numbers of any GOP candidate by a huge margin, and last night’s victory.  Seifert’s win last night may convince a number of donors to come off the sidelines and put their money on him. 

As the battle intensifies between Seifert and Emmer, a few themes have become to emerge.  Emmer’s campaign was pushing theme that he is “Mr. Conservative.”  Meanwhile those supporting Seifert point to a number of votes that are inconsistent with the contention that Emmer is a more pure conservative.   A direct mail piece from Seifert made the argument that Emmer sided with DFL candidates for governor (Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, and Tom Rukavina) and did not support an amendment to the Twins stadium bill, which would have forced a referendum for the sales tax increase on Hennepin County residents.  In addition, he has been an opponent of tort reform (voted against the “cheeseburger bill” which would have banned frivolous lawsuits by those suing fast food restaurants for being obese). 

While Seifert and Emmer will attack each other’s legislative records, both appear to be sufficiently conservative and acceptable to the large majority of Republican activists.  Now the focus of the campaign will shift to discerning which candidate has the metal and the temperament for the office. As is apt, this is where the comparison and the contrasting occurs.  So, the race may come down to personality and leadership style.  Emmer’s backers will point to his background as a tough hockey player who will run through walls to get things done.  Seifert will continue to remind activists that he has defeated Emmer twice for the Minority Leader position (once in 2007, when Emmer finished third to Seifert and now Congressman Erik Paulsen and again in 2009, when Seifert defeated Emmer for re-election to the post). Emmer’s conduct after losing to Seifert in the 2009 race for Minority Leader continues to be an issue in the race. 

It is clear that Emmer has a strong (some say intense) personal dislike for Seifert.  Emmer was so angry after losing to Seifert in 2009, he did not vote for Seifert for Speaker at the start of the 2009 session.  This was an unprecedented move that disappointed many of Emmer’s strongest supporters in the GOP Caucus.  During session, Emmer essentially boycotted Republican Caucus strategy meetings – only attending a couple meetings out of nearly fifty over the course of the session.  Many activists don’t like the ‘take your toys and go home’ attitude that Emmer displayed. 

As the BPOU conventions are held (most are in the last week of February and first week of March), it will be interesting to see if there are any “game changers” from the Seifert or Emmer campaigns.  There has been some discussion on running mates – an early announcement might provide a shot in the arm for either campaign.  While Rep. Laura Brod (R-25A, New Prague) pulled her name from consideration by Seifert, Brod is thought to be a likely running mate for Emmer.  However, Brod’s conservative credentials aren’t impeccable, especially on the stadium issue when she was a co-sponsor of the Twins stadium bill.  Emmer may also look at State Rep. Paul Kohls (R-34A, Victoria), who dropped out of the Governor’s race after gaining little traction. 

Seifert will likely pick a woman from the suburbs (as a sidenote:  it was surprising to see Seifert win by sizable margins in Olmsted county, Plymouth, Eagan, Woodbury, Burnsville and other suburbs – an area where many thought Seifert would struggle). While Emmer still has a path to the endorsement, it is much narrower after last night’s straw poll. 

His campaign team has few veteran operatives and many question whether they can successfully execute a statewide plan for endorsement.  Seifert’s path to the endorsement is much clearer – though he’ll have to avoid a number of pitfalls along the way now that he is the clear frontrunner on the GOP side. 

As is the case on the DFL side, the compressed window affords great positive swings and significant downward ones. Different factors are in play, but we think this side may result in a more bloody battle than will be seen in the DFL. 

Dear  

I want to remind you that my name will not appear on the DFL "straw ballot" at Tuesday's precinct caucuses.  My name will be on the DFL primary ballot later this year.  That is when I am requesting your support!

My very best,

Mark   

The question we have is where will Rukavina, former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL), Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook), Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) and former Sen. Steve Kelley fall. With three candidates, Anderson Kelliher, Rybak and Thissen all being Minneapolitans, in fact Southwest Minneapolitans it will be interesting how the 5th Congressional District shakes out. We believe Anderson Kelliher needs to come in first to meet expectations. We will be watching how Entenza and Marty do in the 4th Congressional to determine the size of their bases. If Rukavina outperforms Entenza or vice versa what does that mean?       

Snowfall may be an adverse element in Greater Minnesota this evening, which will reduce turnout and are trying to determine who it favors. This is key factor in determining which candidate actually has a statewide base. We feel the candidate who fairs best in the 1st, 2nd and 7th Congressional Districts will show this fact in spite of those areas not being essential to a DFL victory in November.

Since there are only two candidates from Greater Minnesota and both are Iron Rangers. Low Precinct Caucus attendance will have an impact on the number of votes cast statewide, but since the bulk of DFL delegates emanate from the 4th, 5th and 8th Congressional Districts we expect tonight’s numbers will reflect this assumption. We are hearing Rukavina is gaining local momentum over Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook), but the question is will this extend to other areas of the state or will Rukavina remain a regional candidate.  Some are speculating whether Rukavina is making a show for consideration as a running-mate to one of the metropolitan candidates. His firebrand, populist rhetoric plays a good foil against any Republican candidate.We also hear Entenza has been making a push in Great Minnesota and with Anderson Kelliher emphasizing her reign as the Milk Princess and time on the farm she may wrestle away votes. This area was ripe for but since he is a non-participant we wonder if Rukavina can benefit.   

The adverse weather will not likely have much impact on the urban or suburban candidates. We expect the result for former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL), Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis), Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) or Rep. Paul Thissen (DFL-63A, Minneapolis) will be an accurate reflection of their respective campaigns.   We note, Anderson Kelliher, Rybak and Thissen all received a favorable nod from Take Action Minnesota on January 31st at its annual meeting with coming in a close fourth. Some have criticized the result due to a heavier influence by the metropolitan communities, but the “progressive” community has weighed in. We expect Marty’s result tonight to be exemplified by the more radical fringe elements of the DFL Party and because these people are the most passionate in their beliefs we expect advancement in higher numbers than will be show in the straw poll.Now we just have to wait for the actual results and start speculating all over again.

We believe Uncommitted will not be a big number since it is a secret ballot and people are able to cast their vote without any undue impact.

We will be disaggregating the numbers of tonight’s Republican Straw poll trying to figure out who won the day and who is in the strongest position to secure the party’s endorsement. We conclude turnout over 20,000 will be considered high.  Many think the race is down to three candidates – Rep. Marty Siefert (R-21A, Marshall, Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano), and Sen. David Hann (R-42, Eden Prairie). Republican caucus attendees will be able to write in an alternative choice to the field of candidates, but no one seems to be a natural choice.

Seifert is expected to perform well in Greater Minnesota and the straw poll is mainly an expectations game. Siefert is banking on support from Greater Minnesota and even if the raw vote in those communities is down he will likely still prevail in those communities because the delegates selected to advance are his supporters. Meaning Siefert’s support out of the 1st, 7th and 8th Congressional Districts even if low is disproportionate with his support moving forward. The magic number is 40% meaning if totals from these three Congressional Districts fall below 40% then turnout are down since 1, 7 and 8 account for 39% of the GOP State delegates.  

In turn, Emmer should do well in CD 6, as his home area (Wright County), which contains one of the largest blocks of delegates to the State Convention and Emmer’s BPOU is the largest in the state.  CD’s 4 (St Paul and suburbs) and CD 5 (Minneapolis and suburbs) have a small GOP presence and few delegates to the State Convention, though there is a larger contingent of Ron Paul/libertarian voters in these urban areas.  Hann should do well in parts of CD 3, as his home district (Eden Prairie) has a large block of delegates to the State Convention.  It appears that the battleground will be CD 2 (south metro) and parts of CD 3 (western suburbs). 

Many question how long Hann will remain in the race; we think he stays until the end since there is nothing to push him aside.   If he receives more than 10% of the vote, he will likely continue the campaign to watch for a slip-up from either Seifert or Emmer.  At some point, Hann may be able to play kingmaker and throw his support to either candidate.

There are questions about fundraising for both Hann and Emmer.  Hann entered the year with only $8,000 cash on hand (after raising just under $40,000 in 2009).  While Emmer raised $114,852 in 2009, this leads many to believe that Emmer’s campaign may have very little cash left.  The recent endorsements by former opponent Rep. Laura Brod (R-25A, New Prague) and former U.S. Senator Rod Grams have created an impression Emmer has momentum, but he will need a strong showing (close second place) to receive the jolt in the arm to raise additional money.

Most predict Seifert will prevail in the straw poll because of his statewide grassroots organization and financial advantage (his receipts $262,753 being and he entered 2010 with $133,072 cash on hand).  If Seifert wins by double digits, he can claim the mantle of the clear frontrunner.

There appears to be a very large number of undecided voters on the GOP side.  Most activists reported getting more direct mail pieces and volunteer phone calls from Seifert’s campaign.  Emmer and Hann both sent one mailing and made calls in their home areas.

We have assembled the campaign finance numbers for the gubernatorial candidates, the state parties and the legislative caucuses.  The figures are interesting. One interesting feature we noticed is the DFL Party spent over a million dollars in the off-year, which means their overhead is abominable. Also, one other component we acknowledge regarding the political parties is because they are not limited in their campaign contribution amounts they are able to On-Demand fundraising. This means they can spend and raise, spend and raise so maybe the DFL is not in as bad of a state as we suspect. 

It’s hard to argue a Special Election that retains a seat for a particular party as a bellwether or indicator of any forthcoming trend, but the opposite can be true. With the State of the Union Address, start of the legislative session and the 2010 elections pending there are some factors in play, but we doubt the declining popularity of President Barack Obama (D) is one of those factors. Special Election outcomes are mainly about local issues.

Now we are not willing to go out on a limb and claim to be able to read the tea leaves of Owatonna, Faribault, Waseca or the surrounding communities, but here are dynamics we see in play. The field of candidates are: Jason John Engbrecht (DFL), Mike Parry (R) and Roy Srp (IP) and usually the Independence Party candidate—other than at a regional level like a Congressional District—has marginal impact on the overall result, but being the former Mayor of Waseca Srp could draw votes in a low turnout election. The question is which side will he draw from is dependent on his past municipal record if fiscally Conservative he could hurt the Parry especially in Waseca, where Parry served on the city council, if closer aligned with the DFL the impact may be felt by Engbrecht. We feel comfortable saying we believe Srp will not win.

Now Republicans want to retain the seat of their past Senate Minority Leader Dick Day (R), who became more of a caricature in recent years, in order to staunch the flow of loses in the Senate. Currently, the DFL holds a veto proof majority of 46 votes and another member only strengthens the majorities hand further.  The DFL has gained a foothold in the region with first the victory of Rep. Patty Fritz (DFL-26A, Faribault) over long-term incumbent Linda Boudreau (R) in 2004 and the election of Rep. Kory Kath (DFL-26B, Owatonna) in 2008 in an open seat vacated by Connie Ruth (R). Republicans are not overly confident. 

As a recently elected School Board Member, Engbrecht gets the advantage of being an officeholder without a long voting record to defend; Parry, who also has a short electoral career with one term on the Waseca City Council, appears to be emphasizing more of a business background, with his recent experience in Radio. The question is if Parry is more of a shock jock type as was Dan Ochsner (R) against Tarryl Clark (DFL) in St. Cloud the electorate could be turned off. The incident of Parry’s Tweet where he referred to President Obama as “…Power Hungry Angry Black Man,” may only encourage voters to see him as a person who speaks or tweets before he thinks. There is a question if racist statements have significant impact in all parts of the state.

Special Elections are beneficial to Republicans because of lower voter turnout and because Republican voters tend to attend church more regularly and thereby are easier to target the Sunday before an election thus providing great impact from a concentrated voting bloc. Littering a church parking lot with flyers and literature is standard practice in these elections. DFLers have not conceded the religious vote and seek a more tolerant voter concerned with broader social issues other than Abortion and Gay Marriage.        

If you look at the Special Election results over the last thirty years you will see the nearly unblemished string of Republican victories remain unblemished until the election of Mary Ellen Otremba (DFL) on November 4, 1997, to fill the vacancy left by the death of her husband Ken.  The election of a widow can be argued as a “sympathy” election, but it is the single break in the sequence of Special Election successes. Republicans ran the table starting with the election of Ben Omann (IR) on February 22, 1980 until the election of Rebecca Otto (DFL) February 11, 2003. Now of course one must exclude DFL victories in “safe” DFL districts like Minneapolis, St. Paul or Duluth so we believe the elections of Andy Dawkins (DFL) in 1987, Alice Hausman (DFL) in 1989, Carol Flynn (DFL) 1990 or Dale Swapinski (DFL) in 1999 do not challenge our premise. Although some may argue the election of Twila Ring (DFL) and Tony Kinkel (DFL) in 1999 are harbingers of the decline. The best place to see Special Election results is from the Legislative Reference Library. http://www.leg.state.mn.us/lrl/histleg/spelect.asp   

If the outbound bracket is the election of Bob Kerlin (R) in 1999, the argument is still valid. The ability for Republicans to have a slam dunk on Special Elections closed. Moving into the new Millennium the DFL began to challenge Republicans in marginal districts and even ones thought to be solidly in the Republican column. The election of Otto is the first example followed by DFL victories by Terri Bonoff (DFL) November 22, 2005, Tarryl Clark (DFL) and Larry Haws (DFL) December 27, 2005.

The DFL’s ability to deliver elections in “competitive” senate districts is directly attributable to the election methods of Mike Kennedy and the various teams he assembles. We have watched these elections deliver a focused message and a sharp differentiation between the DFL candidates and their respective opponents. In elections where the DFL is thought to be the odd one out somehow Kenner pulls another rabbit out of the hat. Will see how his luck holds today.

In an attempt to garner some street cred in the halls of the State Capitol Citypages scribe Matt Snyders penned a story entitled "Meet the Lobbyists: The Unseen Hands Behind Some of the Biggest Bills in Minnesota." Interestingly, the online version is entitled "The 10 Most Influential  Minnesota Lobbyists: Meet the Invisible Hands Behind Some of the State's Biggest Bills." There are some cute names for the different people singled out which we think are worthnoting, but the piece lacks any real punch if the Twin Cities alternative weekly seeks to stir the pot. Where isgraft, where is the coruption, or unsubstantiated allegations to that effect.

Gerald Seck=Mr. Ethanol, Mr. Nice Guy=Ted Grindal, Daddy Warbucks=John Knapp, The Chambermaid=Bill Blazer, Doctor Goodno=Kevin Goodno, The Black Widow=MaryAnn Campo, The Unholy Relic=Ron Jerich, The Rasputin of Parks and Rec=Brian Rice, The Weed Killer=James Backstrom and The Gambler=Dick Day.

The titles are interesting, but questions as to the value or the impact is something well worth debating.

Has our source for barbs and wit become an establishment periodicaL?

http://www.citypages.com/2010-01-20/news/the-10-most-influential-lobbyists-in-minnesota/     

Former Minnesota Republican Party Chair candidate and retired Veteran of both Iraq and Vietnam Joe Repya will enter the fray for the Independence Party endorsement for Governor. He contacted us early this morning to announce his plans. We had speculated his mulling of the idea when a website of RepyaforGovernor.com was registered and a post office box was opened under the same name in Eagan, where Repya resides. At the time denied any intentions or any knowledge of the filing, we learned of the PO Box later, thanks to one of our ever-vigilant informed sources.  

It appears the Indepence Party will not be a simple cakewalk this go round since Public Relations Executive Tom Horner, is preparing to file paperwork for the same. This is another former Republican headed off to the land of Independia. A place where there are fewer rules and fewer obligations.

The Indepence Party has maintained a slight impact in Minnesota statewide, mainly by playing the role of spoiler. The highwater mark, of course, being Jesse Ventura's election in 1998 with 36.98%. Dean Barkley is the next most sucessful IPer with 15.1% in the contentious U.S. Senate with Al Franken (D)and Norm Coleman (R).

We expect this contest will provide more grist for the mill.